CaryWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS getting some company on that island GFS was beginning to build a Gilligan raft and sail away on the 12z I thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, CaryWx said: GFS was beginning to build a Gilligan raft and sail away on the 12z I thought NAM came in and blocked the passage out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I knew it was over when we missed out on the third threat here. This won't be anything more than token flakes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 0Z 12k Nam looking more GFS like each and every run as we draw closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 If this was only correct.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, wncsnow said: If this was only correct.. Looks like GFS to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone? Yeah, I'm good to part with the week or two of 97+ early August weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Really hate the GFS ain't working... the GEFS looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Really hate the GFS ain't working... the GEFS looked good. Man, that does look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 GFS finally got unstuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 @wncsnow you ok with this? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Last 2 HRRR runs are trying to get a coastal cranking at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I must admit... the HRRR, and it may be wrong, but has looked quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 The 12z HRW FV3 looks mighty impressive for northern NC southern VA fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 12z HRW FV3 looks mighty impressive for northern NC southern VA fwiw You have a map? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 You have a map? thanks12z FV3Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z FV3 Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk The nam just came out has most of the snow now in va mtns and towards dc. Which you think is more right in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: The nam just came out has most of the snow now in va mtns and towards dc. Which you think is more right in your opinion? Right now, a blend of the RGEM, GFS, and Euro, which favors the mountains, foothills and up into central VA I think between Martinsville and Lynchburg will do quite well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I think a general 1-2" will be common up this way with maybe 3-4" in some of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm. I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year Ever since it’s “upgrade” it’s had a dry bias for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Ever since it’s “upgrade” it’s had a dry bias for sure. Other than the lowly ICON the NAM has been the absolute worst model this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there My only hesitation is all those areas without decent elevation are going to have temp (34-36 degrees outside of the heaviest rates) sun angle, soil temp issues (in descending order of importance here). Banding will need to develop to get the job done. The shift to mid-day instead of early morning hurts us here. In fact the 12z RGEM pulls decent banding through Raleigh in the evening, where timing had actually improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: @wncsnow you ok with this? No he’s predicting torch all torch lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I think a general 1-2" will be common up this way with maybe 3-4" in some of the mountains. I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me Ensembles looked better than the Op and Euro actually improved. Hard to call a 1-2” advisory snow a bust if it doesn’t amount to that much haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 GFS continues to put a few inches down around my area. Not sure if it's right but it's been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications. Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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