Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 GFS says party over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Widespread flizzard incoming on the GFS! Seriously, this threat is dead unless some dramatic shift happens bc 1) snowing in the afternoon lightly with surface temps above freezing will not stick and 2) the upper level system though strong is strung out and lacking moisture meaning the ceiling is extremely low even if all available factors in this setup were favorable. There’s no costal influence and waiting on a lee-side trough to develop enough forcing to squeeze whatever little moisture is available with downsloping and delayed cold to produce accumulating snow is like hoping your high school girlfriend will call you back. When the coastal left the chat a couple days ago this threat died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS says party over. That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning. The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS says party over. That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning. The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so. Honestly that portion of this “event” is most interesting. With the upper level trough and cold pool going directly overhead there would be convective elements and you could get some heavy snow showers. That’s not really shown on other guidance but to me thar has a higher chance of producing accumulating snow than anything with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: That's round two. Don't feel like posting from my phone, but for the main event a sizeable improvement, bringing the energy south. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business. Looking decent up this way for a sloppy inch. One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: One more shift and Raleigh would be in business for white rain. Look at your surface temp maps for that portion, everyone’s above freezing (even into Virginia) and rates look light. I agree that temps would be an issue, but I think it's possible (although perhaps unlikely) that rates would win out. Temps fall to just below freezing in the heaviest bands in Greensboro. I could see Raleigh falling into the 33-34 range given heavy enough precip, if that band can manage to hold together past the Triad It's a long shot, but my main point is that it's a small step in the right direction for those of us in the Piedmont, towards some fun nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Totals aren't as good on the GFS this time. This run vs last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 This is what I was alluding to. I’m so far on the nw fringe of the forum no one can really relate. Still a 2-5” type ordeal here but it’s still on an island with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Canadian doesn't have much of anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 UK has zilch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: This is what I was alluding to. I’m so far on the nw fringe of the forum no one can really relate. Still a 2-5” type ordeal here but it’s still on an island with that. I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Still believe this has the potential to put down a light even 1-3" type of event for @Buddy1987 , @Disc and myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m not sold this is an event even your way. This is a very fragile setup for snow much less accumulating snow. RGEM depicts how these usually end up and it shows serious temperature issues. No one’s going to hop on board a system on this forum where only a few locations have any chance to see accumulation in NC and VA with a very low high end even if all things break correct. No disrespect to you fringe folks, this just isn’t a good event! I’m def not discounting any of that by any means. I agree with you for sure. My expectations are below tempered like basically expecting the grass to get coated lol so no disrespect taken whatsoever. I thoroughly enjoy this forum and the people that are in it. Your posts are always very fact based 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The way the long range is looking, this might be the last threat of the winter for piedmont areas. Too bad its look so paltry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The way the long range is looking, this might be the last threat of the winter for piedmont areas. Too bad its look so paltry. Yea I gotta agree…. Im NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above 75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea I gotta agree…. Im NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above 75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao You live in the wrong region my friend… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I was hoping for 80 myself. If no snow, bring the heat! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea I gotta agree…. Im NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above 75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao Good Lord man, I wouldn't trade Carolina weather with ANYONE! And I've lived here all 51 years of my life.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Good Lord man, I wouldn't trade Carolina weather with ANYONE! And I've lived here all 51 years of my life.. I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 what did the afternoon EURO and ENS show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Yea I gotta agree…. Im NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above 75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao I've lived here in Wolf Laurel since May 2017 and the temp at my house hasn't climbed over 80 once. Most summer days at this elevation top out in the low 70's. And we average about 50" of snow annually. There's places in the southeast that you can find what you're looking for without giving up sweet tea lol. I lived south of Columbia for 25 years, so I know how you feel. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: what did the afternoon EURO and ENS show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, PantherJustin said: Yea I gotta agree…. Im NEVER that guy, but it’s about that time lol I hate any heat….it’s 63 here today and it’s already making me wanna begin my preparation for yet another miserable Carolina Summer. I’d give anything to live in Minneapolis or Somewhere it’s just never above 75 I’ve lived here 30 yrs and hate every minute from March-October lmao Agree 100000% I love thunderstorms but abhor the heat and humidity. I would do well at about 5000ft in our mountains. I want to always have a breeze with days no warmer then 68 and summer nights around 50. That's my perfect summer wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Good NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Good NAM run. Yeah...I don't buy what it's selling. Tried to get the coastal going. 18z NAM strikes again with some left field solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone? Yeah, but living in a climate that rarely gets above 70 means you live in the upper mid west. I'll pass!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 ANDDDDD FROM WAY OUT IN LEFT FIELD HERE COMES THE NAAAAAMMMMM!!! Almost looks like it tried to get a coastal involved, kinda a hybrid system… oh poor NAM, you terrible model you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 GFS getting some company on that island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: GFS getting some company on that island Yep was just going to literally type that. Icon looks more gfs like as well with band in SVA. I guess if I set goalpost for 2” I’d be pleasantly surprised and happy for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now