BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I hope the GFS/GEFS are on the right track but I'm not putting all my eggs in there basket... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute Kinda feels like we're being presented with 17 different ways to fail and then, the GFS, which shows us getting fringed and DC pummeled...Climo is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: RAH That sounds very similar to the other system we had. The coastal low was not a player and we had to get snow from the trough swinging through. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead. .....Spring is at the doorstep. Had a low of 19 this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead. .....Spring is at the doorstep. Not in the Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: RGEM looks like it was about to produce a big storm but it was also going to be pretty far north Yea that baby is pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea that baby is pretty amped Very similar look to Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The end of the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: RAH If that's RAH it's the same from discussion 24hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z nam vs. 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Sharing thoughts from this afternoon from Wakefield (covers NE NC/S-E VA). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 These last 2 or 3 "disturbances" have been grasping straws at best. Too much northern stream and we the NAO is positive.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z GFS coming in flat. I am forgetting this "event" now. Maybe i'll be surprised by a flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 @BornAgain13flush hit 18z gfs I just feel like this is thread the needle needs to be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13flush hit 18z gfs I just feel like this is thread the needle needs to be perfect Yep a good hit for here per 18z GFS. would love to have a whole area hit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The timing is much quicker on the 18z but makes sense with a weaker more progressive system. It would amount to a flizzard at best for most in NC in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 WRAL just said odds are increasing this afternoon. However warm ground temps would limit accumulations to elevated surfaces near VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking… The polar jet is breaking records this year and with La Nina weakening the subtropical jet I guess the cool and dry forecasts panned out, but was still nice to see snow at least though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking… yeah I just don't think we are going to get the job done here on any kind of make up event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 WBTV surprised me this evening. Has precip starting around 1-3am Sunday morning. Showed 2 models both with some wintry precip for CLT. No mention of amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 European ensemble shows 10% chance of Raleigh getting 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Not bad in this neck of the woods. Models finally converging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 From mike maze: Both the European and the GFS are still showing some snow on Sunday, which at this time should not stick. The timing on both shows it to be a morning event and so later in the weather should be mostly dry. Tune in at 10PM on Fox 50 to see how this evolves. @WRALWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18z Euro was actually an improvement over 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 NAM and RDPS are laughing at us for thinking there is a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM and RDPS are laughing at us for thinking there is a threat Lol drier than the Sahara. What a year to track models inside 100 hours side note not that it matters much but icon looks like arse as well. Not really expecting the gfs to produce here at 0z. Hope I’m wrong but trend seems to reduce qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 RGEM wasn't to bad... didn't get to finish its run... the NAM however was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: RGEM wasn't to bad... didn't get to finish its run... the NAM however was awful. I hate these kind of storms man. Geographically you and I get stuck in no man’s land because southeast crew could care less about mostly cloudy skies and most of the MA crew is all around DC northern VA area hours from us so it’s like we don’t have a happy medium 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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