Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[olafminesaw]

GSO Monday morning

[tarheelwx]

I think the key takeaway is that precip is creeping north and west. It is also starting in such a way as to maximize opportunity for ice as far as temps are concerned.  
TW

[tarheelwx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

GSO Monday morning

That dog’ll hunt right there……. For zr that is. 
TW

[burrel2]

54 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

At GSP, the average high is 52 in mid January.  By February 1st, it's 54.  By March 1st it's 60.  A six degree change over February is a strong signal that our time for snow is running out, especially during the daytime.  Obviously we can all recount exceptions to this rule, but the further we go, the more perfect you need the setup to cash in.  I know this is a Debbie Downer post, but given that the pattern in the East starting in mid February is not ideal, I just don't see any meaningful snows (>1"), especially in Upstate SC along I-85 where I am located.  I have seen many winters and at some point the cold exhausts itself and you're left with "manufacturing" the cold to get snow.  It does happen, but rarely.  This post does not apply to CNC, WNC, and VA where they are closer to the cold source.

 

Climatology is a b!tch.

Why are you looking at average high temperatures to determine when the best chances for snow climatologically speaking? I'd think looking at historic snowfalls over the past 100 years. is more prudent. You know we have that data too, right? and Mid-Late February is "climatologically" the best time for our area to score a significant snowfall.

Does that mean we will get a snowfall this year in our climo best time??? who knows, probably not b/c it's rare in general to get a significant snowfall any time during the winter for our area. But there's no reason to call winter over at the first of February b/c "climatology".

Also how are you declaring the pattern starting in mid-february will not be ideal? 1. that's 10 days away and we don't really know how it will shake out. 2. The signals are mixed right now how the pattern will look in 10 days. It certainly doesn't look like a complete torch with a west coast trough and SER... Here's the latest GEFS mean for February 15th... not horrible.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GSO Monday morning

Caution is advised when looking at any Canadian based output due to cold bias. Posted below is a comparison at 2 meters for tomorrow at 7AM EST between RGEM, NAM, WRF, and GFS and the RGEM is ridiculously colder all over like in Jackson, MS, Birmingham, Wash DC, much of VA and TN, etc.

 

At Jackson, MS, for example, it has 16 vs 30 for the other models. It has Birmingham at 23 vs low 30s on others. Washington, DC, at 12 vs 20s others. Richmond at 14 vs 26 on others.
 

That’s not to say there can’t or won’t be any ZR in NC the next day, but I hope the cold bias is taken into account.

[olafminesaw]

RAP is a weenie run. More sleet and snow than ZR, and pretty amped

[burrel2]

Not a bad look for mid-February... pattern breakdown cancel?

[burrel2]

CMC also snowing over central NC at 240 hrs... the run was full of opportunities in the long range.

[burrel2]

Where's this pattern break down again that some ppl keep calling for?

[NorthHillsWx]

Good to see some long range activity again. Definitely don’t see a torch incoming either. Those bemoaning the fact we’re in February need to stop, yes it’s trending warmer and yes the Sun angle is beginning to become a problem but the fact there is more warm air available means that we have the potential for stronger storms. The battle between warm and cold is literally what fuels some of our most famous late winter storms so there being more warmth available is not necessarily a bad thing. Complaining about snow not sticking around is foolish, we live in the south my 3” of snow in mid January evaporated in 2 days despite the cold temps and low sun angle. The big March storm in the upstate in 2009 had snow on the ground in shaded spots for 7-8 days after the event in Clemson. Most of the forum has over 50% climo and some are over climo with a month of prime winter left. Usually we joke about fantastic February saving us when we have nothing at this point then get an inch or two at the end of the month or early March. If that happens most will hit climo this year, it’s not like many average 10” of snow here. Great January and hopefully we can pull a big storm in a big storm month with a half decent look to the pattern 

[NorthHillsWx]

Monday’s event looks entirely timing dependent. If precip arrives before 12z it will likely be icy. If it arrives in afternoon it will be rain. That’s the difference in models right now, all models have us cold Monday morning so if the precip arrives before it warms up there will be some ice problems. 

[jlh]

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Good to see some long range activity again. Definitely don’t see a torch incoming either. Those bemoaning the fact we’re in February need to stop, yes it’s trending warmer and yes the Sun angle is beginning to become a problem but the fact there is more warm air available means that we have the potential for stronger storms. The battle between warm and cold is literally what fuels some of our most famous late winter storms so there being more warmth available is not necessarily a bad thing. Complaining about snow not sticking around is foolish, we live in the south my 3” of snow in mid January evaporated in 2 days despite the cold temps and low sun angle. The big March storm in the upstate in 2009 had snow on the ground in shaded spots for 7-8 days after the event in Clemson. Most of the forum has over 50% climo and some are over climo with a month of prime winter left. Usually we joke about fantastic February saving us when we have nothing at this point then get an inch or two at the end of the month or early March. If that happens most will hit climo this year, it’s not like many average 10” of snow here. Great January and hopefully we can pull a big storm in a big storm month with a half decent look to the pattern 

Completely agree, still plenty of time to pull some more. We've had a few our here on the coast as late as early April, though obviously uncommon. 

[PantherJustin]

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Lol that storm at the end of the GFS is pure weenie

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[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[BornAgain13]

Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR, RAP and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va.

Post maps 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va.

 

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Post maps 

https://home.pivotalweather.com/

 

Look for yourself lol

[Prismshine Productions]

Almost zero ENS support...

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[PantherJustin]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR, RAP and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va.

Yea that’s actually becoming very interesting for Certain parts of State I just looked ….. hmmm 

[weatherlover]

9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea that’s actually becoming very interesting for Certain parts of State I just looked ….. hmmm 

Which part of the state?

[Prismshine Productions]

Please Lord let all of us get snow on Valentines so we can all have a special moment with our significant others... Amen

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[PantherJustin]

23 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Which part of the state?

Imo this a CAD area type thing…. If anything at all 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[JoshM]

17 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

4% for MBY

 

[Isopycnic]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

I’m looking forward to my 0.01” of sleet

[kvegas-wx]

2 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Please Lord let all of us get snow on Valentines so we can all have a special moment with our significant others... Amen

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I look at it the other way around, a big VD snow means I aint gotta take her out and she can cook me a big ole sketti dinner.  I will build the fire though. 

[Isopycnic]

22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I look at it the other way around, a big VD snow means I aint gotta take her out and she can cook me a big ole sketti dinner.  I will build the fire though. 

[PackGrad05]

RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning...

However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain...  temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives.

RGEM still shows a brief period.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning...

However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain...  temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives.

RGEM still shows a brief period.

My bet is there is an inconsequential 10 minute period of sleet at the onset as the precip overcomes the dry air then a transition to the type of miserable rain that makes us want spring.