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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Globals are now trying to pop a decent coastal system Monday/Tuesday. Sadly, there is no cold air and it’s all rain

Need to will it about 60 miles more northwest up this way, as the 540 line is right on top of me. Interesting setup nonetheless 

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Fact is, here, we have already exceeded our average snow for an entire winter. We have between 9-10" total so far. The average is somewhere around 6-7". I hope we get more and I believe we will, but if we didn't, it wouldn't be a bad winter here.

I’m at 6.5” I really can’t cry either…. Doesn’t mean I won’t :lol:

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26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Fact is, here, we have already exceeded our average snow for an entire winter. We have between 9-10" total so far. The average is somewhere around 6-7". I hope we get more and I believe we will, but if we didn't, it wouldn't be a bad winter here.

Deleted comment.  I was looking at the wrong chart.  

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20 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Fact is, here, we have already exceeded our average snow for an entire winter. We have between 9-10" total so far. The average is somewhere around 6-7". I hope we get more and I believe we will, but if we didn't, it wouldn't be a bad winter here.

We’re at 3.4” here. 3.2” from one event and 2 small events where I measured 0.10” each time. We’re still below ours but what hurts is the potential. We had storms go east, west, and most recently south of us. We had a nice snow event and extended cold so our winter is definitely not a bust but man what could’ve been if any of the 4 events we just missed on had happened differently 

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The good news in the long range is overall I see no sign of an extended torch. The SER never looks to get established and we mostly keep the +PNA, though there are mixed signals with that mid month. Western ridging seems to be fairly prominent throughout so i don’t think winter is dead and we likely will have another shot at a storm

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hard to think about winter right now. Sun is out and pushing 70 at the moment! Took the dog for a walk during my lunch break and forgot how much I love these kind of days

Wow! Still in the mid 40s in parts of the Piedmont. The wedge is starting to break here though. Above 50 and no longer foggy/misty

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GFS NW trend for the Monday night system:
image.thumb.gif.fb01f2590cc18453a8a888dd8fa5a803.gif

But, as mentioned, the surf temps just aren’t quite there.

image.thumb.png.f4f2cb0447c8366bbb8b2e01247e5fbd.png

Nearly iso-thermal up thru about 800mb. With enough dynamics it could pull some flakes to the surface. Worth a keeping an eye on I guess… especially since our weekend system trended in the opposite direction at this lead time.

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