Prismshine Productions Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 Euro FREEZING RAINSent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkGive me bothSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Eps looks super flat. Gonna need to hold on to the amped gfs on future runs as long as possible. The way this winter has gone we def need to root for more amperage; not less. Not a terrible place to be though. Just need a low to pop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 According to Judah the pattern is ripe! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Well 18Z GFS Op holds atleast…. 30-32 for all Along and N/W I-85 …but eventually Verbatim turns to rain as system pulls away for ALL of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: Well 18Z GFS Op holds atleast…. 30-32 for all Along and N/W I-85 …but eventually Verbatim turns to rain as system pulls away for ALL of NC It's dropping 2 inches of liquid in central GA/SC. It's a great run considering the majority of guidance is on the suppressed side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, burrel2 said: It's dropping 2 inches of liquid in central GA/SC. It's a great run considering the majority of guidance is on the suppressed side of things. No I completely agree it’s still there that’s all I was saying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just slight differences between the GFS and Euro with respect to the cold air push... This is valid for 7am Sunday morning; euro on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The problem remains the parent high is retreating as the storm hits. You won't maintain a good wedge when that happens and ZR will be self limiting. The next high doesn't build in until the system passes. This run looked even closer to in situ CAD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 No reason to be pessimistic on the thermal profiles right now. CMC, ukmet, Euro, ICON are all much colder than the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Get those generators ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Get those generators ready Yep. Long duration event with temps in mid 20s and a meso high popping in VA to reinforce the cold surface air, ballgame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Precip moves in About six hours sooner this run. over 1 inch of freezing rain for KCLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ukmet is an amped rainstorm... hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 31 minutes ago, JoshM said: Precip moves in About six hours sooner this run. over 1 inch of freezing rain for KCLT Which would be 1/4” max… gotta take 75% off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Which would be 1/4” max… gotta take 75% off If the in-situ cad is stronger and/or the precip gets in sooner then it’d be more like 40-50% off. Another long week of tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there... for which day night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 6z GFS still has a major ice storm this morning... 0z euro jumped on board with a little more snow/ice. We will see how this continues to go. UK still has it. The cmc is still not there... Do you know if the Ukie was still amped? Also you saying the cmc is still not there made me laugh just for the fact of I’m not sure if it’s been there at all this winter. It’s still trying to figure out 3 storms ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: for which day night? Sunday/Sunday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What the heck was the 0z GFS on... I wouldn't complain about 7 inches but *what*...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Only model that has been good this winter for sure is the GFS all the rest have sucked DI mean even the Euro been caving all winterSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That looks like it was about to be a big problem...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Call me a weenie but thr 84hr nam and rgem look a lot like the euro at 500mb. They all are stronger with the cold push and only keep a small piece of of energy back towards southern Utah. the gfs wants to hangs more energy back in Texas and has a stronger trough as a result and has less of a cold push out in front.(seemingly because it keeps more energy held back) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing Cold air is marginal on the GFS, isn't marginal on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Alright, i've looked at all the data and I think I know what we need to happen for the best outcome... lol. It's hard to piece together because there's so many moving parts but here's my theory: The GFS and last night's ukmet are leaving both lobes of the shortwave behind when the first front comes through Friday. As a result, the front doesn't push as far south so our mid level cold air is more marginal. By leaving both lobes behind, they cut off in tandem with each other and swing around to create a longer trough as they get pushed our way. You wind up with one lobe in oklahoma and the other lobe swinging under it making a stronger neutral tilted trough. This allows for a stronger storm with more qpf farther north, but also more WAA. (This actually helps the wedging high pressure though b/c of more confluence in front of the trough.) That's why you see more ice on the GFS and basically no chance of snow for anyone. The Euro/ICON/NAM all allow the front lobe of our shortwave to get caught in the frontal system on friday. They're doing this b/c the shortwave dropping through minnesota is stronger and further south I think. As a result, there is a much better cold air press that comes our way behind the front. The remaining lobe cuts off in western texas and is weaker than the GFS shows b/c it's not both pieces working in tandem anymore. This lobe still cuts off though and strengthens before rotating our way. But it's not as long/neutral tilted as the GFS and we wind up with a weaker system with much more cold air to work with. This seems like the best recipe for our snow chances. The CMC is in the euro camp with respect to the frontal lobe getting sucked in to the first front... but it is taking the back lobe and phasing it in a third piece of energy way back towards the baja area. As a result the cut off low develops farther west (arizona//mexico border), than the euro and it's so far west that by the time it rotates our way we've completely lost our high pressure. This is the only model doing this with respect to the third piece of energy so I suspect it's wrong. All of this doesn't even factor in the kicker shortwave trough dropping down from Canada behind our storm which is clearly affecting the rate of decay and how much precip our main shortwave throws back our way. (though it seems this feature doesn't have as much effect b/c despite being modeled wildly different the storm outcome isn't effected too much amongst modeling from the changes). So all that being said... we need an outcome similar to what last night's euro showed, and the only improvements on that outcome being a slightly more consolidated/stronger cutoff/5h low (but not at the expense of holding back the frontal lobe portion early on) to allow for a little more precip as it swings through. That has the potential to drop 3-5 inches of snow for a wide swath of people on our board I think. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Cold air is marginal on the GFS, isn't marginal on Euro. The Euro definitely has a stronger cold push to begin- but 1038 over Maine is not going to get it done especially if the system is stronger than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 You say a 1038 over Maine won't get it done..... for what form of precip and for who? I would say a 1038 over Maine is plenty strong for freezing rain in CAD areas. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: You say a 1038 over Maine won't get it done..... for what form of precip and for who? I would say a 1038 over Maine is plenty strong for freezing rain in CAD areas. TW It will get it done, but it’s 1038 over Maine at the beginning, it very quickly moves to Newfoundland. I should have elaborated. Big CAD need the high moving into that position with the precip, not leaving. Even with the cold push on the EURO it has nothing to sustain it and the only reason it hangs on is bc the system is so weak you don’t have the 850 warmth we always see with stronger systems. My point is, in this setup we’re going to have to thread the needle to see anything more than nuisance ice. The Euro is the best bet but sadly it’s on an island and not impressive to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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