yotaman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, RT1980 said: Yep, 99% of our memorable snows come in December! Next thing you know people will be angry if it’s not in the upper 90’s in May! I think everyone will be angry if the temp hits the upper 90's in May. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 NAM’d…. . 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Flizzard alert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Mid month fantasy land 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS still bullish on Monday morning. NAM flip flopping. Actually starting to seem like some areas Raleigh east may actually have a chance at a small or novelty event. I’m sure Euro is Dr No but GFS has been consistent and it has been shown on NAM as well… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Bing Bong! The first Monday of 2022 looks….interesting https://t.co/JHUN3nrKiv 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Happy January! https://twitter.com/weatherswx/status/1476991919028903936?s=21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The 12Z NAM (both 32km and 12km) were not impressed... Neither was the 18Z 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The 12Z NAM (both 32km and 12km) were not impressed... Neither was the 18Z 12km. Junk model lol. Globals are starting to converge on “something”. Ever since the nam was upgraded it produces paltry and meager precip amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Junk model lol. Globals are starting to converge on “something”. Ever since the nam was upgraded it produces paltry and meager precip amounts. Interesting. In year's past, I've given more credit to NAM within a shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Interesting. In year's past, I've given more credit to NAM within a shorter range. Yea I have no clue what happened to it after the upgrade but I remember back to the days with the SREF’s when they were juiced up and the NAM was about to come out watch out! Now it is beyond paltry. Now with 2m temps and ice storms all day still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Buddy - I assume you are referring to a NAM upgrade a few years back, right? Nowadays, it does have some moments where it is skimpy on precip in the 2-3 day range like this, but seems like in other cases it is more in line with the other models...and it still tends to be over amped with precip once it clues in...agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 For Sun-Mon, the cold air is coming from the top down, so stating the obvious, but the stronger and farther south this gets in the mid & upper levels, the better for cold air. Precip rate is important as well for getting a changeover. Still an evolving situation. I swear, we've had 3 or 4 of these rain to snow setups in a row over the past few years. Crappy setups really, but what can you do (better than nothing) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The 12z suite of Model Op and Ensemble Means was positive for colder ideas going into early-mid Jan. More consolidated Aleutian Low / more western North America ridging. Let's see where it goes in the coming days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Really hoping we can reel this one in... been watching for a while now but would love to see us all get a good one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z gfs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 18z gfs Mother Nature reminding the foothills that we cashed out our luck for a while with that Dec 2018 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, griteater said: Buddy - I assume you are referring to a NAM upgrade a few years back, right? Nowadays, it does have some moments where it is skimpy on precip in the 2-3 day range like this, but seems like in other cases it is more in line with the other models...and it still tends to be over amped with precip once it clues in...agree? Yes exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 The flizzard alert has entered 48 hrs until ground truth begins 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 This shows what our best case scenario looks like more or less: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Nearly spit my coffee out when I saw the SREF plumes for Hickory this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I mean I’ve seen snow stick well when it was 70 the day before but I don’t know about when it was 70 the entire month before. Excited to have something to track though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Watch that shortwave on the west coast,rockies,plains around day 4/5.if that can dig a bit more could be a big hit its going to run right into that cold dome pressing down. Carry on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z GFS: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z Model data so far looks very encouraging. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z Model data so far looks very encouraging. Would love to see the Euro jump on board. Euro: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, eyewall said: Euro: Love it! GFS has led the way with this one so far... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Hearing of close to a foot in Raleigh on The Weather Channel using the GFS. What the crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Hearing of close to a foot in Raleigh on The Weather Channel using the GFS. What the crap? LOL do they not realize the soil temps are in the 60's? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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