Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Canadian just has rain and looks further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This threat is looking really promising, imo. GFS seems like it's on the most amped/warm side of guidance but it's still a solid crippling ice storm for CAD regions. Ukmet and ICON aren't as strong with the shortwave and looks to be setting up for possible front end snow hit before going to sleet/freezing in CAD regions, (signficant winter storm). Canadian and last night's Euro are cold enough for all snow for lots of folks, but just a little too weak/surpressed with the shortwave to throw precip back our way. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If the Euro comes in with a similar look as the ICON/Ukmet then we're definitely cooking with gas on this one. An all snow event is pretty much out of the question, but lots of folks are definitely still in the game for a decent front end snow hit before sleet/freezing take over. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not a lot of ensemble support...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: The long range overall is looking warmer and warmer Spring is at our doorstep. 28 days until met spring begins. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Whatever ice the models are outputting right now aren’t even worth looking at, just look at the overall setup. Even 24 hours out they are usually 75% overdone regardless of the setup and regardless if the CAD is usually underdone because even with under done CAD on the models we don’t come close to what they show for IP or ZR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Still liking the set up for the period around the 12th - 14th. This overall set up has been pretty consistent on the GFS. Why not go for 5 weekends in a row with wintry weather in the SE? That would be rarity in my many years including the late 60's, 70's, and 80's. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I’m not sure I ever recall a winter where spacing was this crazy. It’s like every couple days it seems there’s a storm on top of a storm. Maybe because it’s being alluded to this year but trying to forecast these things has got to be an absolute nightmare. Even the first storm, against the apps I.e SVA into NC mountains, at hr 90 the gfs has a 1045 high up over eastern Quebec. That even noses down slightly you have a dramatically different forecast. The low will not move plow into that thing and you can already see the last couple runs the low is readjusting to the cold air up top. This is a fascinating next seven days plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out Very true…. Although not 100% it’s normally similar to UKMET … I’d much rather have UK/EURO ENS in my corner than GFS (it’s gotten better but it’s still goofus) everyone here wants to crown the GFS bc normally it shows us eye Candy we wanna see but that Jmo …. In A CAD scenario in NC I’d place any bet with anyone on NAM thermals, and normally take GFS/EURO mean and avg then slice by 40% to get a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I put a lot more stock in the GFS since the upgrade.... whether it shows winter weather or not... its clearly better than it used to be... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: I put a lot more stock in the GFS since the upgrade.... whether it shows winter weather or not... its clearly better than it used to be... Yea I would hedge large bets on gfs right now. It has been unreal so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is so close to a straight up snow storm. Super cold column just little suppressed. Verbatim it's a decent snow for Central Georiga and Central South Carolina though. I like where we're sitting at this point. Always good to be more worried about suppression 6 days out instead of temps. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z EURO has a similar set up as GFS, just not near the moisture and it's not amped. BUT... their is a signal there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro gets frozen precip in the area, but about 24 hours later, so not nearly as good a look with the high having retreated to the east significantly more than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Euro is so close to a straight up snow storm. Super cold column just little suppressed. Verbatim it's a decent snow for Central Georiga and Central South Carolina though. I like where we're sitting at this point. Always good to be more worried about suppression 6 days out instead of temps. Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro doesn't have much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro doesn't have much. 12 Euro FREEZING RAINSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO has a similar set up as GFS, just not near the moisture and it's not amped. BUT... their is a signal there Euro is so much better with the initial cold press... we would be talking good ratio's if it verifies. All we need is the Euro cold press and then the shortwave to hold together a little bit better and elongate/tilt a little harder as it swings through and you'd be talking a solid 3-6 inch powder dump for lots on this board. Also is it out of the realm of possibility to get that 2nd shortwave dropping down from Colorado close to phasing in on the backside of our main shortwave? I haven't seen any models show this yet, but dang it sure looks like the 12z euro was close... if those hooked up it could really get interesting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance That's part of the balance for sure, but the other part is the initial cold press... if we get more cold dry air in the mid-layers out in front of the storm it leaves more margin for amplification yet still cold enough to snow. It's probably not realistic to expect an all snow event if we get a decent system, but if we get a good cold/dry push out in front, we could really perform well on the front end thump similar to the big snow/sleet storm back in January. We will get the benefit of the adiabatic cooling in the 850-900mb levels from Southeast flow in to the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: That's part of the balance for sure, but the other part is the initial cold press... if we get more cold dry air in the mid-layers out in front of the storm it leaves more margin for amplification yet still cold enough to snow. It's probably not realistic to expect an all snow event if we get a decent system, but if we get a good cold/dry push out in front, we could really perform well on the front end thump similar to the big snow/sleet storm back in January. We will get the benefit of the adiabatic cooling in the 850-900mb levels from Southeast flow in to the mountains. Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I don’t work for WPC… but imo I’d draw something like this… as a general “idea” no amounts obviously but for that little track thing they do 5-7 days out … roast me if you want …. Just for fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 What's encouraging, and the take away from 12z, is most guidance is showing something wintry around Sunday/Monday time frame... 12z CMC is more suppressed but we will see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: I don’t work for WPC… but imo I’d draw something like this… as a general “idea” no amounts obviously but for that little track thing they do 5-7 days out … roast me if you want I agree with that, except I would draw the ice line a little further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I bet the Euro Ensemble members will have some big dogs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Definitely pulling for a solution more like the Euro, and just hope to get lucky on QPF. It advances the cold front much further than the GFS behind our end of the week rain maker. With some antecedent cold would definitely be more snow and sleet and not the ZR mess from the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Guessing the EPS wasn't hitting on much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Eps looks super flat. Gonna need to hold on to the amped gfs on future runs as long as possible. The way this winter has gone we def need to root for more amperage; not less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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