Ghicks Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: And just like that, the long range looks like a mess on the GFS Good weekend to all lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 FWIW, North TX especially dfw metro seems facing some serious troubles around 2/4 next week if model holds true. There are still many pending litigationa against ERCOT from last years winter storm. Crazy.Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not sure if we will see any more chances this year looking at the models this morning. There are some cold shots but no real winter storms at the moment. 1 and 3 is better than 0 and 3 I guess. Obviously once you pass mid Feb it gets much harder to get a good one in here. It was a good year for VA Beach and western areas but as of now it isn't memorable for the Triangle as we would end below normal in snowfall if no other chances materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Don’t fret too much by looking at long range. Remember the long range showed this being a monster storm for us. Things change. we still have a good amount of time. Yes it does get more difficult but February and even March have produced big ones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, eyewall said: Not sure if we will see any more chances this year looking at the models this morning. There are some cold shots but no real winter storms at the moment. 1 and 3 is better than 0 and 3 I guess. Obviously once you pass mid Feb it gets much harder to get a good one in here. It was a good year for VA Beach and western areas but as of now it isn't memorable for the Triangle as we would end below normal in snowfall if no other chances materialize. 00z Euro is showing a snow storm on day 9??? cmc has the same storm it's just a little suppressed. GFS has it too just too amped. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Raleigh needs a make up storm soon. I know it doesn't work that way but it would be nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, eyewall said: Raleigh needs a make up storm soon. I know it doesn't work that way but it would be nice. ***Correction ^^^ ALL OF NC/SC Upstate major cities need a Make up storm soon these 3 weeks have been cool I can’t lie (6.5”) now but I’m thirsty for a Feb 2004, Feb 2014 something where we see it coming 5 days out and it’s just pure Screenshots day in day out on the models. Realistically Asking, what’s a good storm? I say 8-12” ++ but that could vary for different areas so I’m curious what everyone thinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, PantherJustin said: ***Correction ^^^ ALL OF NC major cities need a Make up storm soon these 3 weeks have been cool I can’t lie (6.5”) now but I’m thirsty for a Feb 2004, Feb 2014 something where we see it coming 5 days out and it’s just pure Screenshots day in day out on the models. Realistically Asking, what’s a good storm? I say 8-12” ++ but that could vary for different areas so I’m curious what everyone thinks It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal. That would be good enough. For me though I would say anything 6+ here is a significant event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Seems the long range favors mixy slopfests. We shall see. This is the time of year where marginal temp events rarely work out and the wedge always wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Seems the long range favors mixy slopfests. We shall see. This is the time of year where marginal temp events rarely work out and the wedge always wins Still something to track… the Carolina classics 5” SN/ 1” IP/ 1/4” Ice lol I enjoy those they stay forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I agree PJ, bring 'em on!!!! By the way, check our the massive shift on the 12z Euro with the low presure track for mid/late week. Late Thursday night, the 00z Euro had the low over northern VT and not the 12z has it over Boone. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I agree PJ, bring 'em on!!!! By the way, check our the massive shift on the 12z Euro with the low presure track for mid/late week. Late Thursday night, the 00z Euro had the low over northern VT and not the 12z has it over Boone. TW So, has the Euro become the golden model again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Neither the Euro or GFS shows anything promising in the foreseeable future. It appears the SE ridge is going to strengthen and kill us. The clock is ticking so hopefully that trends weaker as we go on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Neither the Euro or GFS shows anything promising in the foreseeable future. It appears the SE ridge is going to strengthen and kill us. The clock is ticking so hopefully that trends weaker as we go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Mostly a whiff for now but otherwise before that it is ridging and systems riding that to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Mostly a whiff for now but otherwise before that it is ridging and systems riding that to our north. Definitely think there is a solid CAD event within the next 7-14 days. Lots of signals from the globals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Definitely think there is a solid CAD event within the next 7-14 days. Lots of signals from the globals. Yeah I see what you're saying. We will see if that can battle the SE ridging enough to get the job done. Of course that would most likely be more in the way of mixed-p/ice if it does materialize, but that is certainly more of the norm when it comes to winter weather out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I see what you're saying. We will see if that can battle the SE ridging enough to get the job done. Of course that would most likely be more in the way of mixed-p/ice if it does materialize, but that is certainly more of the norm when it comes to winter weather out here. Correct me if I’m wrong but seems that majority of solid CAD events come at the tail end of a warming period. We are going to see that mid next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Correct me if I’m wrong but seems that majority of solid CAD events come at the tail end of a warming period. We are going to see that mid next week. Am I correct that this month’s events have not been classic Carolina snows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Correct me if I’m wrong but seems that majority of solid CAD events come at the tail end of a warming period. We are going to see that mid next week. yes they certainly can for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Am I correct that this month’s events have not been classic Carolina snows? I would say they haven’t been the textbook Miller A’s that you’d typically see for widespread NC. Just enough dynamics in play to make it work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I would say they haven’t been the textbook Miller A’s that you’d typically see for widespread NC. Just enough dynamics in play to make it work. Thanks so much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I think the Southeast is gonna score big in Feb...Tom Brady retired, it is our time nowSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Am I correct that this month’s events have not been classic Carolina snows? They have not that is correct. We have not had a classic Miller A pound the state this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 About State winning today… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: About State winning today… I mean daymn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, eyewall said: It would take another 3 incher to get us to normal. What do you define as normal? For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December. I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What do you define as normal? For the 1991 - 2020 period, RDU "normal" (mean) is 5.2 inches: 2.6 in Jan, 1.4 in Feb, 0.3 in March, 0.1 in Nov, and 0.8 in December. I haven't been able to find the yearly numbers to calculate a median but I am certain it is significantly less than the mean. Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period? I will look in a minute, but first I have obtained the yearly snowfall amounts from 1991 - 2020. The median snowfall is......2.5 inches, less than half the mean! So RDU has already exceed its real "normal" snowfall for the year. Congratulations for us all. (note, I treat "T" as zeros in my calculations Here is the yearly data 1990-1991 0 1991-1992 0 1992-1993 2.5 1993-1994 4.4 1994-1995 2.2 1995-1996 14.6 1996-1997 0.4 1997-1998 2.4 1998-1999 0 1999-2000 25.8 2000-2001 2.6 2001-2002 10.8 2002-2003 7.4 2003-2004 14.9 2004-2005 0.9 2005-2006 0 2006-2007 1.6 2007-2008 0.5 2008-2009 7.1 2009-2010 8 2010-2011 9 2011-2012 0.9 2012-2013 1.7 2013-2014 5.8 2014-2015 7.9 2015-2016 1.4 2016-2017 0.8 2017-2018 8.9 2018-2019 8.9 2019-2020 2.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Do you know what the normal was for the previous 30 year period? For RDU, the mean for 1981 - 2010 was 6.75 " so when we lost the 1980's our mean went down a good bit. Our median plummeted though. It was 4.25". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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