franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It all depends on how the ridge axis setups out west. Definitely a risk of this being too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, snowmaker13 said: The 12z is completely different from the 0z run. The GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the threat. Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, burgertime said: Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. If you look at H500 there is divergence aloft which would induce pressure falls at the surface. This isn't a overrunning event or a zipper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: If you look at H500 there is divergence aloft which would induce pressure falls at the surface. This isn't a overrunning event or a zipper low. Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, burgertime said: Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo. I agree time will tell. Of course the europeans would tailor their models to their own climate better I hope the SE can score this system, would help the snow drought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceDoc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: I think that includes this weekend's snow, too. Here is the current one for next weekend's potential storm. Sold. Where do I sign? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, burgertime said: Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it. Trying to remember a time in my 46 years of SE winter watching that true arctic air was in place before we had a winter storm. The only 1 event I recall where arctic air arrived 48 hours before the event (single digit lows and highs in 20's) was 1/13/82 storm. Two other events I recall where arctic air arrived 24 before the storm was the great President's Day storm of 79 and the big overrunning storm of 1/7/1988. Point well taken that with true arctic outbreaks in the SE, we generally need the cold air arrival to coincide with the low pressure development. I might add that I have seen arctic air arrive at the same time as a storm such Jan 87 and March 80 where temps fell into the middle teens during the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Trying to remember a time in my 46 years of SE winter watching that true arctic air was in place before we had a winter storm. The only 1 event I recall where arctic air arrived 48 hours before the event (single digit lows and highs in 20's) was 1/13/82 storm. Two other events I recall where arctic air arrived 24 before the storm was the great President's Day storm of 79 and the big overrunning storm of 1/7/1988. Point well taken that with true arctic outbreaks in the SE, we generally need the cold air arrival to coincide with the low pressure development. I might add that I have seen arctic air arrive at the same time as a storm such Jan 87 and March 80 where temps fell into the middle teens during the storm. I believe we had an event either 2011 or 2014. We had cold air in place and an overrunning event. Flakes were tiny and it was a super dry powder. Ended up with around 3 inches and a high of like 22 IRRC. By the way for everyone reading, by all means get excited. Just temper it with the fact that IF it's that cold of an artic air mass you just gotta get lucky on the front end or wait for it to start to break down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billypg70 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Burger & Upstate T Ur both right with the storms u mentioned. 2014 was the year u were thinking of Burger. There is plenty of instances in my 51 years where their is arctic air in place. The storms tend to be 4 inches or less. Big dogs with arctic air in place tends to be once every 10 to 20 years. Last one I remember was Jan/88 So u could say we are past due. Ty all for the things u do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A 1051 and 1044...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Yeah, good luck getting any moisture north with this setup...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Too suppressive for the first storm chances but my god what a pattern setting up... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 so much for a February pattern flip to a torch... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 -50 F surface temp around the Canada/US border.... whew! It's been a long long time since we've seen -50 or colder temps there, pretty sure it hasn't happened since I was a kid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Poof! ... there it goes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1054!Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Double barrel 1050+... Been a long time Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Double barrel 1050+... Been a long time Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Serious serious cold air up there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This run finds a way to not produce a huge winter storm for us, but if it's right with the large scale features then we are locked loaded with tons of potential starting after the front passes on day 7. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 you won't see a better 8-14 outlook from CPC than this for Southeast snow storms. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tigerchick224 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 you won't see a better 8-14 outlook from CPC than this for Southeast snow storms.https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.phpOh wow! That is textbook. I know this is a Niña year, but I remember some of our biggest snows being in Niña years. Weak ones, at least.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Incoming on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 SheshSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 At least it’s not completely obliterated by the cold this run of the GFS, it’s a coastal snow storm but at this stage that’s perfectly ok for central and western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Canadian is trying, but a lot warmer than GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Someone between Indianapolis and Chicago is going to see more snow next week than Boston does this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 49 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Someone between Indianapolis and Chicago is going to see more snow next week than Boston does this weekend That’s historical for that area, for Boston, it’s just another weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 unless I'm mistaken that's some pretty solid continental cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 And just like that, the long range looks like a mess on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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