BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z GEFS was another big, and good shift! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z GEFS was another big, and good shift!YepSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 06z GEFS really escalated things quickly. Some super big dogs within the members 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GEFS LP center map for 6zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6z Euro ens moves west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6z Euro ens moves west againGetting the west shift, won't belong before it expands southSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Getting the west shift, won't belong before it expands south Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Maybe. I suspect this will be a DC to Boston special, but who knows. We need the phasing to occur much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Hopefully it trends south and gives us snow. Right now, it looks like the storm doesn’t get going until near Nj 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The 06z NAM looked like it was on track for a better phase sooner. RGEM looked pretty good as well. The 12z NAM looks like it’s on its way to improve upon the 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12z NAM hr84Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I can't tell if the 84hr synoptics on the NAM are favorable for Carolina snows or not. Can you elaborate a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Looks like our wave is over the 4 corners on Thursday (similar to the 84hr NAM): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 actually a little further sw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Gfs looks like rain for most of central and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Much better spot for the phase. The thumb ridge in the SW collapses a bit more this run allowing more of a dig. The downside is more in the way of rain for central NC but those details come later. Everyone forgets there was a lot of rain first in the Carolina Crusher before the epic comma head. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Gfs looks like rain for most of central and eastern NC Cold chasing moisture. Definitely not what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 And as I said the comma head delivers after the rain. This is what you want. A solid Miller A: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA Agree to an extent, but if this thing goes bombs away as a dynamic system, as progged, these are the ones that rapidly drag down the colder 850 mb air and “manufacture” their own cold west of the track. This is not a slider type storm with cold air chasing moisture if it’s going to town, as it has the potential to do. Very very very few big central NC snows begin as pure snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Monster storm for new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Not huge amounts but respectable even if the low cranks a bit late. Definitely an improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Much better spot for the phase. The thumb ridge in the SW collapses a bit more this run allowing more of a dig. The downside is more in the way of rain for central NC but those details come later. Everyone forgets there was a lot of rain first in the Carolina Crusher before the epic comma head. I recalled it rained all morning throughout most of the afternoon here in the Midlands of SC until around 3pm when all of a sudden it started snowing. It quickly went from a moderate to heavy snow. It looked like a chicken truck had crashed as the flakes were fat and heavy. When it all ended we had about 6" of snow and it took awhile before it melted. We missed an entire week of work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Agree to an extent, but if this thing goes bombs away as a dynamic system, as progged, these are the ones that rapidly drag down the colder 850 mb air and “manufacture” their own cold west of the track. This is not a slider type storm with cold air chasing moisture if it’s going to town, as it has the potential to do. Very very very few big central NC snows begin as pure snow Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years) Having lived in both NC and DC for decades, not really. DC SLP target is probably analogous to that of Greensboro or W-S, inner banks to just off ORF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 We need it to wait a little longer before going neutral to get the phase farther southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 There are some absolute monsters on the GFS ensemble run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Starting to get that look 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: There are some absolute monsters on the GFS ensemble run. Need an earlier phase for us. Possible it can still happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Starting to get that look Please explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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