BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gfs was looking good early on and then it went wide right again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Looking at Vorts…(I’m new) 18Z op isn’t gonna get the job done out to 84You called itSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 ICON did have light snow in northern NC, Southern VA. I'll stick to my belief, it will either be a large system or a minor. No in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gfs is really close to dragging a moderate strength gulf low across the coast in east to west fashion. We don’t need any phasing for that. In fact the phasing wit’s the northern branch sorta squashes those chances. If the 18z gfs had not been quite so diggy with the intital vort I believe it could have rolled it east and given a solid ENE tracking Miller A. You can see the gulf low develop but the northern branch squashes it just enough before it gets rolling our way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Baby steps in right direction continue. Still, looking like a thread the needle though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Good news is that the GEFS is different and looks a lot better than the OP. Toss the 18z OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Think we in range to move the storm to the thread or wait till like Tuesday?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I vote for a thread as the potential storm for Friday/Saturday isn’t quite long range any more, and it is overwhelming the long term thread. I’d be interested in hearing about how things are looking in the day 15-30 range. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FatherNature Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Think we in range to move the storm to the thread or wait till like Tuesday? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Jumped the gun on the storm thread. At the earliest 12z tomorrow with multiple models showing a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, FatherNature said: Jumped the gun on the storm thread. At the earliest 12z tomorrow with multiple models showing a storm. If Tomm nights 0Z’s come in hot I say do it….but this thing looks like a 20% shot right now Jmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Anyone have 18z Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I think it's running now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, PantherJustin said: If Tomm nights 0Z’s come in hot I say do it….but this thing looks like a 20% shot right now Jmo I don't think it's that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 At least something there at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 18z Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk That’s another increase over 12z for ENC/SEVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong... probabilistic is the operative word I'm guessing. Some maps are safer bets than others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong...Every year I see posts from meteorologists irate over these 7 day model snow outputs that people post. Not sure why they waste their breath. There is so much misinformation posted on social media every day, and honestly I am not sure if it makes a difference with snow. People in the south lose their mind over snow whether it is an inch or a foot. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Every year I see posts from meteorologists irate over these 7 day model snow outputs that people post. Not sure why they waste their breath. There is so much misinformation posted on social media every day, and honestly I am not sure if it makes a difference with snow. People in the south lose their mind over snow whether it is an inch or a foot. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk I assume the issue for them is that people post these maps on, say, twitter, without any notification or warning that this is likely not to happen. What this ends up doing is having ignorant people that don't know any better flood their social media with posts about a storm thats likely not to happen and get their hopes up about a storm that is likely not to happen so that when it doesnt happen, they flood the mets socials with irate posts about why the storm didn't happen...when it wasn't likely to in the first place. IMO, theres nothing wrong with sharing models 5,6,7 days out. I think if you want to be safe you share it with the warning that this is very likely not to be the outcome...but even then, the ignorant snow chasers that don't understand what theyre looking at wont get it. Its kind of the issue with social media in general...no matter what information you share, theres going to be an ignorant portion of the population that is going to take it WAY out of context and cause issues for everyone else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I assume the issue for them is that people post these maps on, say, twitter, without any notification or warning that this is likely not to happen. What this ends up doing is having ignorant people that don't know any better flood their social media with posts about a storm thats likely not to happen and get their hopes up about a storm that is likely not to happen so that when it doesnt happen, they flood the mets socials with irate posts about why the storm didn't happen...when it wasn't likely to in the first place. IMO, theres nothing wrong with sharing models 5,6,7 days out. I think if you want to be safe you share it with the warning that this is very likely not to be the outcome...but even then, the ignorant snow chasers that don't understand what theyre looking at wont get it. Its kind of the issue with social media in general...no matter what information you share, theres going to be an ignorant portion of the population that is going to take it WAY out of context and cause issues for everyone else.Yep, Ron White has a nice saying for those folks.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 0z OPSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Quite the trend on the GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Beautiful trends on the GEFS today with the placement of the mean trough. Exactly the ensemble support I was hoping to see start building before I let myself get remotely interested in this chance. Still not overly optimistic this far west, but we'll see. Would hate to be left out on back to back snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Euro? Ofshore low that hits New England hard. Light snow for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Everything is trending west so I’d say we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This is a pretty decent look right now. I don't necessarily trust the Miller b-like transfer the GFS has. We need phasing to happen sooner to a avoid major p-type and temp issues for nearly everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Jesh Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Please don’t cut and paste that garbage on this forum. I’m not a Mod, but I know they don’t want that here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Deleted Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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