Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[StantonParkHoya]

If we’ve got this SER going into February, you can cancel the season.

I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but spring gets started now right after Valentines.

[NorthHillsWx]

How about the 947mb low the 0z GFS spit out over New England the 2-3rd… 

[buckeyefan1]

If it would dig just a touch more.......sigh

[wncsnow]

The "pattern change" looks more like a brief cooldown before back to at or above normal. 

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The "pattern change" looks more like a brief cooldown before back to at or above normal. 

Persistent SE ridge is persistent

[nwohweather]

16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Persistent SE ridge is persistent

Completely and I absolutely love it. I don’t see Charleston dropping below 75° at all this week for a high. Big fan of this torch

[eyewall]

This looks like a tor setup for early next week:

[olafminesaw]

From drought to Flooding if the GFS is to be believed. The euro is much more flat and progressive. Ensembles support the idea of more reasonable 1-2" of rain, which fits better with the current pattern

[buckeyefan1]

20 hours ago, eyewall said:

This looks like a tor setup for early next week:

SPC

...Day5/Saturday - Mid South and the Tennessee Valley to the
   Southern Appalachians...
   Severe weather will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   from the early morning thunderstorms across Arkansas and vicinity.
   There may be a slight lull in storm coverage/intensity during the
   diurnal minimum Saturday morning, as the lead wave continues
   northeastward and the primary trough approaches from the west.
   However, by midday, significant height falls will start to
   overspread the warm sector and widespread storm development is
   anticipated. The location of overnight convection will have a
   significant impact on the zones within the broader risk area where a
   higher severe weather threat will exist. However, all guidance shows
   a broad warm sector with a broad 50 knot low-level jet, which would
   foster an environment favorable for all severe weather types. The
   greatest uncertainties are related to the northward extent of the
   risk and the surface low track. Given the widespread convection
   expected north of the warm front, a convectively reinforced warm
   front could set up farther south than the surface low track may
   suggest. Also, global guidance still varies with the intensity and
   location of the surface-low as it tracks northeast. The track and
   intensity of this surface-low will have some impact on the storm
   evolution and intensity within the warm sector, especially as it
   relates to storm mode and the tornado threat. Maintained 15 percent
   probabilities from the previous Day 6 forecast with an expansion on
   the southern and eastern extent to account for the threat continuing
   late Saturday night. 

   ...Day6/Sunday - Portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas...
   A severe-weather threat will likely persist into the Southeast and
   Carolinas after 12Z on Sunday, but the magnitude of the threat
   varies greatly. Most guidance shows a remnant squall line moving
   through the region. With extensive cloud cover, slightly lower
   moisture quality, and decreasing ascent, a significant severe threat
   would not necessarily be most likely. However, there is still
   considerable uncertainty during the Day 6 timeframe, and several of
   the GEFS members, including the operational GFS, have a deepening
   surface cyclone somewhere east of the Appalachians on Sunday. This
   would lead to a more significant severe-weather threat than ECMWF
   guidance would suggest and will need to be monitored as a
   possibility.

   ..Bentley.. 12/28/2021

[buckeyefan1]

****Trigger Warning****

 

[floridapirate]

Last winter in Central Florida was unusually cold for a long stretch of time with multiple frosts.  i'm loving this winter so far.  Bring on La Nina every year!

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing I’ll say is Sunday/Monday looks to feature some sort of interesting weather. Might have severe weather then a rain/snow mix on back to back days. Would be nice to break out of the boring weather we’ve been stuck in for a day or two…

[buckeyefan1]

[RT1980]

Just looking back at the long range (fantasy land) storms on the gfs.  It loves Mon-going in to Tue this season!    Just an observation!   

[franklin NCwx]

Ensembles don't look great for winter weather in the SE but they're definitely not showing grass growing weather anymore

[ILMRoss]

Im pretty interested to how the 00z suite handles this. This is indeed cold chasing moisture so I don’t think sticking is really on the table but there may be some token flakes as the trough passes depending on how sharp and deep it is.

[NorthHillsWx]

Well, we’re inside of 5 days and Sunday night looks interesting at least for wintry weather. Wouldn’t expect much more than a novelty event at most but pretty crazy if we can get any wintry weather Sunday after shattering record highs in the mid-upper 70’s Saturday 

[griteater]

Sugar Mtn (12/29/21) / December 2021 Temps

 

[Upstate Tiger]

10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Sugar Mtn (12/29/21) / December 2021 Temps

 

Looks like winter pulled a UCLA in December and decided not to show up.  

[buckeyefan1]

It's like the state farm commercial.....you almost had it   

 

[buckeyefan1]

Meanwhile, there is plenty of time for this raging ice storm to become a severe weather event    or

 wintertime fun  

[buckeyefan1]

Still a flizzard alert for some  

[buckeyefan1]

The period around mid month has been consistently showing some winter madness for the past few weeks. Although it's still in fantasy land, all the models have picked it up in some fashion. The details are to be determined, but it's something. Maybe. 

 

 

[griteater]

12z GFS has the Pacific pattern I thought we could see develop in Jan.  Pac jet extends sending the semi-permanent Sea of Okhotsk low (sfc low) into the Aleutians where it tries to anchor for a bit...with good ridging developing along the west coast and into AK and Gulf of AK.  Who knows if it is correct, but let's see if we can build some momentum for such an outcome.

[wncsnow]

You know we're in the suck zone when its this quiet in late December. Most years we would be on page 10 at least yet here we are on page 3. 

[buckeyefan1]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You know we're in the suck zone when its this quiet in late December. Most years we would be on page 10 at least yet here we are on page 3. 

I know right!?   Things are beginning to look better overall, so I haven't given up hope yet. I do believe there might be a few surprise flakes flying around for a few select people this weekend. Hopefully the model madness for mid month won't be pulled out from under us. 

[Avdave]

6 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Still a flizzard alert for some  

That looks about right. I get 20 glakes while Rocky Mount gets a plowable event 

[RT1980]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

You know we're in the suck zone when its this quiet in late December. Most years we would be on page 10 at least yet here we are on page 3. 

Yep, 99% of our memorable snows come in December!   Next thing you know people will be angry if it’s not in the upper 90’s in May!

[wncsnow]

56 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Yep, 99% of our memorable snows come in December!   Next thing you know people will be angry if it’s not in the upper 90’s in May!

Like December 2009, 2010, 2017, 2018. Or 1993 for the mountains and 1989 for the coast. We haven't had a decent February snow in the foothills since 2014 or 15 even longer for March.