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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We are at 5 days and have ensemble support in addition to the op solutions for several model suites. This is officially a threat. Happy tracking this week! 

The GFS/Canadian have it…. European/UKIE more than likely do not (Obviously haven’t seen 12Z euro) it’s one thing to have one set of Mods and a more favorable solution together, and the other less but one set to have a storm and two others just to not even have it imo is another …. Not trying to be that guy, but this one doesn’t have near the support last two have imo 

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54 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business.

 

 

Yea we need that ULL diving down from the arctic to be a little stronger and/or slower to help those waves dive down more in the plains instead of coming down through the Midwest/Ohio Valley. 
 

Canadian is showing the storm now as well. Still a little late to phase but nice to see it showing up. Biggest thing I’ve noticed is Canadian and others have the energy about 12 hours ahead of GFS which has caused them to not phase or dive down through the Ohio valley and phase too late. 
 

In a couple more days the location and timing of those waves in Canada should become clearer. 

6ADA0DAE-48AC-4F18-A440-213AC959496D.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea we need that ULL diving down from the arctic to be a little stronger and/or slower to help those waves dive down more in the plains instead of coming down through the Midwest/Ohio Valley. 
 

Canadian is showing the storm now as well. Still a little late to phase but nice to see it showing up. Biggest thing I’ve noticed is Canadian and others have the energy about 12 hours ahead of GFS which has caused them to not phase or dive down through the Ohio valley and phase too late. 
 

In a couple more days the location and timing of those waves in Canada should become clearer. 

6ADA0DAE-48AC-4F18-A440-213AC959496D.jpeg

It’s so so close. We really need that ridge to not be squarely parked over the Rockies. 

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Am I crazy or are the euro and gfs close to having a weak west to east moving gulf low type set up at 120hrs? If that digging shortwave can dig a little more and amplify/seperate/tilt a tad over Texas… seems like we could get gulf involvement. I know some of the gfs ensemble members showed this 

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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

The GFS/Canadian have it…. European/UKIE more than likely do not (Obviously haven’t seen 12Z euro) it’s one thing to have one set of Mods and a more favorable solution together, and the other less but one set to have a storm and two others just to not even have it imo is another …. Not trying to be that guy, but this one doesn’t have near the support last two have imo 

Euro has been all over the place, though. The last storm had runs where some models had it and some didn't, too.

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Am I crazy or are the euro and gfs close to having a weak west to east moving gulf low type set up at 120hrs? If that digging shortwave can dig a little more and amplify/seperate/tilt a tad over Texas… seems like we could get gulf involvement. I know some of the gfs ensemble members showed this 

Not crazy. That’s the same low that phased and bombed out off the coast on the GFS 18z yesterday and has come and gone.

CE742E47-ABF3-4F24-AF6D-C6D04A754017.jpeg

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What does everyone think about this statement?

Nah. Euro was the consistent model last week and showed the signs of snow first. Elizabeth and I were texting about the Euro about 7 days before that snow. GFS caught on a few days later. Euro held steady when GFS wavered and when high resolution models were out to lunch. Consistency is key.

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