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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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This is bit ridiculous to be analyzing, but the 84hr RGEM is a massive change from the 12z 96hr CMC in Southwest Canada in regards to our potential storm. 84hr rgem actually lines up well with the gfs now.  

As such, I'm going to predict the 00z CMC will be much more favorable for a winter storm when it comes out tonight.

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19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite.

Isn't this kind of what we were saying at this point with the last storm about the ensembles not matching the ops?

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Canadian didn’t get it done either. But the players are on the field. 
 

Pay attention to that ULL in Canada on future runs. It helps drive the other waves south and west in the 18z GFS screenshot. It’s much weaker on the 00z GFS and let’s the other waves coming from Alaska slide further east and down through the Midwest instead of the Great Plains. 
 

The Canadian is even weaker but then also a little faster with the energy coming down from the arctic and ahead of it. Allowing those waves to slide even further east and then ejecting some energy southwest into the plains. The remaining northern energy eventually phases with a third piece of energy coming down from Alaska. By then though it’s so far east and north the low forms off the coast of SC instead of down in the Gulf. 

0F25A2A0-483F-4DA0-B572-F0F6A4D3EE10.jpeg

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I'm about ready to punt the late next week threat for mby. Eastern NC probably still has a small chance though.

I  think we have a chance after that coastal though... seems like all the modeling has some pacific energy dropping through on the heels of that big coastal. They are all handling it differently, but ensemble members are showing there's a path to a winter storm with that feature for us. 

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1643490000-j1qD2PLhd5g.png

The signal continues. We will see if we reel it in this week. The timing seems a bit faster lately.  The first key piece of energy comes out of western Canada early this week around Tuesday or so. That piece will drop into the southwest than move east.  The second piece drops south later in the week through the Great Lakes. It will be interesting to see when they start being sampled in the real world this week. I would argue we need  that Great Lakes piece to get there a little quicker to start the phase earlier and farther west.

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

1643490000-j1qD2PLhd5g.png

The signal continues. We will see if we reel it in this week. The timing seems a bit faster lately.  The first key piece of energy comes out of western Canada early this week around Tuesday or so. That piece will drop into the southwest than move east.  The second piece drops south later in the week through the great lakes. It will be interesting to see when they start being sampled in the real world this week.

Ensembles seem more encouraged this run

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The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business.

vort1.jpg

vort2.jpg

Vort3.jpg

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The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business.
vort1.thumb.jpg.577b326dd0211ba9d93c43ca16119180.jpg
vort2.thumb.jpg.369e85463af7e6be1db84945c00a4a98.jpg
Vort3.thumb.jpg.fbe0211671ed722bd2d0790b5de2d579.jpg
Push the phase back to Alabama/GA line and everyone wins

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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