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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

actually the 18z GFS is already showing some accumulations outside the mountains... good signs. (mountains will almost definitely do really well with this storm if there is some robust precip).

Screen Shot 2022-01-20 at 8.06.06 PM.png

FFC has mentioned the possibility for Tuesday morning for about a day or two now. Here's part of this afternoon's disco:

 

The next chance for precipitation will return by Tuesday morning as

a southern stream shortwave approaches and its associated surface

low moves along the Gulf Coast. At this point, temperatures appear

marginal for any frozen precipitation in north Georgia. The current

forecast will continue to carry some chance for rain or snow across

far north Georgia in far northeast Georgia Tuesday morning, though

confidence is low

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23 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

The time around next weekend to first part of Feb holds the best change for a significant winter storm IMO as the current pattern we are in starts to break down. You can typically count a big storm somewhere as patterns break down and readjust. 

Yep, been thinking the same. I wouldnt exactly call this a bitter artic outbreak but historically our best storms come on the tail end of a cold outbreak. 

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16 hours ago, burrel2 said:

If we wind up getting a heavy slug of moisture Tuesday morning with that gulf low... go ahead and mark me down as thinking us in NE GA and Upstate SC can possibly getting a few inches of wet snow.  Globals have 850 temps wet bulbing to around -2C for that event. There are boundary layer issues and surface temps are showing 36-38 on the global models that give us precip right now. I've seen this show before though and if we do get heavy precip from that low I  expect the HI-res models to come in with heavy wet snow.  I  went back and looked at my notes from the snow we got two years ago, which was a very similar set up.  Notice in my notes that no global models ever showed snow for that storm in the medium range... i'm not saying we will get lucky again. 100 things can go wrong here... i'm just saying there is a chance with the Tuesday storm and to not write it off yet.

February 8, 2020 3.25 inches all snow 31.5-32.2 all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pm
hi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. verified at - 4 850's and -2 925mb. temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow

 

Seeing the GFS pretty consistently show that this week, I did think back to this event. One of my favorite of the past few years for sure.

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