CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks like next Weds..ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Canada's boom 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just going to leave this here...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Individual runsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 can't complain about this look on the 7 day EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12z gfs is set up for glory at day 7. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 No less than 4 chances for winter storms showing up on the GFS over the next 2 weeks starting next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: 12z gfs is set up for glory at day 7. Yeah, that sounds familiar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: No less than 4 chances for winter storms showing up on the GFS over the next 2 weeks starting next Wednesday. Very nice I am looking forward to nice storm before this nice pattern ends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Idk each model runs looks to be moderating next weeks threat to mostly rain outside of the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Imo, the Tuesday morning threat could have legs for the eastern escarpment and of course the mountains. Models are actually in very good agreement on low placement and thermal profiles. We won’t have any cold air damming but it looks like the air mass in place is dry enough to drop 850s to -3c across the upstate and even colder in NC foothills when precip breaks out Tuesday morning. Combine that with Adiabatic cooling via south east flow that the global are probably under estimating and we may get a Decent 32-33 degree wet snow storm if we’re lucky. Something to watch for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Imo, the Tuesday morning threat could have legs for the eastern escarpment and of course the mountains. Models are actually in very good agreement on low placement and thermal profiles. We won’t have any cold air damming but it looks like the air mass in place is dry enough to drop 850s to -3c across the upstate and even colder in NC foothills when precip breaks out Tuesday morning. Combine that with Adiabatic cooling via south east flow that the global are probably under estimating and we may get a Decent 32-33 degree wet snow storm if we’re lucky. Something to watch for sure. Several swings on the 18 GFS for sure over the period. Maybe one will catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Actually on closer inspection they aren’t in agreement at all on the Tuesday threat, lol. Still a chance with that one though, and that’s not even the main threat to focus on… love the potential late next week… just need an evolution similar to what the gfs showed today on day 7. Ensembles have been having that similar 5h look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Did the GFS seriously try to spin off a January Tropical Depression...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Looks like the pattern is gonna start breaking down soon. Glad many cashed in beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 According to long term GFS, heights look to fall again in the west the first week of February so looks like we have another week to 10 days under the current pattern to score another storm in the SE before heights rise. With the unpredictability over the last couple of weeks, I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty what is going to happen over the next two weeks. Good news for winter lovers, is the cold remains across Canada in the long term poised to come south and east with with any height falls in the central and eastern U.S. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Ukmet looks like it's setting up nice at 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 also the 00z CMC and 06z GFS both have a northern stream shortwave dropping down and sparking a coastal in the day 9 timeframe. As depicted, plenty of cold air to work with on that one, just a matte of getting it to pop in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, burrel2 said: also the 00z CMC and 06z GFS both have a northern stream shortwave dropping down and sparking a coastal in the day 9 timeframe. As depicted, plenty of cold air to work with on that one, just a matte of getting it to pop in time. That's the groundhog day system that has been shown for a while now EDIT: The timeframe keeps shifting between the 28th and the 2nd, but it has been consistently showing the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS go boom. Hour 207 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 lmao, 958 mb off the delmarva coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: GFS go boom. Hour 207 Long duration also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS go boom. Hour 207No words needed for that one (24 hour totals for that storm)Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Guarantee you NO mixing issues in the triangle with that setup. Stone cold lead pipe lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Wow, we keep having these threats showing up about 7 days after each other. Been a long time since that has happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Wow, we keep having these threats showing up about 7 days after each other. Been a long time since that has happened. Yeah, last winter. 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: No words needed for that one (24 hour totals for that storm) Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk If this were to verify, anyone complaining about the Wake County cutoff or gradient should be permanently banned. Seriously, I could see us getting a big storm as we transition out of the colder regime. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Let’s learn fun, new ways to go from 30 inch outputs to 0.3 inch realities. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 If we wind up getting a heavy slug of moisture Tuesday morning with that gulf low... go ahead and mark me down as thinking us in NE GA and Upstate SC can possibly getting a few inches of wet snow. Globals have 850 temps wet bulbing to around -2C for that event. There are boundary layer issues and surface temps are showing 36-38 on the global models that give us precip right now. I've seen this show before though and if we do get heavy precip from that low I expect the HI-res models to come in with heavy wet snow. I went back and looked at my notes from the snow we got two years ago, which was a very similar set up. Notice in my notes that no global models ever showed snow for that storm in the medium range... i'm not saying we will get lucky again. 100 things can go wrong here... i'm just saying there is a chance with the Tuesday storm and to not write it off yet. February 8, 2020 3.25 inches all snow 31.5-32.2 all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pm hi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. verified at - 4 850's and -2 925mb. temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Here's the sounding off the 18z GFS for Clemson, SC at 7am Tuesday. 1/10th of liquid has already fallen and another 2/10th's fall from 7-10am and the sounding stays about the same... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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