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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Imo, the Tuesday morning threat could have legs for the eastern escarpment and of course the mountains. Models are actually in very good agreement on low placement and thermal profiles. We won’t have any cold air damming but it looks like the air mass in place is dry enough to drop 850s to -3c across the upstate and even colder in NC foothills when precip breaks out Tuesday morning. Combine that with Adiabatic cooling via south east flow that the global are probably under estimating and we may get a Decent 32-33 degree wet snow storm if we’re lucky. Something to watch for sure. 

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Imo, the Tuesday morning threat could have legs for the eastern escarpment and of course the mountains. Models are actually in very good agreement on low placement and thermal profiles. We won’t have any cold air damming but it looks like the air mass in place is dry enough to drop 850s to -3c across the upstate and even colder in NC foothills when precip breaks out Tuesday morning. Combine that with Adiabatic cooling via south east flow that the global are probably under estimating and we may get a Decent 32-33 degree wet snow storm if we’re lucky. Something to watch for sure. 

Several swings on the 18 GFS for sure over the period. Maybe one will catch. 

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Actually on closer inspection they aren’t in agreement at all on the Tuesday threat, lol. Still a chance with that one though, and that’s not even the main threat to focus on… love the potential late next week… just need an evolution similar to what the gfs showed today on day 7. Ensembles have been having that similar 5h look. 

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According to long term GFS, heights look to fall again in the west the first week of February so looks like we have another week to 10 days under the current pattern to score another storm in the SE before heights rise.  With the unpredictability over the last couple of weeks, I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty what is going to happen over the next two weeks.  Good news for winter lovers, is the cold remains across Canada in the long term poised to come south and east with with any height falls in the central and eastern U.S.    

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25 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

also the 00z CMC and 06z GFS both have a northern stream shortwave dropping down and sparking a coastal in the day 9 timeframe. As depicted, plenty of cold air to work with on that one, just a matte of getting it to pop in time.

That's the groundhog day system that has been shown for a while now :D  

EDIT: The timeframe keeps shifting between the 28th and the 2nd, but it has been consistently showing the goods

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3 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

No words needed for that one (24 hour totals for that storm)a8717bd3a9c82809e74b289c94b294ea.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

If this were to verify, anyone complaining about the Wake County cutoff or gradient should be permanently banned.  :)  Seriously, I could see us getting a big storm as we transition out of the colder regime.

TW

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If we wind up getting a heavy slug of moisture Tuesday morning with that gulf low... go ahead and mark me down as thinking us in NE GA and Upstate SC can possibly getting a few inches of wet snow.  Globals have 850 temps wet bulbing to around -2C for that event. There are boundary layer issues and surface temps are showing 36-38 on the global models that give us precip right now. I've seen this show before though and if we do get heavy precip from that low I  expect the HI-res models to come in with heavy wet snow.  I  went back and looked at my notes from the snow we got two years ago, which was a very similar set up.  Notice in my notes that no global models ever showed snow for that storm in the medium range... i'm not saying we will get lucky again. 100 things can go wrong here... i'm just saying there is a chance with the Tuesday storm and to not write it off yet.

February 8, 2020 3.25 inches all snow 31.5-32.2 all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pm
hi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. verified at - 4 850's and -2 925mb. temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow

 

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