wncsnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 It could be a few weeks before it frosts/freezes again after tomorrow night. Could definitely see some early budding of trees... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I hope the ski resort owners also own a few golf courses. What a stunning pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: I hope the ski resort owners also own a few golf courses. What a stunning pattern! It's soooooo close to being everything we are looking for. Sigh. Maybe I need to ask my witchy friends to come over for a winter fun ceremony and banish that depressing death ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: It's soooooo close to being everything we are looking for. Sigh. Maybe I need to ask my witchy friends to come over for a winter fun ceremony and banish that depressing death ridge Looking at the models for the next 2 weeks, Jan. 2 thru Jan. 6 is about the only period I see a slight chance for something frozen in the SE. During that period, there is cold air in the Midwest, the NAO remains negative, and the PNA relaxes a bit. I know...I am grasping at straws LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Looking at the models for the next 2 weeks, Jan. 2 thru Jan. 6 is about the only period I see a slight chance for something frozen in the SE. During that period, there is cold air in the Midwest, the NAO remains negative, and the PNA relaxes a bit. I know...I am grasping at straws LOL. Aren't we all at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just looking at the MJO,phase 7 in December is typically warm in the east but phase 7 in January turns colder shown here. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html But you're dealing with a strong,dug in, -PNA this time and like i said before the weather is gonna do what the weather is gonna do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 With as much energy we’ve seen this year in both the hurricane season and lately out of the Pacific, you have to think there will eventually be a monster Nor Easter that clips many with snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 Solar wind the last 4 days 402-682 511-694 507-641 436-597 Strongest levels since very early November,should get a few more active days(Dec.27th-30th)coming.Low solar usually leads to a sluggish jet stream,things get bogged down,patterns get stuck.This might be enough to kick things along,we'll see plus phase 7 MJO is usually cold in the east but that -PNA is a beast.The +AAM might weaken but you need something to kickstart a flip. Just my opinion. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 If nothing else, I believe this winter will show us that the PNA is the most important teleconnection for anything even resembling wintertime in the east and especially the southeast. We've scored many a time without a -NAO/AO because of just enough ridging out west. We can't "win" without a +PNA period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Jonathan said: If nothing else, I believe this winter will show us that the PNA is the most important teleconnection for anything even resembling wintertime in the east and especially the southeast. We've scored many a time without a -NAO/AO because of just enough ridging out west. We can't "win" without a +PNA period. I'm sure we have scored with a -PNA before though it is very rare. Gonna do some research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Jonathan said: If nothing else, I believe this winter will show us that the PNA is the most important teleconnection for anything even resembling wintertime in the east and especially the southeast. We've scored many a time without a -NAO/AO because of just enough ridging out west. We can't "win" without a +PNA period. I completely agree. -PNA absolutely cancels out all others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 14 hours ago, wncsnow said: I'm sure we have scored with a -PNA before though it is very rare. Gonna do some research. 2010-11 was -pna with a strong -NAO. Did very well first part of that winter including 12" Christmas day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Winters more often will be a sea of warm with small islands of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Wow said: Winters more often will be a sea of warm with small islands of cold. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Why do you say that? Climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Wow said: Winters more often will be a sea of warm with small islands of cold. Plenty cold out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 47 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Climate change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 This is definitely the year we zero out for sure on snow. I am just not looking forward to freaking mosquitoes being out for New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Looks like a cool down to start the new year (January 3-4) but until the PNA flips I just am not buying anything frozen in the Southeast and it looks like we’ll have to wait some time into January for that to happen. Wash, rinse, repeat with the pattern we’re stuck in. Lows this week will be 20-30 degrees ABOVE average!!! That’s absurd!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, eyewall said: This is definitely the year we zero out for sure on snow. I am just not looking forward to freaking mosquitoes being out for New Years. Unfortunately I’ll have to agree with you until I see some evidence otherwise. We’re at the point where we can’t even drum up fantasy snows and the mountains can’t even get a snow. If it’s not snowing in banner elk it ain’t gonna be snowing in Raleigh. We’re punting well into January at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Merry Tropical Christmas to all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 6 hours ago, JoshM said: Can't believe we're still laughing at climate change in 2021, almost 2022. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Can't believe we're still laughing at climate change in 2021, almost 2022. This is an example of CLT from Brad P, it's the same no matter what city you look at. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 55 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Can't believe we're still laughing at climate change in 2021, almost 2022. I wasn't laughing at it. Climate change or not, this is a shit pattern. It wouldn't produce 50 years ago and it won't produce today. +3.5 degrees means nothing when it's 75 degrees. Just means there's a little extra lighter fluid on the dumpster fire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 There's another thread for this right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 You cannot tell me this hasn't been an extremely warm pattern for December. Asheville shattered the record for Christmas day. People trying to live in a pipe dream this season.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 We'll probably have a SE ridge in February. La Nina you will think is breaking because of January, but it will come back in February, the roll forward -PNA Dec is over/under +100dm -PNA for February, which I would take under, but NAO will likely even out the SE ridge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 I had my legs in the pool today! I cannot complain at all. As fun as snowstorms are, an 80° holiday week is so relaxing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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