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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Gotta love how cold that run is for most of central NC. What a bizarre storm track though. Seems like small changes could yield wildly different results

The MA peeps are screaming at the moment because it just heads out to sea  :lol:   Plenty of changes to come as it continues to adjust. 

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Just now, BooneWX said:

You’d also typically expect more moisture north and west of that low with that track but let’s see upcoming runs. 

I wouldn't take it verbatim just yet.  A blend of the models at this range give a lot folks something to see.

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19 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

 

I also wouldn't sleep on whatever this Thursday/Friday coastal is. I'm actually kind of surprised this snuck past everybody. I think that a 968 low 400 miles off of Hatteras is in *insane* look. Snow on the OBX. I think this is worth keeping an eye to see if something truly bombs here (not many other models have something like this).

This idea was a wash. But i do want to highlight that the extent to which this thing Thursday/Friday bombs off the coast is going to have a lot of ramifications on our cold air push, whether this weekend system stays suppressed or rides up the coast, etc, and a lot of the swings we see will probably hinge on that. I think the wise approach the next couple of days is to focus on big picture items (what the shortwave is doing, how strong it is, how far it digs etc.) instead of focusing too much on the surface representation.

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