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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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21 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Still time to prove that right, be careful. 

I don’t live in Raleigh, I’m closer to the SC line east of Charlotte.  Low expectations here but I also like to play it as it comes instead of canceling a season at the beginning of January. It may or may not snow at all but like I said I’ll take it off of the current data shown instead of giving up off the long range!

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yes exactly my thinking. It's not in lala fantasy land. Still a week out, but I'll take 7 days out over 10+ anyday.

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east:
1642183200-I8inwjKU3lg.png

 

The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well.
1642356000-pltnD88R460.png

I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east:
1642183200-I8inwjKU3lg.png

 

The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well.
1642356000-pltnD88R460.png

I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track.

Seems that the Euro has been going towards the gfs recently.  Nothing but time will tell!

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8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

obvious caveats lucy can still pull the football yada yada yada but next few weeks look fun. i am moving to richmond in early february and i'd love to see one more snowstorm here before i move!

Wow, moving to Richmond.  You should have some more opportunities for more snow moving north. 

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image.thumb.png.ffe90b3d5516021dc062f3253128316f.png

I also wouldn't sleep on whatever this Thursday/Friday coastal is. I'm actually kind of surprised this snuck past everybody. I think that a 968 low 400 miles off of Hatteras is in *insane* look. Snow on the OBX. I think this is worth keeping an eye to see if something truly bombs here (not many other models have something like this).

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Wow, moving to Richmond.  You should have some more opportunities for more snow moving north. 

I love that city and I have a great group of friends there I've been visiting for a while. But I think "more snow but not enough to get sick of it" played a small but not-insignificant portion of the decision. Despite this I'll probably stick around here, I think the MA forum is a little crowded.

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15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I love that city and I have a great group of friends there I've been visiting for a while. But I think "more snow but not enough to get sick of it" played a small but not-insignificant portion of the decision. Despite this I'll probably stick around here, I think the MA forum is a little crowded.

Also Meteorologist Sean Sublette moved back to around that area.  He was always 1 of my favorites when he was in Lynchburg.... I'm sure uve heard of him.

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From BobChill:  For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. 

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3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

This is a remarkable turnaround to be tracking threats just 2 weeks after tracking tee times. 

Speak for yourself lol still making tee times here. Next weekend looks very interesting, especially for the folks in VA. Still, I’d like to see a little more of a snowpack put down in the Midwest to firmly entrench that cold air in the Eastern US

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RAH is showing some interest in the weekend system:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...
 
Expect quiet weather on Wednesday with little synoptic action across
the region. An upper trough over the Ohio River Valley Thursday
morning will dive across the Carolinas Thursday night. While a
surface low will eventually develop, this low appears likely to
develop offshore and should have little impact on central NC.
However, wraparound moisture could result in a passing shower
Thursday night. There is still not enough confidence to include pops
in the forecast at this time. Behind the deepening surface low, a
ridge of high pressure will extend down the East Coast on Friday.
 
By Saturday evening the GFS and ECMWF agree that there should be
precipitation over central North Carolina, but from wildly different
systems. The GFS shows a surface low move southeast from Chicago to
West Virginia before developing a second low off the NC coast, while
the ECMWF has a low move across Alabama and Georgia which then
strengthens near the Outer Banks before continuing east. There is
definitely a chance of precipitation through the weekend and
precipitation type could be an issue, although the temperature
profiles would look much different depending on which model
verifies. The highest chances for precipitation appear to be
Saturday night, although precipitation would likely start during the
day on Saturday and linger into Sunday.
 
Temperatures will be below normal through the extended forecast.
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