Justicebork Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: GFS/JMA vs ICON/UKIE/CMC/EURO... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk One of the single most depressing posts I've ever read here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 South Carolina beat Tennessee and Clemson this year 16 minutes ago, Justicebork said: One of the single most depressing posts I've ever read here. Bigger upsets have happened! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Probably best to take an average of the solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 For what it’s worth, the gfs and GEFS have been consistent with the signal for days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, BooneWX said: For what it’s worth, the gfs and GEFS have been consistent with the signal for days. And doesn’t have the tendency to bury things like the euro.. I’ll hang my hat on the gfs and it’s model suite until something substantial changes. Call me crazy but I’ll roll the dice here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late. That's actually a really good point. Maybe one of the better cases (which would upset most of the crew) would be a charlotte to chesterfield up into the DC area or something. Not sure if even the NC mountains or SW VA could survive that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I guess one of the biggest struggles is not really knowing what something halfway in-between these two solutions would even look like. I suspect mostly rain for most with a thump of snow on the back end, with the low tracking over the Apps and phasing late. I’m chuckling because you’re 100% right - how do you split the difference between a foot of snow and a severe weather outbreak? The models are laughable at this point and the most we should take away is that the ensembles show a favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The Euro took a big step west with the diving energy in the Plains compared to its 0z run. Significant adjustment IMO. 0z: 12z: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Heading into deep winter down here in Gainesville. The upper 70s afternoons have dipped into the 60s and sometimes 50s for foreseeable days ahead. Occasional fronts with rain as Nrn Fl gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Good news after 12z runs, the GFS did better than the EURO last Winter... bad news is, this ain't last winter. Would love to see the GFS continue its onslaught but until the Euro jumps on board, I ain't honking the horn just yet...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NAM sides with the GFS ICON looks to potentially flip campsSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: NAM sides with the GFS ICON looks to potentially flip camps Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Looking at the NAM this far out should be illegal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Looking at the NAM this far out should be illegal. Not in this case Bluey...Also friendly reminder on the two drink maximum for Happy Hour ^^Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Good to see GFS mostly unchanged through 78 on Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This run about to bring out the geek in everyone. HR 111 is looking fantastic. Night and day difference between GFS and EURO. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Cutter .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not gonna be as good of a run this time... a little warmer... with more ice to...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, beanskip said: Cutter .... Ouch. I thought it was looking good then it cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18z GFS just folded to a cutter... not a good sign, especially since it was looking similar earlier in the runSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 That went sideways. Unprecedented opportunity (in recent Christmas memory anyway) and we're going to end up with cold following moisture again. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yea all the way up to about hr 124 looked great but then it started to trend stronger and more west.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Still a solid hit for the mountains, then an ICE Storm in the Piedmont, then Rain east of there.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Piedmont misses out this run. Cutter keeps my area with cold rain/ wintery mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It largely held serve with the big picture but the westward/amped trend needs to stop. Plenty of time for it to windshield wiper back. Still miles better than the Canadian and Euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The GFS started out smokin and ended up ChokinSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm in the foothills near Morganton NC (Burke County). That puts me in the 5 to 6 range. But that's a little too close for comfort we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west. I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: It’s difficult to understand how this storm can be this far north and west with the anomalous blocking in the east and ridging in the west. I will say the 18z GFS is a much more realistic solution than the ECMF IMO. It’s also shoving around a 1036HP so I’m not sure how likely that is? Can anyone see this Miller B as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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