Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

gfs 0z OP putting out some ridiculous stuff...but the fun kind 

If we got 2 storms in a couple days I’d seriously contemplate signing on the dotted line to call winter a wrap after that, even with my latitude comparatively to some in here. Would be absolutely incredible. 

[CaryWx]

Santa storms?  You bet

[JoshM]

And the majority of the board doesn't go above freezing after hour 186 onward on the GFS 

[Buddy1987]

Jan 21-23 1987 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/01/what_were_the_worst_25_storms_in_the_northeast_in_the_past_60_years.html

Bring this on! 

[BornAgain13]

Geez...multiple days in the 20s after the storm taking the gfs verbatim.

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[Buddy1987]

0Z GEFS really liking the central VA to eastern PA/ NW NJ. Still shows a general theme region wide tho of a solid precip producer. 
 

Edit: It did cut back decent bit Western NC/SC but at this point I’m pulling hairs with the GFS suite.. signal and 500 setup are there. 

[NJsnow89]

Anyone got clown maps?

[wncsnow]

GEFS mean cut back a lot. Interesting. 

[wncsnow]

[SnowDawg]

GEFS individuals still showing a very wide range of outcomes from rain, to dry, from light snow, to big snow. I think it's safe to say that the Mid-Atlantic to the NE is probably more favored and the SE maybe moreso with the trailing wave, but it's clear if the cards fall our way we're in the game for both.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

GEFS has backed off, CMC and ECMWF are not on board. Time will tell. We still have time for this to go either way. Safe bet on nothing from northern VA, south.

[Prismshine Productions]

Not surprised to be honest, we in that 5-7 day range of losing support

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[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS has backed off, CMC and ECMWF are not on board. Time will tell. We still have time for this to go either way. Safe bet on nothing from northern VA, south.

CMC ensembles actually improved over 12z

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[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS mean cut back a lot. Interesting. 

Not surprised, went to a lot of ice

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[Prismshine Productions]

And before everyone goes all doomer...

All we did was went back to the mean average from 0z last night no big deal



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[GaWx]

11 hours ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

I don't think I've ever seen the GFS this consistent with a fantasy storm this far out, especially  at the same timeframe. It's definitely caught my attention.

 Whereas the 18Z GFS backed off for 12/26, the 0Z brought it right back as a sleet/snow mix to the coast and inland 25-50 miles. See map below, which counts it all as snow and thus inflates the amounts. Further inland is all snow. This makes the 0Z GFS a highly unusual 5th of the last 9 and 3rd of the last 4 with significant wintry precip all the way to the SE coast on 12/26 fwiw (still not much value other than entertainment that far out). 

 

 OTOH and more importantly since ensemble means have a good bit less inaccuracy than operational runs, the 0Z GEFS mean has the 500 mb trough a good bit west of earlier GEFS runs and is thus warmer/too warm for coastal wintry precip. on 12/26. Since having a winter storm on the coast of this magnitude is rare (only once every 20 years in our area), I normally view modeled winter storms in our area with a lot of doubt since most don't materialize. Let's see whether or not this GEFS run is a harbinger of GFS future runs.

[Jonathan]

YIKES! 0z Euro absolutely craps the bucket with a warm rainstorm 12/22.  

GFS Ensembles were awful as well, cutting VA's snow totals in half and almost removing them completely for NC.

[chris624wx]

Definitely don't look at the 0z Euro lol the low transfers off the NC coast and pounds the NE states.

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS continues the trend of flattening the ridge

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[Prismshine Productions]

Well that is certainly a different solution...

EPS called for a Christmas Day storm

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[GaWx]

16 hours ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

I don't think I've ever seen the GFS this consistent with a fantasy storm this far out, especially  at the same timeframe. It's definitely caught my attention.

 Whereas the 0Z GEFS backed down on a coastal 12/26 threat, the 0Z Euro did the opposite. It had at 240 in the SE Gulf a weak low that appeared ready to make a turn NE across FL and strengthen. This would be due to the 500 mb flow becoming a more moist SW in response to strong upper level energy diving SE from Canada. Cold enough air at the time was still along the coast. Had this run gone just a little bit further, I think it would have shown a coastal SE winter storm. 
 

 More importantly, the 0Z EPS supports the Euro with a good number of members as well as the mean looking threatening on 12/26. In addition, 8 of 20 (40%) of 0Z GEPS members have wintry precip, mainly ZR, to the coast on 12/25.

 Edit: 6Z GFS is MUCH warmer on 12/26 with no winter storm anywhere closeby, following the lead of the 0Z GEFS.

[Prismshine Productions]

6z even later phase for the 23rd

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[BornAgain13]

Hate not seeing the Euro have much to offer but the 6z GFS stick has it, although not as much. Still a solid 2-4" for a lot of the Carolinas and Virginia

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[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS slightly improved on the snow mean over 0z... Let the games begin

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[olafminesaw]

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the storm behind the storm being better for us. That's usually how it works out anyway. 

[SnowDawg]

I could be wrong but this feels like the first Miller A/B hybrid that we've dealt with in a while. With the hybrid we're basically trying to perfectly time a clipper phasing with a suppressed southern stream wave. 06z GFS really shows where the speed of both systems matters for the final outcome. The southern wave gets too far ahead so the phase is too late. Also just as the Euro showed a couple days ago, the clipper portion alone is enough to bring light to moderate snow to the western side of the forum if it digs enough. 

[buckeyefan1]

I still can't believe there are 3 chances a day or so apart 

[msuwx]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Whereas the 0Z GEFS backed down on a coastal 12/26 threat, the 0Z Euro did the opposite. It had at 240 in the SE Gulf a weak low that appeared ready to make a turn NE across FL and strengthen. This would be due to the 500 mb flow becoming a more moist SW in response to strong upper level energy diving SE from Canada. Cold enough air at the time was still along the coast. Had this run gone just a little bit further, I think it would have shown a coastal SE winter storm. 
 

 More importantly, the 0Z EPS supports the Euro with a good number of members as well as the mean looking threatening on 12/26. In addition, 8 of 20 (40%) of 0Z GEPS members have wintry precip, mainly ZR, to the coast on 12/25.

 Edit: 6Z GFS is MUCH warmer on 12/26 with no winter storm anywhere closeby, following the lead of the 0Z GEFS.

6z GFS is definitely still a hit of snow for a lot of the region. 

But yes, it is a later, further east phase/ digging.... not what most would want. 

6z compared to 0z:

[olafminesaw]

I'm definitely slightly conflicted, trying to travel around the holidays. The 6z GFS drops a few inches on us the night before we leave (probably freezes solid under), snows on Christmas in PA, then we get dumped on again when trying to travel back. If that happened we'd probably be staying home for Christmas.

[BooneWX]

Yea the trends didn’t go our way last night but lots of reason to remain optimistic. The pattern screams potential for the SE, and these models are still struggling to get a grip with the players on the field in this new pattern. 
 

storm? Check

cold air? Check 

how much will it dig? TBD