NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The only positive we can take away from the euro and eps is that this is still 8 days away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We rarely cash in on the first storm of the blocking pattern. Something has to set the table. I think this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Gotta love those GFS fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 EPS looks like it isn't going to cut it either... OofSent from my SM-S102DL using TapatalkUmmm. Not sure what ur looking at. The EPS looks good!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12z EPSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 is something happening in here? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Ummm. Not sure what ur looking at. The EPS looks good! Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Not sure either. Looked good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ummm. Not sure what ur looking at. The EPS looks good!Sent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkI had it on the wrong model run (was looking at the 6z 500mb)Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Wow said: is something happening in here? LMAO!! I was wondering when you were going to show up. Hope all is well. I agree with @BornAgain13 that's a marked improvement on the EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Yeah the EPS had a good signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, Wow said: is something happening in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Do you have comparisons to prior run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Awesomesauce81 said: I don't think I've ever seen the GFS this consistent with a fantasy storm this far out, especially at the same timeframe. It's definitely caught my attention. Good point though since we're talking 11 days out (well out in almost unforecastable fantasyland) a lot could and probably will change as you know. But fwiw the 12Z EPS mean (and some other recent ensembles to an extent) has a textbook setup for a rare SE winter storm of some form near 12/26 that includes the coast because it is so cold. The mean 500 mb trough is centered to the west allowing for a moist WSW flow on top of the very cold air forecasted to be already in place. The mean qpf is most concentrated from the FL panhandle through the eastern sections of GA, SC, and GA. So, still just a far out fantasy, but rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Do you have comparisons to prior run? 4 run trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Details, details. Somebody here is gonna get some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 One thing is for sure, I will definitely be staying up later to watch the 0z runs. I'll sacrifice losing a little sleep tracking this lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 NBM holy moly...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherzim Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Whats nbmSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: One thing is for sure, I will definitely be staying up later to watch the 0z runs. I'll sacrifice losing a little sleep tracking this lol Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I'm gonna weenie tag this but I also will be joining you because it's piqued my interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Whats nbmSent from my SM-N986U using TapatalkNational Blend of Models, it is essentially the average Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 PNA ridge and it's effect on the angle of the jet will largely decide how far the wave will dig. Need the jet to be aligned more out of the NNW than it is on the Euro. There's certainly more pieces involved like the speed of the southern piece of energy, and the confluence/blocking over the NE not allowing a weakness for it to slide east, but the PNA ridge certainly feels like the most important ingredient. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: PNA ridge and it's effect on the angle of the jet will largely decide how far the wave will dig. Need the jet to be aligned more out of the NNW than it is on the Euro. There's certainly more pieces involved like the speed of the southern piece of energy, and the confluence/blocking over the NE not allowing a weakness for it to slide east, but the PNA ridge certainly feels like the most important ingredient. The best part to this is it's been trending better and better as we approach the time frame, which makes me super excited. Good point out though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 46 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: 4 run trend Again very nice trends and signs from the ens members. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 From the Afternoon RAH disco: Long Term: The forecast really gets interesting during the late week period(late Wednesday night through Friday) with high forecast uncertainty wrt to just how much amplification of the cold upper trough will occur over the central and eastern US via additional energy/northern stream energy diving south out of SW Canada. If some of the stronger/deeper H5 height patterns verify, a developing coastal storm tracking along the SE Coast, coupled with the antecedent cP airmass in place, could support the potential for some frozen precip across the climatologically favored areas of the NW Piedmont. Evaluation of the latest 00z/15 Grand Ensemble guidance(100 ensemble members consisting of the CMC, EC, and GEFS members) indicates that ~20 percent of the combined members show measurable snow over the northern Piedmont, with a little over half of those snowy members indicating light snow amounts of 1 inch or less. With that said, these probabilities and related p-type forecast and amounts will without a doubt fluctuate over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Out to 84, ridge is slightly less than at 12z hr90Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 102 ridge is slightly higher Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z GFS Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Another legit run incoming! Not as good as 12z, but I believe 12z was the ceiling lol. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ehh not the greatest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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