NorthHillsWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 GEFS looks slightly improved from last night. EURO is out to lunch and still seems to be handling the energy out west poorly and the op remains at odds with the EPS. Need that western ridge a little further east. GEFS looks pretty dang good for snow chances. It’s really that western energy and making sure it rounds the ridge and doesn’t over amplify in the Mississippi valley that could be the wrench thrown in this. GFS is super suppressed but I’ll take that look all day at range. Hopefully by the weekend we have a good idea of how the western energy will evolve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GEFS looks slightly improved from last night. EURO is out to lunch and still seems to be handling the energy out west poorly and the op remains at odds with the EPS. Need that western ridge a little further east. GEFS looks pretty dang good for snow chances. It’s really that western energy and making sure it rounds the ridge and doesn’t over amplify in the Mississippi valley that could be the wrench thrown in this. GFS is super suppressed but I’ll take that look all day at range. Hopefully by the weekend we have a good idea of how the western energy will evolve 'EURO is out to lunch and still seems to be handling the energy out west poorly' Why do we always say this when one model doesn't show what is 'wanted'. Maybe the EURO is handling the energy correctly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This is not a bad look…. Sprawling high over the upper Midwest - which has produced the signature supply of cad many storms before. Clear storm signal to our south……this bears watching and it’s not in fantasy land. Yeah, unfortunately southern stream systems have been getting squashed. Not much from ensembles to suggest optimism for this system right now, but as you say, bears watching. It's right in that optimum window where if the plinko chip jumps to the left, we're in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, Snow dog said: 'EURO is out to lunch and still seems to be handling the energy out west poorly' Why do we always say this when one model doesn't show what is 'wanted'. Maybe the EURO is handling the energy correctly.. It’s a known model bias for the EURO to over amplify systems in the SW at range especially in Niña patterns. It is at odds with its ensembles which usually means you will see a lot of run to run variance and that will s what we’ve seen with the model. If the EPS pushes a western trough down into the 4 corners region the way the op does then I’ll be more concerned but it doesn’t and looks much more similar to the GEFS at range. Maybe the op caught onto something and the ensemble package moves towards the op but having the GEFS and EPS in relative alignment on the pattern evolution is usually a good sign if things to come on the ops as we get closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Overall, the Ops and ENS have taken a step or 2 back from showing what we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 One of the things that has made winter weather look a lot less likely than it initially did is all the ensembles,and even the OP GFS and Canadian, were showing some overunning events coming out of the string of shortwaves running through the STJ next week. Now all the models largely agree on every one of them being weak, strung out, and suppressed. Unfortunately typical in a La Niña. Maybe one of those will trend back towards us in the short range but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just want to point out:0z OPactually *improved* over the 12z run yesterday...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 So here's the deal, their is no sign of this cold going away anytime soon... patience... eventually, the cold and storm will sync. Only a matter of time...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 It's frustrating, because at the surface this looks like it's setting up for something really good. Then it gets suppressed to oblivion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's frustrating, because at the surface this looks like it's setting up for something really good. Then it gets suppressed to oblivion Would love to see the ensembles get on board here at 12z. It’s so so close… snow breaking out over Ark and Oklahoma is a huge weenie alert signal for at least the Carolinas. On the positive side - It feels like we should expect that any shots of winter weather at the front of this pattern change would likely come with little advance. At 7 days, I like this. The players are on the field. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Would love to see the ensembles get on board here at 12z. It’s so so close… snow breaking out over Ark and Oklahoma is a huge weenie alert signal for at least the Carolinas. On the positive side - It feels like we should expect that any shots of winter weather at the front of this pattern change would likely come with little advance. At 7 days, I like this. The players are on the field. It really wouldn't take big changes to get back in the game on that one for sure. This was the 0z Tuesday run for the same system. The STJ shortwave is still relatively weak but the slightly higher heights off the Atlantic were enough to let it amplify a bit. If you look at H5 you can see the difference between then and now. The NS wave has sped up and is dropping down in front of our wave and crashing heights in front of it, essentially crushing it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Op GFS looking more like Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 These differences are apparent when looking at the 700mbar winds as well, which is where you want to see some vertical motion and flow off the gulf if you want precip. The 0z Tuesday run shows just that with strong moisture transport off the gulf. So I'd say for starters, we'd either need the NS wave to speed up and clear out allowing heights to rise off the coast just before, or slow down like was shown on the 0z Tuesday run. Slower feels like our best bet given the blocking and confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Op gfs and the gefs looks good. I really like the general look of things in the upcoming pattern. Just be steady and patient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 It really wouldn't take big changes to get back in the game on that one for sure. This was the 0z Tuesday run for the same system. The STJ shortwave is still relatively weak but the slightly higher heights off the Atlantic were enough to let it amplify a bit. If you look at H5 you can see the difference between then and now. The NS wave has sped up and is dropping down in front of our wave and crashing heights in front of it, essentially crushing it. When. The temp in freaking MIAMI is 36 you know that is some serious coldSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Op gfs and the gefs looks good. I really like the general look of things in the upcoming pattern. Just be steady and patient.Agreed!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Euro making great steps today also! Good moves today from the models so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Man the Euro is bringing in the cold starting this weekend with another big dump Christmas weekend. If we can get just a little bit of blocking over the next 2 weeks we could see a nice winter storm in SE. Speaking of cold, does it ever feel any colder than when it is raining and 39 degrees like today? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Man the Euro is bringing in the cold starting this weekend with another big dump Christmas weekend. If we can get just a little bit of blocking over the next 2 weeks we could see a nice winter storm in SE. Speaking of cold, does it ever feel any colder than when it is raining and 39 degrees like today?32.1 and White Rain sounds worseSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Happy hour GFS is cold cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Big cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Happy hour GFS is cold cold yea would be teens Christmas Morning for NC verbatim 13 at 12z 12/25 in N subs of CLT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Christmas morning 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 49 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Christmas morning Pipe-freezing, Katy Bar the Door cold! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Meh. Give me snow or give me warm and dry. Record breaking cold is only going to make things tougher on those having trouble with the current economic state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Give me ENS 14 with a perfect phaseSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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