GaWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The latest GEFS forecast for AO implies a good chance for a ~-3 AO for 12/16-31. Since 1950 (assuming I didn't miss any), the only lower AOs for 12/16-31 were in 1950, 1976, 2000, 2009, and 2010. So, 2022 is aiming to have the 6th lowest AO for 12/16-31. 1995 was just above -3 and would be 7th lowest if this forecast holds. Since 2010, there have been none that were -2 or lower. What were the SE US temps and wintry precip for those 12/16-31s? I haven't checked that yet. If I get time, I'll look them up. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Euro again showing a not so cold week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That was obviously a disaster of a run with all the cold in the west. Seattle in the single digits is never good for us. Troubling thing is, each Op run is showing this with greater significance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 23 hours ago, Met1985 said: Winter cancel. Thank goodness. I’m gonna be in Nevada and California anyways over Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Nuts. That was quite the swing in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Thank goodness. I’m gonna be in Nevada and California anyways over Christmas. Man the mountains in California have been getting hammered especially around Lake Tahoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That was obviously a disaster of a run with all the cold in the west. Seattle in the single digits is never good for us. Troubling thing is, each Op run is showing this with greater significance. To me, that looks like a frontal boundary headed east. I would expect that cold air (not as cold, but cold) to move east after this image. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: That was obviously a disaster of a run with all the cold in the west. Seattle in the single digits is never good for us. Troubling thing is, each Op run is showing this with greater significance. Ensemble means as you must know are much more credible that far out. The 12Z EPS, whereas it isn't quite as cold as the 0Z EPS, it doesn't have the SW trough/SER and is thus much colder than the operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Guys, I really wouldn’t overly be concerned about the Euro. There are several known biases that come into play concerning the model itself, including over-amplifying, along with a very well known bias of not correctly ejecting energy out of the southwest. By holding it back a couple days it completely transforms the 500 and surface maps. Could it be onto something? Sure.. Is it most likely showing its hand with its tendencies? That’s what I’m banking on. I’m ready for cold and snow so it’s all I can do to counteract what just happened lol. GFS and Canadian were also not far off of one another whatsoever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just a bit of a difference at 240 lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EURO op being at war with its ensembles and GEFS says to me we will continue to see wild swings on the Op runs for a few more days. However, trends haven’t been great today. We’re still in the game though. Let’s ride 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Yes Lord! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 CPC out this afternoon sticking with potential of a Miller A around Christmas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Crickets around here for happy hour?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The whole us freezes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The whole us freezes For 3 days and then we rain. A roughly 3 day window of cold is coming but everything looks too progressive for anything besides a quick cold snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Crickets around here for happy hour?!?!I was asleep taking a nap, wifey got surgery in the morning so sorry for no play by play Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Doesn't look like much has changed. Gotta love the op madness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Ok, got a moment...Happy Hour did deliver, having taken a step back on the right track compared to the last 18 hours. GEFS also improved south of I85 and the run avg was significantly colder for Christmas. Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said: Ok, got a moment... Happy Hour did deliver, having taken a step back on the right track compared to the last 18 hours. GEFS also improved south of I85 and the run avg was significantly colder for Christmas. Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk At the absolute minimum here that cold shot is no freakin joke! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 At the absolute minimum here that cold shot is no freakin joke! That is the way I see it, even with no show, at least no short sleeves and t shirts on Christmas this yearSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: That is the way I see it, even with no show, at least no short sleeves and t shirts on Christmas this year Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Heck with that. Either white snow or green fairways. No in between on Christmas or the weather was just wasted. You cant even have a good bonfire when it is 20° outside. If these trends keep up we might as well break out the vodka for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Heck with that. Either white snow or green fairways. No in between on Christmas or the weather was just wasted. You cant even have a good bonfire when it is 20° outside. If these trends keep up we might as well break out the vodka for Christmas. We live in the SE, with that in mind I will take a cold Christmas snow or no snow. At least it will *feel* like the seasonSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Wow, them is some bright colors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Oh, and the obligatory fantasy storm... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That pre-Christmas storm is close, definitely like the trends with it on the GFS today. Just need it to dig a little more and get going quicker. I'm interested to see how the individual ensemble members look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 10 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Heck with that. Either white snow or green fairways. No in between on Christmas or the weather was just wasted. You cant even have a good bonfire when it is 20° outside. If these trends keep up we might as well break out the vodka for Christmas. 100% this... Break out the Stolichnaya! Снег и водка – это был бы поистине полноценный праздник! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 If the cold drops south before headed east, usually it moderates quite a bit by the time it gets out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 This is not a bad look…. Sprawling high over the upper Midwest - which has produced the signature supply of cad many storms before. Clear storm signal to our south……this bears watching and it’s not in fantasy land. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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