BornAgain13 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Have you seen the 12z euro and what it's showing?I guess I was referring to next week's stormSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS pulled the rug out of course. I wouldn't expect anything less. When the Euro ain't showing the storms, don't go with the ones that are. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk One OP run brother. 18z at that too. Let’s see what 0z suite brings us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Meh. It was probably never going to be our storm, at least if you wanted any snow. The 18z Euro has a stronger HP though, so we shall see if a bit of an ice storm can still develop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 6 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Merry Christmas Merry Christmas indeed 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Merry Christmas indeed 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Merry Christmas indeed Temp map is really wonky for that hour, that being said...We all dreaming of the Unicorn, I am going to be in Altoona, PA til the 21st so hopefully I bring snow luck back here when I come back down Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 54 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Here's something one will see only very rarely, a 360 hour EPS map with BN essentially in all of the lower 48! It is especially hard for all of Florida to be included in these situations, where usually some ridging nearby keeps it at least normal especially in S FL. Note also that this is for Christmas morning: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 12Z GFS fwiw has not just one, not just two, not just three, but FOUR different short waves that produce wintry precip over LA. Details that far out (1-2 weeks) aren't important due to very low credibility of the very jumpy GFS. But this shows the potential threat for wintry precip in parts of the SE US at some point(s) in the second half of December. Looking at ensemble consensus for then, practically the entire US is a cold island sticking out like a wintry thumb, which is rare. If enough of that cold were to reach the SE US, it could easily mean significant wintry precip in parts of the SE and quite possibly more than once, especially as usual in the more favorable northern parts. Down my way, where wintry precip is rare (only about once every 4-5 years longterm average and more often trace or light than not), I'm mainly just wanting a cold pattern. Down this far SE, I don't live or die based on getting wintry precip as I'd be dead almost all of the time lol though I never give up hope for a miracle when it is cold. The indices per today's GEFS forecast for that period are rather favorable for cold overall with a continued strong -AO (-2 to -3), weak to borderline moderate -NAO (-0.25 to -0.50), and a rising PNA from the prior three weeks of -PNA to a neutral to possibly weak +PNA during this period. Also, the MJO is pretty conducive for then per forecasts for allowing cold with it mainly low amped inside the bottom part of the circle although the EPS has it going outside right side in about 10 days, which itself would favor mild in the SE. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The 18z GFS is a dream run for the upper SE and Mid-Atlantic... over a foot of snow through Christmas Eve from 2 systems.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The 18z GFS is a dream run for the upper SE and Mid-Atlantic... over a foot of snow through Christmas Eve from 2 systems. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk And a lot of folks in the Carolinas will be opening presents in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Lol 18z was pure pain east of 85. Way too early but something to track around the holidays gets me excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Some interesting climo for major Atlanta ice and sleet storms based on my own research done several years ago: 1. Every one since Feb of 1979 has occurred when the MJO was within the COD with one exception: the Feb 1979 sleet, which started in phase 3 just outside. But then even it moved inside for most of it. 2. Every one since 1940 had predominantly east winds, not NE winds. Any major winter storm that had mainly NE, N, NW, or west winds (~18 of them) was mainly or all snow as opposed to mainly sleet or ZR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 To give you an idea of how much colder the model consensus for especially the E 1/3 of the US is now vs what it was Friday at 12Z, the natural gas market this evening opened up a whopping 10% over the last price traded of Friday!! That's almost, if not totally, unheard of in the 30 years this market has traded! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 If the 18z GFS happens I might die. Holy smokes what a teaser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 18z GEFS is a dream. Wow what a patternSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Is it showing any worthwhile for the Wilson Nc area? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 There are no words to describe the 18z GFS/GEFS hahaha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: There are no words to describe the 18z GFS/GEFS hahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 The 18z GEFS is much more robust with the extent of the freezing rain Thursday, getting all the way down into central NC vs the 12z GEFS which barely made it to the NC border. Interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 The 18z GEFS is much more robust with the extent of the freezing rain Thursday, getting all the way down into central NC vs the 12z GEFS which barely made it to the NC border. Interesting.Definitely need to keep an eye on that!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: The 18z GEFS is much more robust with the extent of the freezing rain Thursday, getting all the way down into central NC vs the 12z GEFS which barely made it to the NC border. Interesting. Just now, BornAgain13 said: Definitely need to keep an eye on that! Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 18z EURO concurs as well, at least SW VA 81 corridor at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Wow... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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