WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This would be pretty darn good in a very general sense for cold SE prospects IF this were to verify since a very important +PNA would be joining the strong -NAO/-AO combo. This new +PNA was also showing up starting around the same time on yesterday's 12Z EPS (December 12th or so) as hinted at in your post yesterday. The following 0Z went away from it, but this run is the strongest yet. This is a pretty strong signal for 13-14 days out. Although Dec prior to this time looks to average out warmer than normal, this is the kind of setup that would have the opportunity to result in a cold SE December overall, just as was the case in the 3rd year cold ENSO analogs of 1910, 1917, and 2000. Let's hope future ensemble runs continue to show a new +PNA for around 12/12. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 *for entertainment purposes only* 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Per the 0Z 11/30/22 GEFS run, the first half of December is forecasted to have an average NAO of near -1.1. That would by a good margin be the strongest -NAO in the first half of December since 2010. Looking back to 1950, here are the strongest -NAOs for the first half of December: 1. 1963: -1.5 2. 2009: -1.3 3. 2010: -1.2 4-6. 1977, 1989, 1995: -1.1 7. 2002: -1.0 The remainder since 1950 are -0.8 or weaker. So, based on today's GEFS, 2022 is looking to be at about tied for 4th with 1977, 1989, and 1995 for the strongest -NAO for the first half of December since 1950. Only 2010, 2009, and 1963 were stronger than this forecast and there's a slight chance that it could reach 2010's strength. Daily NAO data since 1950: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv Edit: Since 1963 and 2009 were during El Niño, 2022 is aiming to be tied for 2nd for the strongest non-Nino -NAO in the first half of December since 1950 (behind only 2010). 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Op Models look like crap still. SE ridge holding strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Op Models look like crap still. SE ridge holding strong. So, are these models right? Or are they underestimating the cold potential of the forecasted -1.1 NAO for 12/1-15? Which is more likely? I don't know but consider this for RDU's 12/1-15 temperature anomalies for the seven years since 1950 with a -NAO of -1 or stronger: 1963: very cold -7 1977: cold -5 1989: very cold -7 1995: cool -2 2002: very cold -9 2009: cool -2 2010: very cold -12 *Average: cold -6 *None were mild. All were colder than normal with 5 of 7 cold to very cold. RDU temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: So, are these models right? Or are they underestimating the cold potential of the forecasted -1.1 NAO for 12/1-15? Which is more likely? I don't know but consider this for RDU's 12/1-15 temperature anomalies for the seven years since 1950 with a -NAO of -1 or stronger: 1963: very cold -7 1977: cold -5 1989: very cold -7 1995: cool -2 2002: very cold -9 2009: cool -2 2010: very cold -12 *Average: cold -6 *None were mild. All were colder than normal with 5 of 7 cold to very cold. RDU temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Yeah this is a very anomalous setup which the workings for this are already underway. No way the OP models have a firm grasp on crap currently. The ensembles are the way to go currently. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Well DT has done started Woofing... its game on now... or not lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Well DT has done started Woofing... its game on now... or not lol Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I used to keep up with him but, he doesn't deserve any respect. All he does is rail others if they don't see things how he does or believe like he does. Calls other's terrible names etc.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 As other have posted the pattern looks really good around mid-month looking at the latest GFS. Also, NAO heading to really negative territory while the PNA moves toward positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 12z GFS looks amazing but what a weird storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 12z GFS looks amazing but what a weird storm track It's like a southern stream clipper. Really odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's like a southern stream clipper. Really odd. I've not looked but, sounds like a Miller B to Miller A transfer type. That happened several times in '95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Generally the kind of look to hope for at this range. Of course, we have about 5 days of waiting before we can get much better an idea of what will happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Good synopsis of the pattern in week two from the CPC. Basically agreeing with previous comments posted above: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Op Models still look rainy and warm here through mid month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 What a disgusting flip in the models. Went from wall to wall cold and a rare setup to mowing the grass and golfing the rest of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Is anyone surprised after the last 4 winters 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Is anyone surprised after the last 4 winters Never! The only guaranteed cold comes April - Memorial Day edit: sorry everyone. Just a salty winter weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 On 11/30/2022 at 2:21 PM, GaWx said: So, are these models right? Or are they underestimating the cold potential of the forecasted -1.1 NAO for 12/1-15? Which is more likely? I don't know but consider this for RDU's 12/1-15 temperature anomalies for the seven years since 1950 with a -NAO of -1 or stronger: 1963: very cold -7 1977: cold -5 1989: very cold -7 1995: cool -2 2002: very cold -9 2009: cool -2 2010: very cold -12 *Average: cold -6 *None were mild. All were colder than normal with 5 of 7 cold to very cold. RDU temperatures: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Today's 0Z GEFS based forecast for 12/1-15 is for an NAO of ~-1.0, which would be about tied for 7th lowest NAO since 1950. The quoted post above shows an average at RDU of a cold 6 colder than normal for 12/1-15 for the 7 NAOs since 1950 of -1.0 or lower. OTOH, today's GEFS based forecast for 12/1-15 is for a PNA of ~-1.0. This would be for 12/1-15 the 4th lowest PNA since 1950 and the lowest since 1973! Here are the RDU temperature anomalies for the six 12/1-15 periods since 1950 with a PNA of -0.8 or lower: 1956 (PNA -1.1): quite mild +7 1961 (PNA -1.05): normal -1 1972 (PNA -1.2): mild +4 1975 (PNA -0.9): normal 0 2012 (PNA -0.8): quite mild +7 2021 (PNA -0.8): mild +4 *Average: mild +4 *None were cold and 4 of 6 were mild to quite mild. So, there is a forecasting conundrum for the first half of this month with the strong -NAO analogs averaging a cold -6 and the strong -PNA analogs averaging a mild +4. This illustrates the complexity of the pattern and thus the higher level of difficulty of the models sorting this out. This tells me to keep confidence in any one model run (including ensembles) lower than normal and to expect larger than normal changes from run to run. --------------------- *Edit on 12/4/22: Although my list of strongest -NAOs for Dec 1-15 is correct, I inadvertently left off 2010's -1.0 from my list of strong -PNAs. Thus, I need to update the -PNA analysis and will do so with today's GEFS based forecast, which is ~-1.1 and ~tied for the second strongest -PNA since 1950 for the first half of December. The GEFS NAO forecast has risen from ~-1.1 to ~-0.9 though that's still strong enough to be ~8th strongest. Here are the RDU temperature anomalies for the seven 12/1-15 periods since 1950 with a PNA of -0.8 or lower: 1956 (PNA -1.1): quite mild +7 1961 (PNA -1.05): normal -1 1972 (PNA -1.2): mild +4 1975 (PNA -0.9): normal 0 2012 (PNA -0.8): quite mild +7 2010 (PNA -1.0): very cold -12 2021 (PNA -0.8): mild +4 *Average: normal +1 So, adding 2010's extreme cold despite a strong -PNA changes the average considerably since it is a near normal +1 vs a mild +4 without 2010. Including 2010 is extra important because it is by far the closest strong -NAO/-PNA analog to 2022 with 2022 ~-0.9/-1.1 vs 2010's ~-1.2/-1.0. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference. Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th. Today it keeps it negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference. Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th. Today it keeps it negative. Which model(s)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: As mentioned above, the change from yesterday's forecast in the PNA is the difference. Yesterday's PNA forecast has it moving to positive between the 10-15th. Today it keeps it negative. I would imagine a -NAO/-PNA would work out a lot better in January. Hopefully moving the PNA closer to neutral by then anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 53 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Which model(s)? CPC yesterday versus today https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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