PantherJustin Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me Yea, I agree…. I will be your Neighbor till Weds. (Snowshoe WV) I was hoping you and I could pull it back west but not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications. Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing. That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 18z HRRR coming in, again, aggressive. Coastal gets more involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 @Buddy1987 you will really like the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 HRRR drops 6 inches in some NC foothill locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Let's see what the 18z NAM Nest has to say. Will it agree with the HRRR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 HRRR has precip from the coastal back to the triangle. Just a hair too late for anything significant there but it’s a much more potent storm for just about everyone else and would certainly have a higher ceiling. On its island but definitely interesting to see nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 51 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Buddy1987 you will really like the HRRR 50 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: HRRR drops 6 inches in some NC foothill locations. Damn! HRRR escalated things quickly although it’s long rang HRRR so I’m taking it with a grain of salt. 12z Nam was more aggressive as well so maybe I waived the white flag too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Good to see 18z 3k with more precip. Been running awfully dry since the upgrade awhile back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 RGEM is quite wet but questionable thermals. Which is odd because I thought it had a cold bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WRAL futurecasf shows a nice burst of snow Monday morning. They said they are watching that for more impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 00z HRRR delivering the goods up this way. We’ll see what the Nam has to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nam is strictly a NW VA type short duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 22-23, not good news guys if we flex -NAO next Winter it will be -PNA 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 00z GFS came in a lot wetter for SE VA this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 hours ago, chris624wx said: 00z GFS came in a lot wetter for SE VA this run A few of the others did too, will be interesting to see if anyone in our area squeezes out more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Even the Sunday night round has pretty much vanished. This is a wrap. (For central NC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 14 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Doesn't that look mean severe weather in late to mid March since the cold air is close by ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 So the energy around texas and Arkansas l, and the energy popping up in the gulf...I should expect all that to dry up as the day progresses? Wow. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 hours ago, jlh said: A few of the others did too, will be interesting to see if anyone in our area squeezes out more than a dusting. And now it's looking drier haha oh well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I hope…. 29/25 Here at 4800’ SnowShoe WV…. Consistent Flizzard since about 530 … Car Topper so far atleast ….. hoping someone down there in our forum gets a surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 36 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I hope…. 29/25 Here at 4800’ SnowShoe WV…. Consistent Flizzard since about 530 … Car Topper so far atleast ….. hoping someone down there in our forum gets a surprise you all should do pretty good up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 hours ago, CentralNC said: you all should do pretty good up there. Yea my point forecast said 2-4” tonight and “Around 1” tomorrow… no advisory or Anything though idk what the Criteria is for way up here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Feel sorry for the folks that took the long range HRRR seriously. That’s worse that the 84 hour NAM and the 6 day euro. Another abysmal winter for NC foothills, 1 real event. Sigh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Flakes flying here this morning. 31 degrees and dropping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Very nice band starting to take shape just off to my west. Will be thee opportunity if there’s going to be one. Been watching it for about 30 min and it continues to strengthen. Temp has been going down nicely. 37/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I think today we can all press the “cancel winter” button. Long range looks warm, even torchy. That brings us into March. Glad we all got some winter weather this season. One day I’m sure RDU will have a big storm again. Maybe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Hard to Tell but I’d say maybe 2” or so up here on “Country Roads” mountain… 19 and Flurries currently. Not sure what that means for you @Buddy1987 since you’re a bit further south but good luck if I’m not too late I just woke up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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