BooneWX Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Could be another good score for the mountains and down east if the gfs evolution is true. For the western piedmont and foothills, I wouldn’t hold our breath. I’ve seen that surface output for enough years to know it’s cloudy day/sprinkles scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 CMC has been trash this year. Very disappointed in it comparatively to years past. Ukie apparently is bipolar as well. Was in lock step essentially with gfs now a nothing burger. It will trend back. I’m cautiously optimistic for WNC mountains into SVA at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 EURO through 60 looks slightly improvedSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead. .....Spring is at the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 GFS and Euro are worlds apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead. .....Spring is at the doorstep. Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS and Euro are worlds apart. One will fold, and it will be the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Euro looks faster with the precip incoming. Euro at 96 versus GFS at 96. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Euro doesn't look too bad honestly. Way different look than the GFS. But better phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 yay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 And then the Euro at 102. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 At least the Euro has some precip coming through. Just looks warmer and with less precip than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Euro vs GFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: yay? Definitely better than 0Z. Trends are what matter right now versus surface output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The Euro still didn't get there but it actually did improve from 0z. So that's a positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I’m sure Virginia Beach, the snow capital of the south, will cash out again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. It is pretty bad that we're 4 days out and they are that different. Makes you wonder why they are that different, and why one of them is so off. But really all of them are off like this at some point when it comes to winter weather around here. Not sure if its climate change and the models can't account for it, or if the programing they use is just off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I believe one of the main waves is still over the north pacific....so that will limit the amount of accurate data you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I find it rather comical it’s 2022 and we’re basically 4 days out and that’s what we get out of two of the biggest models to try and figure out as to whether you get nothing or 7” for my specific area. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (other than last system where GFS totally sh*t the bed) but the trend has been for the models to start to gravitate toward the gfs. I think the GFS did the best with the storm where we actually got decent snow here. But it was bad with the last threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I believe one of the main waves is still over the north pacific....so that will limit the amount of accurate data you getYeah, that northern piece of energy is still between Russia and AlaskaSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: Yeah, that northern piece of energy is still between Russia and Alaska Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yup, not a whole lot of observation stations up there to feed the super computers with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees 18 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees Ditto. However by Saturday I expect to see my perennials start to creep a bit. I mean 65 2 days straight. Heck its already 58 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 We had a lot longer period of warm weather in December around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Yeah, that northern piece of energy is still between Russia and Alaska Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk And Putin has been keeping this model data extremely hush hush so we here on the Americanwx forums are scrambling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 This was the RGEM h5 btwSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Surface temps marginal to say the least in the Euro. Radically different than last run at H5, but hard to say it's a step towards the GFS. Just a different solution entirely. I don't think the Euro was terribly far from a solid event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 RAH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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