burrel2 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 looks like a fairly potent trough on the 00z ukmet as well. Not GFS cutoff bomb material, but it's sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: looks like a fairly potent trough on the 00z ukmet as well. Not GFS cutoff bomb material, but it's sharp. Can u tell if it's a phase or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Can u tell if it's a phase or not? hard to tell much of anything on those crummy panels. Also, no way i'm believing the qpf output on the gfs if it's right with the 500mb height map. There would be way more liquid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 CMC was really close... a lot better but not quite there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 looks like a fairly potent trough on the 00z ukmet as well. Not GFS cutoff bomb material, but it's sharp.0z hr 144Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 6z GFSSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The GFS looks weird, and is on an island. I wouldn’t excite yourselves too much with it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The GFS looks weird, and is on an island. I wouldn’t excite yourselves too much with it at this point 6z EURO took a baby step towards it out to hr90Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 6z EURO took a baby step towards it out to hr90 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk It did and hopefully it continues to do so in future runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 It did and hopefully it continues to do so in future runs I dunno about you Buckeye, but a Valintines snowball fight sounds like a fun way to spend it with a s/oSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Pssst, hey @buckeyefan1, think the GFS is still on an island?Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Pssst, hey @buckeyefan1, think the GFS is still on an island? Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk It's not been on an island at all. Each of the models have all been hinting at this time frame for a few weeks now. I've mentioned this is a time to watch a few times I also like the first weekish of March as the pattern breaks down, so I'm not so certain that this will be the last opportunity anyone has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 6z GEFS did increase totals over 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 WPC has the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.#PositiveVibesOnlySent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: #PositiveVibesOnly Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Hey I gotta cover for eyewall, lol I do feel a dusting-2" is a plausible outcome for the piedmont. It's our bread and butter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle. I mean it has upside... look at the 00z GFS for the upside max potential... that'd be historic for some folks. No reason to get too excited until the Euro jumps on board though. We saw this movie play out last week. (GFS showing snow and then complete cheap hooker fold). I'm a little more optimistic here though b/c the ukmet looks similar for now. And CMC has the trough axis pretty far west as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 More positive tilt through 96Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: More positive tilt through 96 Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk And a little further west with the southernmost energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 99[Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 117, still positiveSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 GFS folds once again. What a garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Stays positively tilted and holds back the energy. Not a great run (brokenrecord.jpg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Euro wins againSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 GFS has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Definitely not what we wanted to see per 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Not on an island anymore, looks carbon copy to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 I imagine we will see a step back on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Not on an island anymore, looks carbon copy to euro Yup, i'm no longer entertaining the GFS for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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