olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 GSO Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I think the key takeaway is that precip is creeping north and west. It is also starting in such a way as to maximize opportunity for ice as far as temps are concerned. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: GSO Monday morning That dog’ll hunt right there……. For zr that is. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 54 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said: At GSP, the average high is 52 in mid January. By February 1st, it's 54. By March 1st it's 60. A six degree change over February is a strong signal that our time for snow is running out, especially during the daytime. Obviously we can all recount exceptions to this rule, but the further we go, the more perfect you need the setup to cash in. I know this is a Debbie Downer post, but given that the pattern in the East starting in mid February is not ideal, I just don't see any meaningful snows (>1"), especially in Upstate SC along I-85 where I am located. I have seen many winters and at some point the cold exhausts itself and you're left with "manufacturing" the cold to get snow. It does happen, but rarely. This post does not apply to CNC, WNC, and VA where they are closer to the cold source. Climatology is a b!tch. Why are you looking at average high temperatures to determine when the best chances for snow climatologically speaking? I'd think looking at historic snowfalls over the past 100 years. is more prudent. You know we have that data too, right? and Mid-Late February is "climatologically" the best time for our area to score a significant snowfall. Does that mean we will get a snowfall this year in our climo best time??? who knows, probably not b/c it's rare in general to get a significant snowfall any time during the winter for our area. But there's no reason to call winter over at the first of February b/c "climatology". Also how are you declaring the pattern starting in mid-february will not be ideal? 1. that's 10 days away and we don't really know how it will shake out. 2. The signals are mixed right now how the pattern will look in 10 days. It certainly doesn't look like a complete torch with a west coast trough and SER... Here's the latest GEFS mean for February 15th... not horrible. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: GSO Monday morning Caution is advised when looking at any Canadian based output due to cold bias. Posted below is a comparison at 2 meters for tomorrow at 7AM EST between RGEM, NAM, WRF, and GFS and the RGEM is ridiculously colder all over like in Jackson, MS, Birmingham, Wash DC, much of VA and TN, etc. At Jackson, MS, for example, it has 16 vs 30 for the other models. It has Birmingham at 23 vs low 30s on others. Washington, DC, at 12 vs 20s others. Richmond at 14 vs 26 on others. That’s not to say there can’t or won’t be any ZR in NC the next day, but I hope the cold bias is taken into account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 RAP is a weenie run. More sleet and snow than ZR, and pretty amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Not a bad look for mid-February... pattern breakdown cancel? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 CMC also snowing over central NC at 240 hrs... the run was full of opportunities in the long range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Where's this pattern break down again that some ppl keep calling for? 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Good to see some long range activity again. Definitely don’t see a torch incoming either. Those bemoaning the fact we’re in February need to stop, yes it’s trending warmer and yes the Sun angle is beginning to become a problem but the fact there is more warm air available means that we have the potential for stronger storms. The battle between warm and cold is literally what fuels some of our most famous late winter storms so there being more warmth available is not necessarily a bad thing. Complaining about snow not sticking around is foolish, we live in the south my 3” of snow in mid January evaporated in 2 days despite the cold temps and low sun angle. The big March storm in the upstate in 2009 had snow on the ground in shaded spots for 7-8 days after the event in Clemson. Most of the forum has over 50% climo and some are over climo with a month of prime winter left. Usually we joke about fantastic February saving us when we have nothing at this point then get an inch or two at the end of the month or early March. If that happens most will hit climo this year, it’s not like many average 10” of snow here. Great January and hopefully we can pull a big storm in a big storm month with a half decent look to the pattern 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Monday’s event looks entirely timing dependent. If precip arrives before 12z it will likely be icy. If it arrives in afternoon it will be rain. That’s the difference in models right now, all models have us cold Monday morning so if the precip arrives before it warms up there will be some ice problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Good to see some long range activity again. Definitely don’t see a torch incoming either. Those bemoaning the fact we’re in February need to stop, yes it’s trending warmer and yes the Sun angle is beginning to become a problem but the fact there is more warm air available means that we have the potential for stronger storms. The battle between warm and cold is literally what fuels some of our most famous late winter storms so there being more warmth available is not necessarily a bad thing. Complaining about snow not sticking around is foolish, we live in the south my 3” of snow in mid January evaporated in 2 days despite the cold temps and low sun angle. The big March storm in the upstate in 2009 had snow on the ground in shaded spots for 7-8 days after the event in Clemson. Most of the forum has over 50% climo and some are over climo with a month of prime winter left. Usually we joke about fantastic February saving us when we have nothing at this point then get an inch or two at the end of the month or early March. If that happens most will hit climo this year, it’s not like many average 10” of snow here. Great January and hopefully we can pull a big storm in a big storm month with a half decent look to the pattern Completely agree, still plenty of time to pull some more. We've had a few our here on the coast as late as early April, though obviously uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Lol that storm at the end of the GFS is pure weenie Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR, RAP and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va. Post maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va. 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Post maps https://home.pivotalweather.com/ Look for yourself lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Almost zero ENS support...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Surprised no one on this board is talking much about this coming Monday... the Euro, icon, HRRR, RAP and RGEM are showing Wintry Precip in the piedmont and Southern Va. Yea that’s actually becoming very interesting for Certain parts of State I just looked ….. hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Yea that’s actually becoming very interesting for Certain parts of State I just looked ….. hmmm Which part of the state? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Please Lord let all of us get snow on Valentines so we can all have a special moment with our significant others... AmenSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, weatherlover said: Which part of the state? Imo this a CAD area type thing…. If anything at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 4% for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I’m looking forward to my 0.01” of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: Please Lord let all of us get snow on Valentines so we can all have a special moment with our significant others... Amen Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I look at it the other way around, a big VD snow means I aint gotta take her out and she can cook me a big ole sketti dinner. I will build the fire though. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 22 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I look at it the other way around, a big VD snow means I aint gotta take her out and she can cook me a big ole sketti dinner. I will build the fire though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning... However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain... temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives. RGEM still shows a brief period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 11 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning... However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain... temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives. RGEM still shows a brief period. My bet is there is an inconsequential 10 minute period of sleet at the onset as the precip overcomes the dry air then a transition to the type of miserable rain that makes us want spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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