BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Most guidance shows a flat and suppressed system. Even the GFS is trending that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 06z GFS has completely caved to other guidance. Flatter, warmer and weaker. Looks very similar to Euro and Ukie now 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Maybe I’m more of an optimist, but for ab event coming Saturday night/Sunday morning, there is still a good amount of time to watch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 12:20 PM, PackGrad05 said: Maybe I’m more of an optimist, but for ab event coming Saturday night/Sunday morning, there is still a good amount of time to watch. Expand I agree, although with the caveat that delayed storm development has been a consistent issue this winter. Could turn out more of a coastal threat. The good news about the 6z GFS is the high is in a great position. The only reason it warms so much is the LP is weak, there's hardly any precip and it's mid-day as the low is pulling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 11:18 AM, olafminesaw said: Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though Expand These beach sliders are getting old …. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I guess the GFS isn't the King after all.... the Euro has been showing a suppressed look the whole time.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:07 PM, BornAgain13 said: I guess the GFS isn't the King after all.... the Euro has been showing a suppressed look the whole time.... Expand EURO definitely winning the battle on this storm. Hasn’t really budged. GFS has thrown about every possible solution out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The 6z Euro is flat as a pancake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:07 PM, BornAgain13 said: I guess the GFS isn't the King after all.... the Euro has been showing a suppressed look the whole time.... Expand On 2/2/2022 at 1:15 PM, NorthHillsWx said: EURO definitely winning the battle on this storm. Hasn’t really budged. GFS has thrown about every possible solution out there Expand It may very well end up that way, but nothing has happened yet. Did you know that Cincinnati won the Super Bowl in two weeks? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 11:18 AM, olafminesaw said: Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though Expand Don't forget how the storm we had just two weeks ago looked only 48 hours out. Completely changed with 24 hours to go after it was showing it way east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:41 PM, Brick Tamland said: Don't forget how the storm we had just two weeks ago looked only 48 hours out. Completely changed with 24 hours to go after it was showing it way east. Expand Yea…. But the point is with every storm this 4-5 day period comes and ALL of them except Jan 15th event go to the flat progressive look ….we say this every time “ohh the NW trend” the NW trend hasn’t existed for 3 weeks now and won’t exist here either…. Not trying to be a pessimist just saying I’ve been fooled 2x now on this same thing, not happening again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:43 PM, PantherJustin said: Yea…. But the point is with every storm this 4-5 day period comes and ALL of them except Jan 15th event go to the flat progressive look ….we say this every time “ohh the NW trend” the NW trend hasn’t existed for 3 weeks now and won’t exist here either…. Not trying to be a pessimist just saying I’ve been fooled 2x now on this same thing, not happening again Expand Well, since you know what's going to happen no sense in wasting your time on here. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:43 PM, PantherJustin said: Yea…. But the point is with every storm this 4-5 day period comes and ALL of them except Jan 15th event go to the flat progressive look ….we say this every time “ohh the NW trend” the NW trend hasn’t existed for 3 weeks now and won’t exist here either…. Not trying to be a pessimist just saying I’ve been fooled 2x now on this same thing, not happening again Expand I'm waiting on the 12z suite before I throw in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I wouldn't discount anything until at least Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:06 PM, Brick Tamland said: I wouldn't discount anything until at least Friday. Expand I'm curious to know why you pick Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:10 PM, snowmaker13 said: I'm curious to know why you pick Friday. Expand Because we have seen things change drastically before just 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:13 PM, Brick Tamland said: Because we have seen things change drastically before just 24 hours out. Expand In what recent case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:15 PM, snowmaker13 said: In what recent case? Expand Just two weeks ago when we had a decent snow here and 48 hours before it was showing the precip well east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:18 PM, Brick Tamland said: Just two weeks ago when we had a decent snow here and 48 hours before it was showing the precip well east. Expand That was contingent on the STJ and Polar Jet phasing, not happening in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The trends don't look good. I don't think all the wishcasting is going to make this any sort of significant event for us. Ensemble support is quite low. Some may get some flurries and some end up with an inch but doesn't look like we can cash out on it since it is moving so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:45 PM, Brick Tamland said: Well, since you know what's going to happen no sense in wasting your time on here. Expand I’m glutton for punishment, and I’d love to eat crow on this 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It does seem like this winter that we usually have 1 or 2 models show a good hit between 5-7 days out. And then it goes poof... I guess it's to progressive of a pattern and the systems just stay to far south and have no chance to kreep northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 4:07 PM, olafminesaw said: GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north. Expand Yea, looked halfway decent …. Man would love to see EURO jump on though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 4:07 PM, olafminesaw said: GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north. Expand It sure is insistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 4:10 PM, buckeyefan1 said: It sure is insistent Expand Weird feeling having to go SOUTH to snowchase haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS is on its own right now unfortunately. Unless things shift today or tomorrow, the Euro will have had the right idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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