Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like we have trended better the last 24 hours to having a winter storm here. As usual, the questions remain exactly what kind of frozen precip we will get and how much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro looking weaker so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12Z Euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro is a swing and a miss, gives a little snow for far eastern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Euro is a swing and a miss, gives a little snow for far eastern sections Weaker southern energy. That’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GFS: 12z EURO: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If they could meet in the middle that'd be great. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Key to remember that last nights run was an outlier from the EPS. This run just aligns more closely to what the Euro suite has been saying the whole time, supporting mostly a flat/suppressed system. We'll see over the coming days if more members start to move towards the amped GFS or vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The pattern is very close on both models, it is simply a difference of where the low tries to crank up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Guess we'll see the Euro stepping towards the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM and GFS at hour 84 look virtually lock step at H5. Euro meanwhile is smoking a cigarette somewhere. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: The pattern is very close on both models, it is simply a difference of where the low tries to crank up. As burrel alluded to though does a blend of gfs and euro produce more snow or do the synoptics (too amped= warm w/ice but less amped not enough precip?) on this particular set-up just not going to work that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 All I know is 5 straight weeks of winter storm tracking is ridiculous. I thought Mother Nature was giving us a break?!?! All this for 3.4” of snow and a couple flizzards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: All I know is 5 straight weeks of winter storm tracking is ridiculous. I thought Mother Nature was giving us a break?!?! All this for 3.4” of snow and a couple flizzards I am completely happy with it ! Rare to have a pattern like this and I love it!. Not a fan of 67 degrees and rain.... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Certainly don't want anything that will cause a bunch of issues, ie. ice. The good thing is we have several days where the temperature does not get below freezing and even reaches the 60s. That will keep road temps up quite a bit for a while at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'll certainly take another coastal low or slider in in Hampton Roads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Suppressed is good at this point. Rather it be that way than too far NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. Ouch, that is a terrible look for western areas and its only 5 days out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Suppressed is good at this point. Rather it be that way than too far NW. Good for some maybe, but those of us on the far western side of the forum have either been completely missed to the southeast or barely fringed by the last two systems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just some observations since I took notes on all the model runs for the previous two major winter storms this year. With the big january 16th storm. the GFS was the most "wet" in my back yard for the 84-120 hour timeframe. It typically showed 1 to 1.6 inches of liquid with the event. I verified with 1.2 inches of liquid. The Ukmet was by far the worst in this timeframe as it had nothing to .05 inch totals for several runs. The Euro was also consistently too dry showing .4-.6 inch totals in this timeframe. With the big Triangle snow storm late month... The gfs consistently showed my back yard getting 0 to .05 inches of liquid; never more than that. Meanwhile the ukmet and Euro had me getting .25 to .65 of liquid for most of their runs in this time frame. I verified with just a trace of snow; let's call it .01 of liquid. So for both of those winter storms, the gfs was far and away the best model at predicting total liquid in my back yard in the 84-120hr timeframe... (this is very much fwiw and probably just doesn't mean anything) lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. GFS mean is a little misleading there as lots of members(including the operational) have precip falling before 1am Sunday. That's not capture in the old run b/c the storm has been sped up a good 6 hours today. In fact, verbatim the storm is pretty much over in Western NC/SC at 1am Sunday on the operational. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. For what it’s worth, can anyone recall snow on the beach 3 weekends in a row? It’d be wild if we trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 35 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. Agreed. The Ensembles have not been bullish in general anyways compared to the OPS, and the Ensembles continue to trend further east and towards a way more suppressed version compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1488602828205699073?s=20&t=6bqf0M91_6eKmVvG0fl8oQ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That storm on the GFS looked a bit uh...cracked out to me. ULL driving across the apps then cranking a bit off the coast with the secondary low. On the SFC you end up with 3 lows all around each other. That Tuesday storm looks more appealing to me. But this has been a crazy winter for ya'll so anything is on the table I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, chris624wx said: I'll certainly take another coastal low or slider in in Hampton Roads! Just hope the eventual low center doesn't hug the beach or we won't have the temperature profile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GSP says the GFS model showing cold and snow is an outlier. Wasn't it the GFS that has been most dependable this winter? GSP says even though we'll have to watch the Saturday Sunday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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