buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track) Push that low just off the coast about 75 miles and the upstate folks would be very happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well that was interesting... big step towards the Euro with regard to thermal profile on the GFS... still the most amped solution but it was very, very close to an all snow sounding for the whole storm in the upstate with over an inch of liquid. Storm trended way faster on the GFS so not as much time for CAD to build in, but also less time for WAA and scouring of the mid-level cold air so we get more snow for many. Overall a great run though b/c it trended towards the very cold and favorable Euro profiles... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I have a tiny amount of ice/snow from the Jan 16th event left on my back porch. Ya know the saying. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That run was better for sure. It weakened the Great Lakes low a lot more and after the 1st high retreats a second high is able to build in a little quicker. There is another little impulse for Tuesday as that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on. As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops. Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks. Think you score decently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ice storm for the US-1 corridor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on. As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops. Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks. Think you score decently here. The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on. As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops. Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks. Think you score decently here. I mean sure if you take the GFS verbatim then I guess so. If you take the euro verbatim then South and East of the triangle gets all snow and more than Raleigh.... temps aren't an issue at all on the Euro. Point being, we don't know what's happening yet, anything is still on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here's the sounding for Raleigh Sunday at 1pm as precip is pivoting just to your south on the 00z Euro. Does that look like too warm/ice to rain scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, rmcwahoo said: Richmond folks aren’t. Right there with you. 4.3 inches of snow to date at the airport. Brutal My brother lives in Urbana and they’ve had 2 5”+ events and a couple smaller events this year! This last one they had borderline blizzard conditions. Crazy the difference 45 minutes to your east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z cmc is a completely whiff nothing burger. the shortwave is sheared out and weak... no precip for anyone really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Here's the sounding for Raleigh Sunday at 1pm as precip is pivoting just to your south on the 00z Euro. Does that look like too warm/ice to rain scenario? Yeah that is warm. wet bulb essentially right at freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 wow... a whooping 13 of 20 GEFS members show a significant winter storm for Charlotte, NC on COD weather model page. That is the best ensemble run to date for this storm. 5 of the 13 hits are mostly snow! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah that is warm. wet bulb essentially right at freezing. Ok man, 34/21 equals a wetbulb of 32? Eyewall.... (Surface wetbulb temp of 29 degrees with snow moving in...)"That's basically just barely freezing.... NEXT!!!!!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 UK is coming around 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Ok man, 34/21 equals a wetbulb of 32? Sorry yeah I miscalculated. WB is 28F or so which is a good ice accrual temp if you can maintain that level and not warm due to the latent heat of freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: UK is coming around That’s a good sign. Much colder run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Sorry yeah I miscalculated. WB is 28F or so which is a good ice accrual temp if you can maintain that level and not warm due to the latent heat of freezing. You're going to Eeyore your way in to a big snowstorm and I can already see it coming. lol 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: You're going to Eeyore your way in to a big snowstorm and I can already see it coming. lol Hahah well I would be happy if I did, but it is hard to have a lot of confidence when the parent high is retreating and it is more of a hybrid to in-situ CAD situation. Of course that exact scenario still needs to be ironed out over this week in the model runs. What is interesting too is the next wave on Tuesday trying to show up as the next high builds in over Ontario/Quebec. That sounding by itself would actually indicate more of a snow scenario but I am not so sure the mid levels will be quite that cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Here's the sounding for Raleigh Sunday at 1pm as precip is pivoting just to your south on the 00z Euro. Does that look like too warm/ice to rain scenario? Thanks Burrel. Looks like a pretty good snow sign at 850 (at that specific time) unless I have something wrong. Ground truth would be what I call dripping snow though unless 2m temps do indeed get driven down below 0c while 850s stay below 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: That’s a good sign. Much colder run. Does that include sleet. Always forget about what UK and CMC reflect in their frozen precip maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: UK is coming around Is that true snow, or just frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: You're going to Eeyore your way in to a big snowstorm and I can already see it coming. lol burrel, that was just funny. eyeore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: burrel, that was just funny. eyeore? eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey sums up eyewalls general demeanor every winter, lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, burrel2 said: eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey Yes I know I was just renaming eyewall eyeore. Sorry it was confusing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC DataDude Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So, I'm showing .90" and 1.29" as possible ice accumulations IMBY. What is the highest total freezing rain event y'all have heard of (a true freezing rain event)? I know there are diminishing returns when it comes to ice accruement. What are the indicators/situations that cause for maximum accumulation? I hope I'm making some sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, NC DataDude said: So, I'm showing .90" and 1.29" as possible ice accumulations IMBY. What is the highest total freezing rain event y'all have heard of (a true freezing rain event)? I know there are diminishing returns when it comes to ice accruement. What are the indicators/situations that cause for maximum accumulation? I hope I'm making some sense... Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, burrel2 said: eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey sums up eyewalls general demeanor every winter, lol I miss widremann 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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