WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 12z icon has the winter storm at hr 168. So for those counting the current euro, gfs, icon all have the day 7 winter storm. Only the cmc is suppressed. And CMC is trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The first wave goes north on the 12z GFS and then the CAD kicks in but the 2nd impulse dries out and goes a bit north after that. Fantasy range hasn't come in yet. It does not have a winter storm for next weekend in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: 12z icon has the winter storm at hr 168. So for those counting the current euro, gfs, icon all have the day 7 winter storm. Only the cmc is suppressed. Yeah it sure does. Big ice for 85ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7/20 ensemble members have a winter storm at hr180 on Cod weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The GEFS Mean has ice: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Antecedent temperatures will be really warm. Ground and road will warm up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Antecedent temperatures will be really warm. Ground and road will warm up quick. …..that’s not how that works 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: …..that’s not how that works Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Explain? Models are showing a total of like 36hrs(or less) of above 55-60(and cloudy) on Thursday/Friday before the front comes through and we're cold again... We've been cold for three straight weeks prior to that. I don't think our ground temperatures are going to be scorching. Secondly, who cares if they are warm... it really has little effect on anything other than snow and ice accumulation on pavement and potentially how long any ground accumulations hang around. Of the things to worry about with a winter storm/set up... ground temperatures are last on the list,(shouldn't even be on the list at all really). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'll put it this way... if the models are showing you getting 6 inches of snow with surface temps in the upper 20's... are you going to say, "ah, forget it! the ground temps are warm from the previous warm weather! That snow will be melted off the roads and sunny spots within 2 days!" Maybe you do? I don't worry myself with something like that. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Thanks. Didn’t Realize the brief duration of warmup until I just checked the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Thanks. Didn’t Realize the brief duration of warmup until I just checked the forecast. Yeah, it’s a lot like last week, to be honest. Maybe a little warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Latest from WxSouth. The period I'm particularly watching is about February 10th on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high. The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts. It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South. I'll hit the pattern deeper in the blog later today with more model comparison and pattern recognition. Enjoy the brief break later this week on moderating temps 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1487594055244541952/photo/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 of 20 gfs ensemble members shown on cod weather website show a significant winter storm for upstate South Carolina from hr 168-180. That’s an improvement from 7 of 20 on the 12z run. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 40 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 11 of 20 gfs ensemble members shown on cod weather website show a significant winter storm for upstate South Carolina from hr 168-180. That’s an improvement from 7 of 20 on the 12z run. What do they have for NC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: What do they have for NC? You know the answer here. Nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: You know the answer here. Nada. Better than SC I would imagine unless it is a slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: 11 of 20 gfs ensemble members shown on cod weather website show a significant winter storm for upstate South Carolina from hr 168-180. That’s an improvement from 7 of 20 on the 12z run. Yep, signal did increase. I think this one has legs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, BullCityWx said: Yep, signal did increase. I think this one has legs. Would also make sense coming off a slight warmup going back into a “Pattern” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Better than SC I would imagine unless it is a slider2/30 down my way, .2 and .5... That tells you all you need to know...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: 2/30 down my way, .2 and .5... That tells you all you need to know... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yeah this is definitely more of a CAD favored area pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yeah this is definitely more of a CAD favored area pattern Feb 2022 Big Frostys revenge 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 mind you the 12z ICON ended up with a major winter storm with ice along 85 and heavy snow north of 40 from the foothills to Durham. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z ICON with another run of a Major Winter Storm next Sunday for the Carolinas and Virginia. Snow on the northern fringe changing to ICE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Anybody who has the precip type maps or totals for the icon can show that better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Have to see if 0z gfs still has the system. Maybe colder like the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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