WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: For RDU, the mean for 1981 - 2010 was 6.75 " so when we lost the 1980's our mean went down a good bit. Our median plummeted though. It was 4.25". Thanks so much. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Here is a ranked graph of RDU snowfall from 1991-2020. Note the Carolina crusher sticks out like a beautiful sore thumb. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Here is a ranked graph of RDU snowfall from 1991-2020. Note the Carolina crusher sticks out like a beautiful sore thumb. Dang , the 00s were the glory days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Dang , the 00s were the glory days Conversely, the 1990s were a dark time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Plenty of rip offs during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Here is a ranked graph of RDU snowfall from 1991-2020. Note the Carolina crusher sticks out like a beautiful sore thumb. I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, olafminesaw said: I know RDU Climo sucks, but crazy that 3"+ storms only occur about every 2-3 years. Question: how did you compile the data for multi day storms? I've been meaning to do a similar analysis for Greensboro, but only find day snowfall data out there. I just grabbed the monthly data from here https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=RAH You can also get the GSO data from there as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Big CAD event on GFS day 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Big CAD event on GFS day 8 NAO positive unfortunately and HP not favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said: NAO positive unfortunately and HP not favorable. 1043 to our NE and a 1035 meso over VA looked pretty favorable to me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said: NAO positive unfortunately and HP not favorable. NAO has been positive this whole month pretty much. There are other drivers in the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Was looking at the soundings looked like another Sleet storm in the triad (Which i am fine with just no ZR lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Looked like 2 storms to me. Each of the next 2 weekends. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, eyewall said: Neither the Euro or GFS shows anything promising in the foreseeable future. It appears the SE ridge is going to strengthen and kill us. The clock is ticking so hopefully that trends weaker as we go on. Are we looking at different models? Long range literally looks as or more promising than it has all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 46 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Big CAD event on GFS day 8 Wouldn’t that technically be the same storm that’s been showing up? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 My god the 18z gfs ensemble members are absolutely loaded with hits around day 8/9. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Here we go again… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: My god the 18z gfs ensemble members are absolutely loaded with hits around day 8/9. Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, Met1985 said: NAO has been positive this whole month pretty much. There are other drivers in the pattern. Perhaps I was looking at it from an RDU perspective for that particular event. And, things will evolve plus if the Ensembles are good, that’s a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, burrel2 said: My god the 18z gfs ensemble members are absolutely loaded with hits around day 8/9. Map?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I’m out of storage bandwidth. Looks like 9 out of 20 members on cod weather have a significant winter storm for CAD area’s day 8-9. Lots of ice… some have good snow on the northern fringe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Looked like 2 storms to me. Each of the next 2 weekends. TW Wouldn’t 2022 without a weekend storm Tarheel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. With the upgraded GFS having a signal, I put a lot of stock in that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. Ik we’re just looking at signals but that’s a much more realistic signal imo… than some Blitzing snowstorm. It’s consistently shown a classic CAD signal in that time period for awhile now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I always say with the weather “What goes up, must come down” and I figured the extremely above average December would be followed by a below average January. But this is insane, almost a 2013-14 type pattern just lighting up the Eastern US at the moment. New England gets buried this weekend, and the Great Lakes gets buried next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The Euro on board with the storm idea. Model consensus at the moment is mid-levels will be a struggle, but as others have said, CAD may rear it's ugly head 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z icon has the winter storm at hr 168. So for those counting the current euro, gfs, icon all have the day 7 winter storm. Only the cmc is suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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