Snow haven Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 We can’t even get models to agree a day before a storm. Definitely not trusting anything this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 10:50 AM, JoshM said: GFS showing a weenie run around day 9Unless you live in the SC midlands...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Looks like a 3-4 day warmup then the ridge builds back in the NW with a +PNA. This was supposed to be a pattern change in the wrong direction just a few days ago but looks to resume with our winter weather threats quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The CMC/EURO/GFS ensemble means all have a stout west coast ridge with below normal heights in the east through the extended range. It really looks like February is going to be a great month for winter storm threats. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 12:48 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Looks like a 3-4 day warmup then the ridge builds back in the NW with a +PNA. This was supposed to be a pattern change in the wrong direction just a few days ago but looks to resume with our winter weather threats quickly Expand This winter is making me a fan of La Niña 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 12:03 PM, Snow haven said: We can’t even get models to agree a day before a storm. Definitely not trusting anything this far out! GFS has been the first to pick up hits, it is not to be taken lightly this winter...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 1:15 PM, Sandstorm94 said: GFS has been the first to pick up hits, it is not to be taken lightly this winter... Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Expand Definitely been a good sniffer at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'll take that foot and a half the GFS gives me next weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z GFS still has the monster storm for next weekend. 3 runs in a row its showed some sort of wintry precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wonder if we can get this inside 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Last 3 runs of GFS for next weekend.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think that includes this weekend's snow, too. Here is the current one for next weekend's potential storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The big ones are sniffed out early? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 4:45 PM, Brick Tamland said: I think that includes this weekend's snow, too. Here is the current one for next weekend's potential storm. Expand That actually looks like a believable setup …. The whole orientation of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gotta love how models are throwing the deep freeze across the south but that's also gonna put energy into the meat grinder if that happens. Need to catch the front edge or the tail end or it's gonna be another wishing on the perfect phase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Crazy that we could have a fourth weekend in a row with a winter storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Holy sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Canadian has the system, too, but it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS showed 3 storms between next weekend and the following weekend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Sounds like Jim Cantore is on it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 5:21 PM, tarheelwx said: GFS showed 3 storms between next weekend and the following weekend. TWYeah and gives me 3 ice storms out that deal...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol, the 10:1 weenie map has 40" over my house for the full run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 6:56 PM, burgertime said: Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers. Expand Not buying the cold air dump pushing that far south coast to coast... hopefully the euro moderates some on the cold air push and we can get a wave along the stalled boundary. GFS seems like a nice compromise between CMC/Euro, that's my story and i'm sticking to it until the GFS loses the mega storm anyways. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If you just look at the major indices and 5h height anomalies across all the models for days 8-12... wowza. Does not get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 6:56 PM, burgertime said: Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers. Expand The 12z is completely different from the 0z run. The GFS has been consistent for several runs showing the threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think our old nemesis the southeast ridge can help us out in this situation by fighting against suppression, not letting the Arctic boundary drop too far south of us, and enhancing the thermal gradient some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 7:45 PM, SnowDawg said: I think our old nemesis the southeast ridge can help us out in this situation by fighting against suppression, not letting the Arctic boundary drop too far south of us, and enhancing the thermal gradient some. Expand Yea,I mentioned a couple days ago that it seems like the long range favors CAD/ICE and we're really seeing that on the GFS now with 3 separate CAD induced snow/ice threats in the long range. All the models have the SER flexing at least a little bit along with the great blocking and ridging out west, lends you to think we're in for some ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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