PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Just when I was at peace with giving up on this possibility….. Exactly…. Ensembles look more encouraging this AM… that’s one thing the last two have had this one is struggling with imo, strong support from its members in the 60-80% range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Need a UKIE update Not much of a storm at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I like where the GFS and CMC are at right now... moving west a bit.... this could turn out great folks... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 One thing we know is this likely not going to be a Murphy to Manteo event. There will be winners and losers if there any land impacts in NC at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Not much of a storm at all Which means EURO more than likely will not have it. They’re normally hand in hand if I’m not mistaken 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Looking at 500mb vort….the Canadian was really, really close to a biggie. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We are at 5 days and have ensemble support in addition to the op solutions for several model suites. This is officially a threat. Happy tracking this week! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We are at 5 days and have ensemble support in addition to the op solutions for several model suites. This is officially a threat. Happy tracking this week! The GFS/Canadian have it…. European/UKIE more than likely do not (Obviously haven’t seen 12Z euro) it’s one thing to have one set of Mods and a more favorable solution together, and the other less but one set to have a storm and two others just to not even have it imo is another …. Not trying to be that guy, but this one doesn’t have near the support last two have imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I firmly believe we need to start putting more weight in the GFS... It has been on a roll ever since hurricane seasonSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 54 minutes ago, eyewall said: The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business. Yea we need that ULL diving down from the arctic to be a little stronger and/or slower to help those waves dive down more in the plains instead of coming down through the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Canadian is showing the storm now as well. Still a little late to phase but nice to see it showing up. Biggest thing I’ve noticed is Canadian and others have the energy about 12 hours ahead of GFS which has caused them to not phase or dive down through the Ohio valley and phase too late. In a couple more days the location and timing of those waves in Canada should become clearer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Yea we need that ULL diving down from the arctic to be a little stronger and/or slower to help those waves dive down more in the plains instead of coming down through the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Canadian is showing the storm now as well. Still a little late to phase but nice to see it showing up. Biggest thing I’ve noticed is Canadian and others have the energy about 12 hours ahead of GFS which has caused them to not phase or dive down through the Ohio valley and phase too late. In a couple more days the location and timing of those waves in Canada should become clearer. It’s so so close. We really need that ridge to not be squarely parked over the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro caved towards the GFS, light snow for Coastal NCSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Am I crazy or are the euro and gfs close to having a weak west to east moving gulf low type set up at 120hrs? If that digging shortwave can dig a little more and amplify/seperate/tilt a tad over Texas… seems like we could get gulf involvement. I know some of the gfs ensemble members showed this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro still misses but... it did move west from 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Euro caved towards the GFS, light snow for Coastal NC Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Looked pretty similar to Canadian thru 81 to me… then just kind of Whiffed and jetted for Bermuda … maybe ENS will show some encouragement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Baby steps. GFS showed a monster storm just a day ago. Then we see it go too far east, and already start coming back west a little bit every run with the models. Maybe it won't work out this time, but we have seen this happen before with the models when NC ends up getting a good storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, PantherJustin said: The GFS/Canadian have it…. European/UKIE more than likely do not (Obviously haven’t seen 12Z euro) it’s one thing to have one set of Mods and a more favorable solution together, and the other less but one set to have a storm and two others just to not even have it imo is another …. Not trying to be that guy, but this one doesn’t have near the support last two have imo Euro has been all over the place, though. The last storm had runs where some models had it and some didn't, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Spring is coming 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS 0z and 12z... We got a storm to trackSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: EPS 0z and 12z... We got a storm to track Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk I’d like to see that tick up like that all the way to 12Z Tomm then I’m in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Am I crazy or are the euro and gfs close to having a weak west to east moving gulf low type set up at 120hrs? If that digging shortwave can dig a little more and amplify/seperate/tilt a tad over Texas… seems like we could get gulf involvement. I know some of the gfs ensemble members showed this Not crazy. That’s the same low that phased and bombed out off the coast on the GFS 18z yesterday and has come and gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 What does everyone think about this statement? Nah. Euro was the consistent model last week and showed the signs of snow first. Elizabeth and I were texting about the Euro about 7 days before that snow. GFS caught on a few days later. Euro held steady when GFS wavered and when high resolution models were out to lunch. Consistency is key. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 ICON looks close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Looking at Vorts…(I’m new) 18Z op isn’t gonna get the job done out to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 ICON looks close.Good thing I made the thread...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Looking at Vorts…(I’m new) 18Z op isn’t gonna get the job done out to 84Out to 96, it digs a little more SW compared to 12zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: Out to 96, it digs a little more SW compared to 12z Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Yea…. I had only gotten to 84 and I can’t lie I’m driving looking on my phone on tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, PantherJustin said: Yea…. I had only gotten to 84 and I can’t lie I’m driving looking on my phone on tidbits Dude... focus on what you're doing. The weather can wait. This coming frome someone sometimes tempted to do the same 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Wow... 1051mb High over Wyoming at 114...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Jeshhhh...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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