Avdave Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 hours ago, SteveRDU said: Nice, Sussex was often a jackpot zone in some of those storms. And it sounds like a bunch of us cashed in in 2016. Yep for sure. It would be rain in Dover and up in sussex co it would be winter wonderland. I miss it up there, was a great place to live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 18z GFS soundings indicated blizzard as a hazard type for RDU which I have never, ever seen. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Everything is downhill after that run by the GFS. Their is no way it can out do that lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This is bit ridiculous to be analyzing, but the 84hr RGEM is a massive change from the 12z 96hr CMC in Southwest Canada in regards to our potential storm. 84hr rgem actually lines up well with the gfs now. As such, I'm going to predict the 00z CMC will be much more favorable for a winter storm when it comes out tonight. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 like the gfs... rgem is showing that piece of vorticity over the seattle area that winds up playing a key part in the GFS outcome... also the vorticity dropping down in the canada is way further west; another positive. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 0z GFS still has a storm but looks like it is a near miss... stays off the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Flatter and quicker. There’s a lot of time. It was close. 0z Canadian should be interesting to see if it gets closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite. Isn't this kind of what we were saying at this point with the last storm about the ensembles not matching the ops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS still has a storm but looks like it is a near miss... stays off the coast Good. We did this song and dance with the last storm, except it waited until 48 hours out to go east before correcting back NW again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Canadian didn’t get it done either. But the players are on the field. Pay attention to that ULL in Canada on future runs. It helps drive the other waves south and west in the 18z GFS screenshot. It’s much weaker on the 00z GFS and let’s the other waves coming from Alaska slide further east and down through the Midwest instead of the Great Plains. The Canadian is even weaker but then also a little faster with the energy coming down from the arctic and ahead of it. Allowing those waves to slide even further east and then ejecting some energy southwest into the plains. The remaining northern energy eventually phases with a third piece of energy coming down from Alaska. By then though it’s so far east and north the low forms off the coast of SC instead of down in the Gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We know the song and danceSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 NC mets are sweating in December 2000 with this one. Anyway, obviously the last 2 GFS runs didn't have a hit for the region but we will see how this settles out over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 NC mets are sweating in December 2000 with this one. Anyway, obviously the last 2 GFS runs didn't have a hit for the region but we will see how this settles out over the next few days.6z ticked SE of 0z, what ticks down, must tick back inSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I could be totally wrong on this, but this system either looks very light or very major. I don't see an in between kind of event with this. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I'm about ready to punt the late next week threat for mby. Eastern NC probably still has a small chance though. I think we have a chance after that coastal though... seems like all the modeling has some pacific energy dropping through on the heels of that big coastal. They are all handling it differently, but ensemble members are showing there's a path to a winter storm with that feature for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12z tried but was too warm unless right on the OBXSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 12z tried but was too warm unless right on the OBX Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk No, it snows back to the Triangle. Shows accumulations along Hwy 17. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Not a bad place to be at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12Z GEFS looks great compared to 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The signal continues. We will see if we reel it in this week. The timing seems a bit faster lately. The first key piece of energy comes out of western Canada early this week around Tuesday or so. That piece will drop into the southwest than move east. The second piece drops south later in the week through the Great Lakes. It will be interesting to see when they start being sampled in the real world this week. I would argue we need that Great Lakes piece to get there a little quicker to start the phase earlier and farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, eyewall said: The signal continues. We will see if we reel it in this week. The timing seems a bit faster lately. The first key piece of energy comes out of western Canada early this week around Tuesday or so. That piece will drop into the southwest than move east. The second piece drops south later in the week through the great lakes. It will be interesting to see when they start being sampled in the real world this week. Ensembles seem more encouraged this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Decent signal, way better than 6zSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 CMC coming in nice!! We got a storm to track!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: CMC coming in nice!! We got a storm to track!! Just when I was at peace with giving up on this possibility….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The first image shows the GFS modeling of the fist vortmax. The second image shows the first wave moving east through the Gulf region as the next piece of energy comes in quickly through the lakes. The final image shows the phasing occurring. Shift this a bit west and we are in business.Push the phase back to Alabama/GA line and everyone winsSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: Push the phase back to Alabama/GA line and everyone wins Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk No, very likely ENC loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Need a UKIE update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now