BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 What a big snowstorm!!! Please be right!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:04 PM, mclean02 said: What would stop such a strong low from becoming an app runner ? Expand Nothing. With no blocking it comes down to absolutely perfect timing to keep a storm that amped from cutting to Denver. That's why its unlikely to go down that way in reality. Still pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 That GFS run was a widespread 2-3' storm... depending upon location... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 10:52 PM, snowinnc said: I love being in the bulls eye, but not six days out. That NW trend will not be kind to us. Expand Modeling isn't putting us in a bullseye. That particular run is. You have to think about all the model runs existing along a probability distribution. Right now, that distribution pretty much includes all possible outcomes, but favors a big storm more than usual. Lack of deep arctic air is the biggest factor preventing the distribution from skewing more towards a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:04 PM, mclean02 said: And wouldn't that cause -Negative ao since it would just hangout over Greenland after passing up the eastern part of the us ? Expand No. -NAO means HIGH geopotential heights around Greenland. A storm hanging out over Greenland would mean low heights there and thus a +NAO. That being said, big storms do sometimes hang out in the area around latitude 50 N, longitude 50 W and become what is called a "50/50 low"/ Those can be just as helpful with blocking as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:08 PM, BornAgain13 said: What a big snowstorm!!! Please be right!! Expand Unfortunately there is no where to go except down from here lol 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Taken the GFS literally, this storm period starts late Friday night. So we are 5 1/2 - 6 days out. Not fantasy land at all... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 That’d be the biggest storm in NC history lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:17 PM, StantonParkHoya said: That’d be the biggest storm in NC history lol Expand Probably beats the ‘93 superstorm. Drives a nasty squall line through Florida like that one did too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I’ll sell my wife for this to verify. 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:17 PM, StantonParkHoya said: That’d be the biggest storm in NC history lol Expand March 1-3, 1927 would like to have a word with you. This is from Eric Webb's ridiculously interesting historical archive of NC snow events. http://www.webberweather.com/about.html 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Probably worth noting the gulf low is still there on Tuesday and Wednesday. It kinda flattens the wave as it heads east from a pretty stout system in SE Texas. It starts as a cutoff low in the SW, pushes east, deepens, then dampens out moving over the gulf coast. If it stays a bit stronger it could possibly trend a bit further north. Worth watching at least before the main event this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Curious why Brad Panovich gets after people for sharing the gfs showing all that snow, and he has the arrow on 7-10 days out... its only 5-6 days out! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:23 PM, wake4est said: I’ll sell my wife for this to verify. Expand Fringed. Less than two feet. I'm out. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:29 PM, olafminesaw said: Fringed. Less than two feet. I'm out. Expand Upstate folks rooting for a 75-100 mile westward shift lol…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 There’s no telling how long it would take to get out of my neighborhood after a 32 inch snowstorm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:35 PM, NorthHillsWx said: There’s no telling how long it would take to get out of my neighborhood after a 32 inch snowstorm Expand Raleigh would face some serious implications Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:35 PM, NorthHillsWx said: There’s no telling how long it would take to get out of my neighborhood after a 32 inch snowstorm Expand When I lived in NJ we had a couple 30 inchers, and even there it took a solid 2-3 days to get things up and running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 not much if any ensemble support for that run which is likely to happen this far out. biggest thing is most ensembkles have a storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 This would be an epic way to end winter. I would take this and never bitch again. One more ride and use my 4WD again to keep it going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:42 PM, SteveRDU said: When I lived in NJ we had a couple 30 inchers, and even there it took a solid 2-3 days to get things up and running. Expand What part of Jersey. Thats where Im from. I remember a few 30" storms, the bliz of 96, Feb 78, just a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:43 PM, Avdave said: What part of Jersey. Thats where Im from. I remember a few 30" storms, the bliz of 96, Feb 78, just a couple Expand Fort Lee area very close to NYC. ‘96 was epic! ‘78 was before my time. Were you around for 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:42 PM, SteveRDU said: When I lived in NJ we had a couple 30 inchers, and even there it took a solid 2-3 days to get things up and running. Expand Yeah. I did 32 inches in 2016 in NoVa. We had snow around for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:46 PM, SteveRDU said: Fort Lee area very close to NYC. ‘96 was epic! ‘78 was before my time. Were you around for 2016? Expand Know it well, Born in Boonton and grew up in Sussex county. I left there in 1999 and bounced around the northeast, 2016 Jan I was in Northern VA and we had 34" there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 This one is pretty straightforward. It is simply a matter of timing the phase. Some modeling has been phasing too late to really bring any appreciable precipitation. A couple of runs have phases at the perfect time to bring a significant snowstorm. All about the 500mb vorts. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveRDU Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:47 PM, Avdave said: Know it well, Born in Boonton and grew up in Sussex county. I left there in 1999 and bounced around the northeast, 2016 Jan I was in Northern VA and we had 34" there Expand Nice, Sussex was often a jackpot zone in some of those storms. And it sounds like a bunch of us cashed in in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:46 PM, StantonParkHoya said: Yeah. I did 32 inches in 2016 in NoVa. We had snow around for a month. Expand Where in NoVa? 21 in Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:54 PM, msuwx said: This one is pretty straightforward. It is simply a matter of timing the phase. Some modeling has been phasing too late to really bring any appreciable precipitation. A couple of runs have phases at the perfect time to bring a significant snowstorm. All about the 500mb vorts. Expand Am I looking at this wrong? This is not a week out, this is 5-6 days right? Not quite understanding folks saying this is over 7 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 11:59 PM, BornAgain13 said: Am I looking at this wrong? This is not a week out, this is 5-6 days right? Not quite understanding folks saying this is over 7 days away... Expand Yep. Day 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 While impossible amounts…. Still scary that GFs has had this end of world scenario consistently and now we are technically day 5.5-6 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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