Lookout Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 46 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Euro looks like it's going for glory at 144hr, imo. Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure I probably have about as much chance for that to happen as winning the PowerBall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure I probably have about as much chance for that to happen as winning the PowerBall. sharing is caring and winning is giving.... let's reel it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Lookout said: Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure I probably have about as much chance for that to happen as winning the PowerBall. CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+. I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs. (CMC keying on a different wave, but does the same thing with it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+. I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs. Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? No i'm saying the threat may have some legs... as in there may be a winter storm impacting the southeast in some capacity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle. It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign. We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, burrel2 said: and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle. It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign. We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on. Hopefully the models stay consistent like the last system. Agreed, there is for sure a storm signal. Exactly if and when is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: This actually looks pretty good. My biggest worry is the trough dropping down too late and too far to our east. All the models have been pretty consistent with the mega drop down and bombogenisis, it's just a lot of the early runs were doing it too late and too far east for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Until I see at least a bit of agreement with the ensembles I am not getting the least bit excited about this. There is not *one* Euro ensemble member with amounts over 3", here the vast majority are no snow or less than an inch. Over a foot, it is to laugh. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 18z GFS still got the lowSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Too suppressed. Oh wait a minute! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend. Any pics per the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend. Perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The Low is still there on the 0z GFS for next weekend... mainly keeps the snow near the coast and then goes and gives a blizzard to the coast of New England... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Fun and games ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The 500 mb ensembles are trending towards a winter storm. Let’s see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday. Knew it would show that when we got in range. Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday. Knew it would show that when we got in range. Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas. 2nd run in a row now that has snow with this. Will be interesting to see if the Globals follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I’m watching “day after tomorrow”…. I think they used yesterdays GFS model in the making of that movie…. Better stock up now the end is near dear friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Well I have been granted a full release from the sanitarium. Anything we get after this is a bonus. 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Well I have been granted a full release from the sanitarium. Anything we get after this is a bonus.I got to see about the dog hearing the ground crunch underneath my feet, I agree, rest is pure bonus Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: Well I have been granted a full release from the sanitarium. Anything we get after this is a bonus. For now at least! I’ll check back in if we get the rug pulled from us next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Gulf low hr 144Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12z GFS is another big hit for the mountains and piedmont into VA for next Friday/Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 My goodness!! 12z GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: My goodness!! 12z GFS!! Ohhhh yea it’s gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Still snowing in far eastern NC after thus frame.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It is early in game but nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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