buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogwoods Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The Wake gradient is strong. Would be funny… if I didn’t live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, dogwoods said: The Wake gradient is strong. Would be funny… if I didn’t live here. Won’t snow at all this year in Raleigh from what we’ve been told! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 EPS Control run is nuts. And this is just the weekend system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Won’t snow at all this year in Raleigh from what we’ve been told! Still time to prove that right, be careful. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Euro has a bombing low where as GFS has a FROPA but none the less it is something to watch. Not quite fantasy range and could be our next chance. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Still time to prove that right, be careful. I don’t live in Raleigh, I’m closer to the SC line east of Charlotte. Low expectations here but I also like to play it as it comes instead of canceling a season at the beginning of January. It may or may not snow at all but like I said I’ll take it off of the current data shown instead of giving up off the long range! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, eyewall said: Euro has a bombing low where as GFS has a FROPA but none the less it is something to watch. Not quite fantasy range and could be our next chance. Yes exactly my thinking. It's not in lala fantasy land. Still a week out, but I'll take 7 days out over 10+ anyday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 obvious caveats lucy can still pull the football yada yada yada but next few weeks look fun. i am moving to richmond in early february and i'd love to see one more snowstorm here before i move! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Yes exactly my thinking. It's not in lala fantasy land. Still a week out, but I'll take 7 days out over 10+ anyday. Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east: The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well. I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah the question is will the GFS cave to the Euro or will the Euro go toward a glorified FROPA. The GFS does bomb the low much farther east: The Euro digs a little more with the vortmax and bombs he low over northeastern NC and just off shore. The timing lags quite a bit with the Euro as well. I think overall the pattern looks plausible and something could emerge from it. Of course it goes down to the mile in these parts and there is always opportunity to be shafted. The point right now is we have something to potentially track. Seems that the Euro has been going towards the gfs recently. Nothing but time will tell! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 God is great! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: obvious caveats lucy can still pull the football yada yada yada but next few weeks look fun. i am moving to richmond in early february and i'd love to see one more snowstorm here before i move! Exciting! You’ll be down 95 from me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: obvious caveats lucy can still pull the football yada yada yada but next few weeks look fun. i am moving to richmond in early february and i'd love to see one more snowstorm here before i move! Wow, moving to Richmond. You should have some more opportunities for more snow moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 I also wouldn't sleep on whatever this Thursday/Friday coastal is. I'm actually kind of surprised this snuck past everybody. I think that a 968 low 400 miles off of Hatteras is in *insane* look. Snow on the OBX. I think this is worth keeping an eye to see if something truly bombs here (not many other models have something like this). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Wow, moving to Richmond. You should have some more opportunities for more snow moving north. I love that city and I have a great group of friends there I've been visiting for a while. But I think "more snow but not enough to get sick of it" played a small but not-insignificant portion of the decision. Despite this I'll probably stick around here, I think the MA forum is a little crowded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: I love that city and I have a great group of friends there I've been visiting for a while. But I think "more snow but not enough to get sick of it" played a small but not-insignificant portion of the decision. Despite this I'll probably stick around here, I think the MA forum is a little crowded. Also Meteorologist Sean Sublette moved back to around that area. He was always 1 of my favorites when he was in Lynchburg.... I'm sure uve heard of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 From BobChill: For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 This is a remarkable turnaround to be tracking threats just 2 weeks after tracking tee times. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient! I'm in the southern tip! Fun to have stuff to track, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 hours ago, BooneWX said: This is a remarkable turnaround to be tracking threats just 2 weeks after tracking tee times. Speak for yourself lol still making tee times here. Next weekend looks very interesting, especially for the folks in VA. Still, I’d like to see a little more of a snowpack put down in the Midwest to firmly entrench that cold air in the Eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient! I'm in the southern tip! Fun to have stuff to track, though. Angier? I grew up close in Coats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, RT1980 said: Angier? I grew up close in Coats. Willow Spring about 5 miles north of Angier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Willow Spring about 5 miles north of Angier. Yes Sir, I can feel your pain. As a kid I remember watching college basketball with the threat of snow only to wake up the next morning to rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 12:37 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said: Historically correct Also, hysterically incorrect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, jburns said: Also, hysterically incorrect. Somebody said snow. I’m here. Miss me? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 RAH is showing some interest in the weekend system: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... Expect quiet weather on Wednesday with little synoptic action across the region. An upper trough over the Ohio River Valley Thursday morning will dive across the Carolinas Thursday night. While a surface low will eventually develop, this low appears likely to develop offshore and should have little impact on central NC. However, wraparound moisture could result in a passing shower Thursday night. There is still not enough confidence to include pops in the forecast at this time. Behind the deepening surface low, a ridge of high pressure will extend down the East Coast on Friday. By Saturday evening the GFS and ECMWF agree that there should be precipitation over central North Carolina, but from wildly different systems. The GFS shows a surface low move southeast from Chicago to West Virginia before developing a second low off the NC coast, while the ECMWF has a low move across Alabama and Georgia which then strengthens near the Outer Banks before continuing east. There is definitely a chance of precipitation through the weekend and precipitation type could be an issue, although the temperature profiles would look much different depending on which model verifies. The highest chances for precipitation appear to be Saturday night, although precipitation would likely start during the day on Saturday and linger into Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal through the extended forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Nice! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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