buckeyefan1 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 *raises glass* Here's to an amazing New Year filled with winter mayhem, long range systems that verify and weather weenie friends to experience it with 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Can't be worse than December 2021 right? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Hopefully things turn in January. Modeling for the system tomorrow explains why we can’t have nice things: strong coastal storm development with a nice northwest trend over the last 24 hours and cold dry air preceding the event during good climo… but Great Lakes low kills HP cold source and we’re stuck with rain It's soooooo close, yet soooooooooo far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The torch that was the 06z GFS run was an all-timer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: The torch that was the 06z GFS run was an all-timer Indeed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 You know you're in for a long winter when Seattle has days and days of cold in snow in it's future 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Wondering how long into January we’re gonna have to punt now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Each time I check the models I think, they can't get any worse?! Then they prove me wrong again and again. 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Sorry guys, this the last 5 Winters before the strongest -PNA on record this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Sorry guys, this the last 5 Winters before the strongest -PNA on record this year. Ewwwwwwwwwwwww 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Hopefully next winter will work out. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Hopefully next winter will work out. Yep because there is nothing on the horizon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Ewwwwwwwwwwwww It's coming next year too. probability is high for Jan-Feb 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Southern California has a better chance of snow than we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Everyone so down off of a model run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Everyone so down off of a model run? It's been weeks of model runs really. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, Met1985 said: It's been weeks of model runs really. They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed. I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 50 minutes ago, RT1980 said: They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed. I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter. About 2/3rds at best. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, RT1980 said: They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed. I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? Well the issue is feedback on the MJO, the PNA is at record negatives this year so that means that virtually for us the SER is in control until the PNA settles down. The NAO and AO will be not help unless the SER gives in which currently doesn't look that way. We may have a slight window but we are shattering recod highs and record low highs left and right. This December has been way above normal for the SE. I mean we are breaking record by like 5 or 6 degrees. That is extremely impressive and very telling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter. About 2/3rds at best. It’s always been that way as far as I can remember. Usually late January into February for our better chances. Everything has been so weird the past few years, who know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Well the issue is feedback on the MJO, the PNA is at record negatives this year so that means that virtually for us the SER is in control until the PNA settles down. The NAO and AO will be not help unless the SER gives in which currently doesn't look that way. We may have a slight window but we are shattering recod highs and record low highs left and right. This December has been way above normal for the SE. I mean we are breaking record by like 5 or 6 degrees. That is extremely impressive and very telling. Yeah, this current winter is seeming to shape up like last wit BA Nov and AA Dec. The SER has been strong for what seems like a decade. I’m not saying it’s gonna flip and we’ll get record snows, I’m just saying it’s still too early to write it off as some have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Just now, RT1980 said: Yeah, this current winter is seeming to shape up like last wit BA Nov and AA Dec. The SER has been strong for what seems like a decade. I’m not saying it’s gonna flip and we’ll get record snows, I’m just saying it’s still too early to write it off as some have. Im not writing off winter either but there are a lot of negatives and not a lot of positives currently but that doesn't mean we cannot score but the PAC NW is going to have to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Good grief has everyone collectively memory-holed December 2015 which to this day is the craziest month-long torch I've ever seen? This month hasn't been ideal but Christmas Eve 2015 there was a dew point of 72 in Wilmington. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Good grief has everyone collectively memory-holed December 2015 which to this day is the craziest month-long torch I've ever seen? This month hasn't been ideal but Christmas Eve 2015 there was a dew point of 72 in Wilmington. Yeah I remember it was 70 Christmas day here in the mountains. Short sleeves and grilling weather for sure. We actually had some back to back very warm Christmases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 When the NAO goes negative for a while, years, the PNA will go more positive(cycle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 The GFS is non stop SE ridge through January 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The GFS is non stop SE ridge through January 7. Yep it is a pretty solid bet for now. It's a bloodbath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yep it is a pretty solid bet for now. It's a bloodbath. It’ll relax in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Insane looking at the models for the next few days here. Starting Friday is another extended stretch of weather you’d more likely see in Orlando or Daytona, not Charleston. I wouldn’t be shocked to see 80° hit on Tuesday or Wednesday a little inland. Just bonkers how the warm air will not subside in the South this year, you almost forget that the average high is indeed around 60° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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