nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: For sure, kinda as if it replaced the GEFS for their respective 6z runs. Pretty acceptable lp mean given time to improve Thanks for posting. Do you have this plot for 00z? I subscribe to Pivotal and they have basically no EPS products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, 87storms said: I haven’t analyzed the 500 maps much but almost looks like a Jan 2000 situation on the gfs. Ah! Not carbon copies or anything but for sure strange and similar with the entire track/progression. I'll have to look at the Jan 2000 h5 maps tonight. Interesting. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah! Not carbon copies or anything but for sure strange and similar with the entire track/progression. I'll have to look at the Jan 2000 h5 maps tonight. Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday: Way different than the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Thanks for posting. Do you have this plot for 00z? I subscribe to Pivotal and they have basically no EPS products. Definitely a NW lean on 6z compared to 0z. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can anyone answer as to whether or not RAOB sites have improved for model data purposes out in sparse regions of Canada to help us with the vort inbound and timing purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, mappy said: Let me try and translate: 06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later You needed to lead your post with this: 5 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Another brutal western cutoff. You are killing us man. Actually we would take this in a heartbeat compared to what the Euro is saying. Pretty clear battle going on right now. GFS/ICON vs. Euro/CMC. Still a ton of time left though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! This is every storm though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: You needed to lead your post with this: Top 10 all time post right here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! Yeah, I’m gonna have to lean no storm on this one. Sorry everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You are killing us man. Actually we would take this in a heartbeat compared to what the Euro is saying. Pretty clear battle going on right now. GFS/ICON vs. Euro/CMC. Still a ton of time left though. C’mon man. It only showed a foot of snow. How can he be expected to be happy with that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Top 10 all time post right here. Yes...that was his BEST MEME EVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. The GFS did pretty well with the last two systems. Not saying this is the final solution by any means. But getting harder to just dismiss the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Interesting, but all options are on the table at this time for the Mid Atlantic Southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The GFS went from another Boxing Day 2010 to another January 2000 in the next run. Obviously this is all very far from certain and it's still being figured out but let's hope the final outcome is similar to this latest run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. Sage analysis.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ah, a buffet of goodies possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, benjammin said: Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. Thanks. I can only handle one DT post per day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Can anyone answer as to whether or not RAOB sites have improved for model data purposes out in sparse regions of Canada to help us with the vort inbound and timing purposes? With satellite sampling the argument for the data sparse regions is not as substantial as some make it out to be. Obviously, we'd rather have RAOBs - but satellites do a really good job of sampling in the holes between sample sites. Would argue that GOES and POES do way more to improve forecasts than adding one or two RAOB sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: Looks way more similar to Feb 2014 Yes. The 06Z GFS has that more classic Miller A track, which would equate to a more climo snowfall distribution. In other words, MBY here near Rte 50 east of 95 would more likely have some mixing potential than be in the max snow zone this time around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. He’s been beaten. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good morning y'all. Looking at guidance this morning, it's pretty prudent to lead with this potential setup is riddled with fine details and the probability that we are at the final solution is extremely low. In order for the sub-forum to get what the GFS just advertised, you need everything right in terms of 5H spacing, phasing timing, and thermodynamic structure to yield a scenario like that. Absolutely in no way am I saying it can't happen like that. The major storms, especially the historic storms all have that occur, but this isn't a split phased bomb where a southern jet gets merged with a NS vort. This is very much a deep digger, translating into a Miller B bomb that could climb the coast due to increased spacing between the TPV over Quebec and the second s/w progressing through the northern plains at the same time our storm is going off. Timing timing timing. It is everything with this setup, but there is absolutely an environment available for something truly special. We haven't even gotten into the fine details of frontogenic forcing, jet stream dynamics, complexities of LLJ structure and positioning. The big ones are special for a reason, so keep a level head and don't swing hard on each run. That's Ji's job 14 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?! Im a simple guy, do you have the funny precip map instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: The GFS went from another Boxing Day 2010 to another January 2000 in the next run. Obviously this is all very far from certain and it's still being figured out but let's hope the final outcome is similar to this latest run. Yep, and my guess is we are nowhere close to the way this will all evolve and major changes from run to run are still in store. I mean, look at the GFS now basically pushing the system back in time. It used to be a weekend system and now it's mostly a late Sunday/Monday storm now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, yoda said: This works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. Thanks for that Weather Will is going to post a deceptive accumulation map with 25 inches being gray and 100 inches being purple and say things look bad. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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