January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said:

FWIW the NYC crew also started a storm thread. (Move to banter if needed)

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Why would we need a storm thread for a cutter. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For posterity 

[WhiteoutMD]

Hope the GFS is right but WB 6Z GEFS support is minimal.

Bummer very little support for that extreme run at this point.


.

[CentralVaNATS]

GFS from 20th advertising 32° and below for the entire run. Then Texas goes into the icebox. Feb2021 again ???

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[Baltimorewx]

This looks like a tricky one that will bounce around on the modeling a good bit for a while. Flow is very volatile. Cutoff low too? Always tricky 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. 

Thanks for the update on your hopes.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Morning AFD from LWX (4am update)

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air
and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast.
Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings.

From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm.
A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the
long-wave trough over the region which could support intense
cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the
trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of
difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week
and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too
shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening
significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last
few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially
end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted
by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot,
but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the
next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the
disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy
remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly
data sparse area, which means guidance could change
significantly in any direction as better observational
information on the shortwave is included.

The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be
cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure
building in behind the front later this week, temps likely
struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly
Saturday.

This is a very useful disco. People should read this.

[winterymix]

Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white.  Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us.  Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4.   Stable reoccurring pattern.

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white.  Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us.  Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4.   Stable reoccurring pattern.

Did you have a stroke?  If so, sorry brother 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Can’t be posted enough

[Heisy]

17 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white.  Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us.  Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4.   Stable reoccurring pattern.

Wat

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white.  Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us.  Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4.   Stable reoccurring pattern.

So what you're saying is Monday's GFS is snowy and the pattern looks to be stable with occasional 2-4" snows in the advertised pattern....BRILLIANT!! Thanks Chance the Gardener

[North Balti Zen]

6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Wat

Yeah. It’s too early to take the LSD necessary to sort that out.

[Ji]

It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support.  Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way.  At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark.

Thanks for that

[Bob Chill]

Gfs has a southern stream type storm and track in the east but tracks first through Manitoba, Des Moines, St Louie. Not much of a jump/redevelop at all either. Not saying anything is impossible but when I can't recall a reasonable similar scenario at any time in the past, my doubt meter spikes. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yeah. It’s too early to take the LSD necessary to sort that out.

Maybe for you. Where I come from it's never too early for LSD. Maybe too early for 3 tabs tho... uh oh ... hmm.... brb

[H2O]

Bob Chill is almost out. That means I am also almost out

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Bob Chill is almost out. That means I am also almost out

I'll clarify. In on snow chance for weekend until it's confirmed no go. Out on the Miller B that cross dressed as a Miller A on the 6z gfs

[mappy]

47 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white.  Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us.  Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4.   Stable reoccurring pattern.

Let me try and translate:

06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Let me try and translate:

06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later

Let me try, chance of snow

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

The depictions  are historic suppression looking and I dont see a strong enough high in the  right place to do that 

In this case the suppression isn’t from surface pressure it’s from the mid and upper level steering currents. A combination of the trough axis being a bit too Far East and an amplifying tpv lobe to our northeast places a strong NW flow over the east that doesn’t relax until the system is too far southeast for us. Maybe that’s wrong but it’s the flow in the mid and upper levels we need to change.  

[yoda]

Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS 

[lpaschall]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Westminster jackpot...

[87storms]

I haven’t analyzed the 500 maps much but almost looks like a Jan 2000 situation on the gfs.

[IronTy]

Today I learned the word Toricity on the weather forums.  Apparently it's a real thing in eyeballs. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4142625/#:~:text=The toricity is usually defined,of the cornea42-44.

 

 

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS 

Yes!!!  6Z GFS compared to 6Z EPS…

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS 

For sure, kinda as if it replaced the GEFS for their respective 6z runs. Pretty acceptable lp mean given time to improve

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO Control also took a step toward GFS.

[Heisy]

On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC

Can the GFS win again?!

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday: