LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS is going to lead the way again boyz. The big ones are sniffed out early. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2009 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS is going to lead the way again boyz. The big ones are sniffed out early. Let's hope the ENS sniffs it out as wellSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Looks way more similar to Feb 2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Perfect Leesburg Lolly to even keep @Ji happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 lol the 3hr snow maps are porn at 147-153 as the deform band goes by... they are just silly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: 2009 Another brutal western cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ironically the ocean storm may be aiding in the digging west of the sw and its slower movement which sharpenes the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Another brutal western cutoff.That looks Ike a kocin. Snow from sc to new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The sw for the storm hits big sky country in 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX (4am update) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings. From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm. A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the long-wave trough over the region which could support intense cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot, but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly data sparse area, which means guidance could change significantly in any direction as better observational information on the shortwave is included. The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure building in behind the front later this week, temps likely struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies. Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. 1 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already. Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lol most useless chart 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Hope the GFS is right but WB 6Z GEFS support is minimal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so The 2 primary things to watch imo are the speed of the ocean low moving up towards the Maritimes, and timing/location that piece of energy dropping in over the ridge from Canada. Look at the position of that shortwave on the 6z GFS compared to a couple runs ago. It was acting like a kicker and on the latest run there is more spacing between it and the Maritimes low, allowing heights to build to our NE. It tries to partially phase, pulls the coastal further westward and it gains more latitude. Who knows if the GFS has the right idea here but it underscores the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Over the last few days there have been concerned about that ocean storm mucking up everything. I notice that the ocean storm is still there and moving out so have things changed in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lol Great post 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW the NYC crew also started a storm thread. One to our south and now to the north, that means we are in the cross hairs (Move to banter if needed)Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 hours ago, Interstate said: I think we might like this run a little better looking at the H5 panels I was two runs off. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: It tries to partially phase Was just looking at that. Watch the development over the past few runs with that. That happens? Oh boy, might be congrats Pittsburgh. Wintertime Sandy, inland version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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