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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Taken verbatim re 06z ICON snow amounts: 2" just SW of BWI out towards HGR... 4" line is near DCA out towards MRB... 6" by EZF and Warrenton and Luray and probably just south of Winchester.  Take as you wish

ETA:  Still snowing in a lot of areas at 120... so there would be some accumulations after 120.  06z ICON ends at 120

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Morning AFD from LWX (4am update)

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air
and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast.
Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings.

From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm.
A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the
long-wave trough over the region which could support intense
cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the
trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of
difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week
and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too
shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening
significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last
few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially
end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted
by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot,
but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the
next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the
disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy
remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly
data sparse area, which means guidance could change
significantly in any direction as better observational
information on the shortwave is included.

The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be
cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure
building in behind the front later this week, temps likely
struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly
Saturday.
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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, CAPE said:
Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.

Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities

When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved.

The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 

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Just now, CAPE said:

When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved.

The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 

We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either.  We should have that already. 

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either.  We should have that already. 

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

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