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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is a crazy step towards a MECS up into the sub-forum lat. Still a bit off, but the delay in s/w out west was beginning to allow enough time for the TPV over Quebec to move out and provide spacing for northward movement. A crazy shift in the setup for this run. It opens the door for a lot of possibilities, but we still need more confirmation from the ensembles to see if this COULD be a trend, or a blip on the radar. 

Verbatim, it's a potentially historic storm for NC and Upstate SC. Absolutely insane for them

I abscond.

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

CMC destroys South Carolina and Georgia instead of NC before recurving north and out to sea. Nada for us.  

That's a hint of the Feb 9-11, 1973 storm that brought 23" of snow to Sumter SC. Too bad I was only 2 1/2 and don't remember a thing about it. (My Dad was stationed at Shaw AFB at the time). 

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GFS looked promising to me, for day 7, and the Euro looks way too slow with the first low which is likely to be much further northwest into the Baffin Island region by day 6 not lingering off Labrador. 

There's almost zero storm potential on the Euro-CMC consensus but just one turn of the dial away from a good outcome on the GFS. Some ensemble members have that turn of the dial. 

Two factors may help. One is that low pressure connecting back from the arctic remnant of the first storm to the Great Lakes could drop an energy center into a good spot by day six. Another is that full moon is on Jan 17th. This brings several good analogues into play. I would look for gradual trending of all guidance towards a big storm in the region on Jan 17-18. 

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Taken verbatim re 06z ICON snow amounts: 2" just SW of BWI out towards HGR... 4" line is near DCA out towards MRB... 6" by EZF and Warrenton and Luray and probably just south of Winchester.  Take as you wish

ETA:  Still snowing in a lot of areas at 120... so there would be some accumulations after 120.  06z ICON ends at 120

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