psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody who even pretends they know what is going to happen or is even likely to happen if full of it. This is wild, huge swings It bugs me that 1980 keeps showing up in analog packages. What happened that year I hope to never have to experience. 2 HECS and 2 MECS storms all hit NC/VA and miss north of DC. But I know no 2 years are the same and my “fear of fringe” is clouding my judgement. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: It bugs me that 1980 keeps showing up in analog packages. What happened that year I hope to never have to experience. 2 HECS and 2 MECS storms all hit NC/VA and miss north of DC. But I know no 2 years are the same and my “fear of fringe” is clouding my judgement. This is unusual. Are you ok? 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: It bugs me that 1980 keeps showing up in analog packages. What happened that year I hope to never have to experience. 2 HECS and 2 MECS storms all hit NC/VA and miss north of DC. But I know no 2 years are the same and my “fear of fringe” is clouding my judgement. ETA: alsi I am biased towards wanting more amplified because if I miss a storm to the north at least it helps ski resorts and I can go find powered. A storm missing south does me absolutely no good in any way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is unusual. Are you ok? lol just admitting my bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the part in the ne is the part most likely to be wrong If the flow relaxes some it will be a big storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I'm ok with this, but than again I also did good boxing daySent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, alexderiemer said: I'm ok with this, but than again I also did good boxing day Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Ban this 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I turned to rain and had 0 snow at the end of 2016 if that makes u feel betterSent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Remember, they always come north. Well, except when they don't, but they ALMOST always come north. Okay, so maybe not almost, but they OFTEN come north..... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 every outcome under the sun possible on the p-type maps. I’ll let someone smarter properly analyze the goods but my rookie read was the GEFS looked more suppressed than previous runs. though of course noting this is still sorta early in the overall window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: every outcome under the sun possible on the p-type maps. I’ll let someone smarter properly analyze the goods but my rookie read was the GEFS looked more suppressed than previous runs. though of course noting this is still sorta early in the overall window All we care about right now are the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That is a crazy step towards a MECS up into the sub-forum lat. Still a bit off, but the delay in s/w out west was beginning to allow enough time for the TPV over Quebec to move out and provide spacing for northward movement. A crazy shift in the setup for this run. It opens the door for a lot of possibilities, but we still need more confirmation from the ensembles to see if this COULD be a trend, or a blip on the radar. Verbatim, it's a potentially historic storm for NC and Upstate SC. Absolutely insane for them I abscond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 All we care about right now are the precip maps I bet you care about this one too, and it is… surprisingly not that notable? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On the Gfs the vort diving in behind acting like a kicker doesn’t help either. Of course it’s unlikely to be there next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So somewhere between 0 and 42 inches of snow in the next 7 days layered with Covid vaccine fighting is what i have gathered from the last couple pages of comments. Seems about right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I bet you care about this one too, and it is… surprisingly not that notable? I’ll take P15. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I'm ok with this, but than again I also did good boxing day Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC destroys South Carolina and Georgia instead of NC before recurving north and out to sea. Nada for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The depictions are historic suppression looking and I dont see a strong enough high in the right place to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: CMC destroys South Carolina and Georgia instead of NC before recurving north and out to sea. Nada for us. That's a hint of the Feb 9-11, 1973 storm that brought 23" of snow to Sumter SC. Too bad I was only 2 1/2 and don't remember a thing about it. (My Dad was stationed at Shaw AFB at the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 No love from the Canadians tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, jaydreb said: No love from the Canadians tonight. Just fill in that white slot with some teal crayon and we are good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lolYou give up way too easily.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Guess that’s why no one in the SE board is posting the Euro. Suppressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Euro suppressed all the way to the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS looked promising to me, for day 7, and the Euro looks way too slow with the first low which is likely to be much further northwest into the Baffin Island region by day 6 not lingering off Labrador. There's almost zero storm potential on the Euro-CMC consensus but just one turn of the dial away from a good outcome on the GFS. Some ensemble members have that turn of the dial. Two factors may help. One is that low pressure connecting back from the arctic remnant of the first storm to the Great Lakes could drop an energy center into a good spot by day six. Another is that full moon is on Jan 17th. This brings several good analogues into play. I would look for gradual trending of all guidance towards a big storm in the region on Jan 17-18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 39 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Guess that’s why no one in the SE board is posting the Euro. Suppressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 After reading the past 4 pages of this thread I can say that this hobby is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just a tiny difference between the 06z ICON and the 00z ICON 06z ICON has snow moving into DCA at 111 (21z SAT). Snows for rest of the run at DCA. Sharp northern edge however (of course)... which is up by the M/D line as the run ends at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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