Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Mods!! Mods!!! Ban this heretic!!!!! Begone you!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Let’s try to get this back on track. 18z GEFS has a lot of nice hits for us (and nearby) for this weekend. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman98 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: Let’s try to get this back on track. 18z GEFS has a lot of nice hits for us (nearby) for this weekend. seems like 18z rgem displaces the friday system in line with the CMC. Not sure what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Sir, I'm gonna have to ask you to leave the forum for a timeout and think about what you did. Don't come out of your room until you feel sorry for what you did!! 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol Well Bostonians were laughing at our snow drought, and the snow gods didnt appreciate that........ 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. Had those weeklies been produced from today's 12z Run, would be a good bit colder and snowier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 The only warm air on the continent is in the tropics 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol I definitely do remember that one and that stretch. And there was a time when guidance was too far south with NS SWs more often then not. It wasn’t 100% though. A couple weeks after the storm you’re referencing there was a NS wave that teased us a week out then got suppressed. Everyone was too busy celebrating a 3-5” snow that fringed me to worry about it. The last 5 years though it seems things are just as likely to go south as north. I can think of 2 similar setups in recent years that ended up suppressed. I think it just seems stuff goes north because we do miss way more storms to the north simply because we’re pretty far south for snow so there is always more chance of the boundary being north of us than south. In this case it’s all about the spacing. If that amplifying wave to our northeast moves out quicker or is weaker or if the system diving in slows down to increase spacing it will trend north. If the spacing gets worse it will stay south. ETA: but I definitely think it’s still true that you cannot trust guidance on where to place a NS feature at longer leads. South or north the SW is unlikely to be exactly where they think right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. 3 weeks of a great pattern and your headline is “pattern relaxes” 4 weeks from now! You’re becoming too predictable 5 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I apologize for my sins. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3 weeks of a great pattern and your headline is “pattern relaxes” 4 weeks from now! You’re becoming too predictable In some of our crap winters we look weeks out for a pattern change that’s always “3-4 weeks” away. Then bam! The pattern changes and it’s April lol. Maybe we kick the reset until April this year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Amped said: Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast. That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted. One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast. TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, jayyy said: I apologize for my sins. A man enters the confessional of the priest of the snow gods. The priest begins with his typical blessing, “may the flakes be forever in your favor, what are your sons my son”. The man admits to having brought up December 2000. The priest tells him “say 3 blessings of the NAO and take one drink of the holy water and you will be forgiven. The next man enters the confessional. The priest repeats his blessing and asks what his sins are. The man admits to bringing up March 2001. The priest says “say 5 PNA creeds and take 2 drinks of holy water on your way out and you will be forgiven. A third man enters and after the blessing confesses that he brought up both Boxing Day and March 2013. The priest cringes but says “my son say 10 blessings of thy Devine arctic oscillation and take 3 drinks of holy water on the way out and you will be forgiven. Lastly a fourth man enters the confessional and after the blessing just grins at the priest and remains silent. The priest says “well my son, what are your sins”. And the man grins some more and says “oh I just peed in the holy water”. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February.Which probably means 2nd week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. Which probably means 2nd week The euro has been trying to revert to a canonical Nina pacific week 3 all winter. Same way it was doing that with the Nino in 2019. I’m sure eventually it will be 2 weeks ago the euro was saying by now we would already be back into an awful pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 How about the headline “EPS thinks DC has above normal snow by Feb 10!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The euro has been trying to revert to a canonical Nina pacific week 3 all winter. Same way it was doing that with the Nino in 2019. I’m sure eventually it will be 2 weeks ago the euro was saying by now we would already be back into an awful pattern. Same thing with MOS guidance revert to climo temps by D6. Folks need to just take things a week at a time and don't wish away decent patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Anyone have maps or thoughts from 18z euro for Sat storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. This. And that’s the feature I think will move out quicker than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone have maps or thoughts from 18z euro for Sat storm? The euro op doesn’t go out far enough. The SW is just entering ND when the run ends. The 18z is slower with both the ocean system and the NS SW over New England but also the SW diving in from western Canada so that’s a wash. I can’t say how it would shake out but I dont see anything that screams to me better or worse than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: The euro op doesn’t go out far enough. The SW is just entering ND when the run ends. The 18z is slower with both the ocean system and the NS SW over New England but also the SW diving in from western Canada so that’s a wash. I can’t say how it would shake out but I dont see anything that screams to me better or worse than 12z. Doesn’t the eps run to 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 I can’t imagine what the wind in the maritimes is gonna be like. There’s nearly an 80mb difference in about 750 miles on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Doesn’t the eps run to 144? Yes but not past 12 hours yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother. Yea, I'm not sure that post was well thought through. Now I have to root for union bridge busts. I didn't make these rules. Just following. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Doesn’t the eps run to 144? Yes but it doesnt start running until like 7:45, it's out to like 36 hours or so right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. Ehh I had 85 hours in a truck last week between the two storms, not complaining for a little break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. I’d feel worse if an op does that. We are still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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