January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[jayyy]

I apologize for my sins. 

[SnowGolfBro]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3 weeks of a great pattern and your headline is “pattern relaxes” 4 weeks from now!  You’re becoming too predictable 

In some of our crap winters we look weeks out for a pattern change that’s always “3-4 weeks” away. Then bam! The pattern changes and it’s April lol.  Maybe we kick the reset until April this year! 

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.

That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. 

While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted.

One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast.

TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw 

 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I apologize for my sins. 

A man enters the confessional of the priest of the snow gods. The priest begins with his typical blessing, “may the flakes be forever in your favor, what are your sons my son”. The man admits to having brought up December 2000. The priest tells him “say 3 blessings of the NAO and take one drink of the holy water and you will be forgiven. 
 

The next man enters the confessional. The priest repeats his blessing and asks what his sins are. The man admits to bringing up March 2001. The priest says “say 5 PNA creeds and take 2 drinks of holy water on your way out and you will be forgiven. 
 

A third man enters and after the blessing confesses that he brought up both Boxing Day and March 2013. The priest cringes but says “my son say 10 blessings of thy Devine arctic oscillation and take 3 drinks of holy water on the way out and you will be forgiven. 
 

Lastly a fourth man enters the confessional and after the blessing just grins at the priest and remains silent. The priest says “well my son, what are your sins”. And the man grins some more and says “oh I just peed in the holy water”. 
 

 

[Ji]

WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February.

Which probably means 2nd week

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February.

Which probably means 2nd week

The euro has been trying to revert to a canonical Nina pacific week 3 all winter. Same way it was doing that with the Nino in 2019. I’m sure eventually it will be 2 weeks ago the euro was saying by now we would already be back into an awful pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

How about the headline “EPS thinks DC has above normal snow by Feb 10!”  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro has been trying to revert to a canonical Nina pacific week 3 all winter. Same way it was doing that with the Nino in 2019. I’m sure eventually it will be 2 weeks ago the euro was saying by now we would already be back into an awful pattern. 

Same thing with MOS guidance revert to climo temps by D6. Folks need to just take things a week at a time and don't wish away decent patterns.

[Buddy1987]

Anyone have maps or thoughts from 18z euro for Sat storm? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things.

This. And that’s the feature I think will move out quicker than modeled 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Anyone have maps or thoughts from 18z euro for Sat storm? 

The euro op doesn’t go out far enough. The SW is just entering ND when the run ends. The 18z is slower with both the ocean system and the NS SW over New England but also the SW diving in from western Canada so that’s a wash.  I can’t say how it would shake out but I dont see anything that screams to me better or worse than 12z. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The euro op doesn’t go out far enough. The SW is just entering ND when the run ends. The 18z is slower with both the ocean system and the NS SW over New England but also the SW diving in from western Canada so that’s a wash.  I can’t say how it would shake out but I dont see anything that screams to me better or worse than 12z. 

Doesn’t the eps run to 144?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I can’t imagine what the wind in the maritimes is gonna be like. There’s nearly an 80mb difference in about 750 miles on the gfs.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Doesn’t the eps run to 144?

Yes but not past 12 hours yet 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother.

Yea, I'm not sure that post was well thought through. Now I have to root for union bridge busts. I didn't make these rules. Just following. 

[Heisy]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Doesn’t the eps run to 144?

Yes but it doesnt start running until like 7:45, it's out to like 36 hours or so right now 

[psuhoffman]

18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. 

[jewell2188]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. 

Ehh I had 85 hours in a truck last week between the two storms, not complaining for a little break.

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z eps is a pretty big step in the wrong direction. Both the ocean storm and tpv lobe trended west and more amplified which creates an even more suppressive flow. This one is bleeding the wrong way right now that’s for sure. Ggem looks best but it had a cutter 24 hours ago. Everything’s trending towards less spacing. 

I’d feel worse if an op does that. We are still a long way out.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. 

While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted.

One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast.

TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw 

 

CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us.  I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us.  I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.

 

 

 

I don’t think this was ever gonna be more than a 2-4 clipper 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d feel worse if an op does that. We are still a long way out.

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 

This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 

But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

@CAPE

You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. 

This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see...

Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

I went back and dug that up a couple winters ago. Just epic. Instant classic, and maybe the best series of posts ever made here.

[Ji]

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 
This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 
But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

Blue over us at 500 isnt always a unicorn

[Ji]

Now that's a strong winter killing pv!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2022011018&fh=0

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 
This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 
But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

Blue over us at 500 isnt always a unicorn

Yea often a day before an event we want ridging if there is already cold locked in. Note the look I liked a lot more has a lot less blue. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Now that's a strong winter killing pv!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2022011018&fh=0

Thank god we don’t live at 10 mb. Plus it gets displaced in a few days then elongated and stretched in the long range. Furthermore it’s not coupled well to the TPV which is what impacts us a lot more.  The PV isn’t very high on my list of problems right now. 

[psuhoffman]

This is the kind of pattern where I fully expect something to become a clear discreet threat while we’re busy lamenting something else. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the kind of pattern where I fully expect something to become a clear discreet threat while we’re busy lamenting something else. 

This Friday....shades of Jan 25, 2000 

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think this was ever gonna be more than a 2-4 clipper 

Got a high in the perfect spot, a 50/50 low and the shortwave is a well defined 540-546 split. This is usually how a KU storm starts, not saying it will happen though.