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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm.

I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol.

What made the storm (fail) so memorable was Boston had like 10 feet of snow already and we had basically nothing. Every damn storm missed and went north and every damn storm dumped a mountain.  Then Vday weekend came along and cleared the table of that ish. The rest nobody forgets. Haha

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS.  Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo.

1642248000-z7x6DMhbCKE.png

It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. 

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS.  Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo.

1642248000-z7x6DMhbCKE.png

Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What made the storm (fail) so memorable was Boston had like 10 feet of snow already and we had basically nothing. Every damn storm missed and went north and every damn storm dumped a mountain.  Then Vday weekend came along and cleared the table of that ish. The rest nobody forgets. Haha

What's funny is that I still distinctly remember the two very cold Februaries we had...2007 and 2015.  Both were like -7 to -8 degree departures, and I think 2015 was overall colder.  Both had a "key event" around V-Day.  In 2007, we just missed a major MECS/HECS level event but still ended up with a big sleet and ice storm that turned into a glacier for the next couple of weeks.  In 2015, we got the burst of snow along that Arctic front (Bob, I believe you said you were out in the garage grilling while that snow was falling?!).  As I've said a few times before, if we had gotten hit with the V-Day storm in 2007, we would have considered that one of the better winters in memory.  To me, it was still a fine season overall and I think that February with the cold is a big reason for it.  But it gets overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow.  In 2015, it's as if we had a "re-do", we got the cold and snow that February (into early March).

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. 

A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's? 

I will edit this to mention the 2014 clipper. But that one was nowhere close to that thing being modeled. 

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27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Imagine living in the Canadian Maritimes watching that beast off shore sizing you up. The blizzard that thing is gonna create is gonna be legendary if it comes to fruition.

I'll be living in north eastern New Brunswick (close to PEI and Nova Scotia) starting in late 2023. I am looking forward to the storms up there.

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's?

There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. 

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now.

Eric basically drooled on his tweets this AM lol

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. 

 

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)?  I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)?  I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

That's the one! That thing laid a nice fresh powder from the Alleghany front to the bay. All of northern MD got hit pretty good. I couldn't believe my eyes when I peered out the window that morning. It was still snowing. NWS had to be playing serious catchup. No one was even in an Advisory. They almost had warning criteria near the MD line. 

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm.

I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol.

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb

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So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 
Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

Oh no, that’s out of bounds…
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

They should ban you for posting that image.

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