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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. 

A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's? 

I will edit this to mention the 2014 clipper. But that one was nowhere close to that thing being modeled. 

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27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Imagine living in the Canadian Maritimes watching that beast off shore sizing you up. The blizzard that thing is gonna create is gonna be legendary if it comes to fruition.

I'll be living in north eastern New Brunswick (close to PEI and Nova Scotia) starting in late 2023. I am looking forward to the storms up there.

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's?

There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. 

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now.

Eric basically drooled on his tweets this AM lol

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. 

 

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)?  I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)?  I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed.

That's the one! That thing laid a nice fresh powder from the Alleghany front to the bay. All of northern MD got hit pretty good. I couldn't believe my eyes when I peered out the window that morning. It was still snowing. NWS had to be playing serious catchup. No one was even in an Advisory. They almost had warning criteria near the MD line. 

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm.

I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol.

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb

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So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 
Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

Oh no, that’s out of bounds…
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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

They should ban you for posting that image.

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12 minutes ago, jayyy said:

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 

Mods!! Mods!!! Ban this heretic!!!!! Begone you!!

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31 minutes ago, jayyy said:

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother. :)

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32 minutes ago, jayyy said:

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total.
 

Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 7CA44328-B7B2-49B5-8F05-F66F6B31EAAD.thumb.jpeg.ce90d9ca6de1452e64579aa8b6815b7d.jpeg

Sir, I'm gonna have to ask you to leave the forum for a timeout and think about what you did. Don't come out of your room until you feel sorry for what you did!! :weep:

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

@CAPE

You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. 

This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see...

Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

Well Bostonians were laughing at our snow drought, and the snow gods didnt appreciate that........

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

@CAPE

You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. 

This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see...

Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

I definitely do remember that one and that stretch. And there was a time when guidance was too far south with NS SWs more often then not. It wasn’t 100% though. A couple weeks after the storm you’re referencing there was a NS wave that teased us a week out then got suppressed. Everyone was too busy celebrating a 3-5” snow that fringed me to worry about it. 
 

The last 5 years though it seems things are just as likely to go south as north. I can think of 2 similar setups in recent years that ended up suppressed.  I think it just seems stuff goes north because we do miss way more storms to the north simply because we’re pretty far south for snow so there is always more chance of the boundary being north of us than south. 
 

In this case it’s all about the spacing. If that amplifying wave to our northeast moves out quicker or is weaker or if the system diving in slows down to increase spacing it will trend north. If the spacing gets worse it will stay south. 
 

ETA: but I definitely think it’s still true that you cannot trust guidance on where to place a NS feature at longer leads. South or north the SW is unlikely to be exactly where they think right now. 

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