clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's? I will edit this to mention the 2014 clipper. But that one was nowhere close to that thing being modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Imagine living in the Canadian Maritimes watching that beast off shore sizing you up. The blizzard that thing is gonna create is gonna be legendary if it comes to fruition. I'll be living in north eastern New Brunswick (close to PEI and Nova Scotia) starting in late 2023. I am looking forward to the storms up there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast. And the fact that it is speeding up each run isn't helping us either. So much potential if it just had room to breathe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Only a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Only a matter of time We say it a lot but at day 6 right where we want it. If it showed a massive mauler for us I would be nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: A real Manitoba Mauler. I cant remember the last one. Maybe in the 80's? There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Eric Webb and Alan Huffman are probably salivating right now. Eric basically drooled on his tweets this AM lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 GFS bias is typically too strong and too far south with ns energy and too slow in the ne to move them out. If those two are in play here, we are probably gonna like the result. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, MillvilleWx said: There was one back in 2003 that hit out of nowhere I remember. The forecast was light snow possible with less than 1" expected. Woke up at 545am to a WWA and 3" of snow with a 2 hr delay for school. That winter just snowed anytime it wanted to. Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)? I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Was that the one in January (a month or so before the PD-II storm)? I remember a cold powder clipper type event sometime that month that over-performed. That's the one! That thing laid a nice fresh powder from the Alleghany front to the bay. All of northern MD got hit pretty good. I couldn't believe my eyes when I peered out the window that morning. It was still snowing. NWS had to be playing serious catchup. No one was even in an Advisory. They almost had warning criteria near the MD line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS bias is typically too strong and too far south with ns energy and too slow in the ne to move them out. If those two are in play here, we are probably gonna like the result. And Park Place too 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And Park Place too Nahhh, go for the cheapie properties! Baltic Ave. and Mediterranean Ave.! Or Connecticut/Vermont/Oriental Ave.! You can put up hotels on those much faster and start raking it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And Park Place too You’ll be begging for low rent by the time I’m done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ll be begging for low rent by the time I’m done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Statistical analysis shows that the orange properties have the best ROI for what it's worth, likely due to their proximity to the jail. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm. I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol. So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Oh no, that’s out of bounds… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb They should ban you for posting that image. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Mods!! Mods!!! Ban this heretic!!!!! Begone you!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Let’s try to get this back on track. 18z GEFS has a lot of nice hits for us (and nearby) for this weekend. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman98 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: Let’s try to get this back on track. 18z GEFS has a lot of nice hits for us (nearby) for this weekend. seems like 18z rgem displaces the friday system in line with the CMC. Not sure what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Yeah. You probably should have taken that little nugget to your Mid Atlantic Subforum grave brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb Sir, I'm gonna have to ask you to leave the forum for a timeout and think about what you did. Don't come out of your room until you feel sorry for what you did!! 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol Well Bostonians were laughing at our snow drought, and the snow gods didnt appreciate that........ 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. Had those weeklies been produced from today's 12z Run, would be a good bit colder and snowier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 The only warm air on the continent is in the tropics 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol I definitely do remember that one and that stretch. And there was a time when guidance was too far south with NS SWs more often then not. It wasn’t 100% though. A couple weeks after the storm you’re referencing there was a NS wave that teased us a week out then got suppressed. Everyone was too busy celebrating a 3-5” snow that fringed me to worry about it. The last 5 years though it seems things are just as likely to go south as north. I can think of 2 similar setups in recent years that ended up suppressed. I think it just seems stuff goes north because we do miss way more storms to the north simply because we’re pretty far south for snow so there is always more chance of the boundary being north of us than south. In this case it’s all about the spacing. If that amplifying wave to our northeast moves out quicker or is weaker or if the system diving in slows down to increase spacing it will trend north. If the spacing gets worse it will stay south. ETA: but I definitely think it’s still true that you cannot trust guidance on where to place a NS feature at longer leads. South or north the SW is unlikely to be exactly where they think right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest weeklies, pattern relaxes during first week of February. 3 weeks of a great pattern and your headline is “pattern relaxes” 4 weeks from now! You’re becoming too predictable 5 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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