psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 EPS day 15… big picture so long as these 3 features in the pac keep reloading we will have a favorable pattern. No sign of it breaking down through day 15. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12z ensembles snow means for those emotionally affected by such things. geps Gefs eps 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I know some people are interested in instant satisfaction with the coming pattern, but this is one where Mother Nature is loading her shotgun with buck shot and not a slug. There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It’s a pattern that will have the chance to yield both smaller events and big kahuna’s. There’s gonna be a monster in this setup for somewhere in the east. With so many distinct 5H vorts parading through the flow, that storm is unlikely to be captured at long leads. Take a break from model watching and browse every so often. It’s going to be headfake city until the N HEMI pattern is fully established in a week. I would be shocked if the Mid Atlantic came away with nothing, but even some small events can make the area feel wintry. . Very good points, Millville. The main take-away I have, really, is pretty much what you say here...as long as we have a good, long window with opportunities, that's all we can really think about right now. And not chase individual things that pop up in deterministic models >4 days out. The only thing I take issue with is this:There’s gonna be waves zipping through the pattern like cars on the Capital Beltway at 700pm on a Friday. It's physically not possible for cars on the Beltway to "zip through" at any time of day!! Perhaps a better analogy might be "...zipping through the pattern faster than Ji can declare every model run a disaster!" Hope you are doing well and had a good Holiday season! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 STJ moisture is good Jan 22-26 it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS REALLY likes that threat around the 20th. That’s the one the Gfs turned into the BECS the other day. I'm almost wanna get to the weekend just to see if we can track the next week/weekend a...and leave the snowcane mess to do...whatever, lol (would be nice to get a small/moderate event out of that, though). Feels like I've seen the Euro, gfs, and cmc trying to sniff out something...but of course, still way out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol 18 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18z Icon juiced up at 96 with LP in southern IL. Canadian at 12z had much less moisture until about 6-12 hrs later. Both have the LP placement relatively similar (Icon just a tad southeast of CMC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman @CAPE You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see... Yup, I definitely remember that particular storm. For awhile and for several model runs it looked good for us, and there was a fair bit of excitement. Sometime not long before the event (a few days), the 18Z deterministic GFS was still looking fine and you put up a sort of warning post saying, "Guys, don't look at the 18Z GEFS ensembles!" Sure enough, the ensembles didn't look good for here and from there after it was clear the event was going more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And imma need boardwalk and all 4 RRs. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And imma need boardwalk and all 4 RRs. There are 4 of me?. You guys can’t handle 1. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 18z Icon juiced up at 96 with LP in southern IL. Canadian at 12z had much less moisture until about 6-12 hrs later. Both have the LP placement relatively similar (Icon just a tad southeast of CMC) Edit: then the similarities completely disappear at 108. LP over WV at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The EPO goes "way" negative week 2. Similar GEFS plot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 ICON is a nice hit, light/moderate daytime event with temps dropping as the snow falls. Sign me up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 That memory many of you have for forecast failures astounds me. I remember bust events, but I have almost no memory of something that looked good on progs at some point and was clearly a miss by day X. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON is a nice hit, light/moderate daytime event with temps dropping as the snow falls. Sign me up. Snow and falling temps are great. Cold powder with no temp worries. Deep winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That memory many of you have for forecast failures astounds me. I remember bust events, but I have almost no memory of something that looked good on progs at some point and was clearly a miss by day X. Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm. I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And imma need boardwalk and all 4 RRs. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Imagine living in the Canadian Maritimes watching that beast off shore sizing you up. The blizzard that thing is gonna create is gonna be legendary if it comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 12z ensembles snow means for those emotionally affected by such things. geps Gefs eps I'd be pissed if I lived in the NE or Great lakes considering this is 15 days in the heart of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Boxing Day is the one that I immediately think of, mostly because I remember it was so close to a big Christmas storm. I also think I remember the one Chill is talking about because it was Super Bowl weekend. It usually takes a holiday or something for me to remember it. I choose to stuff my brain with good memories instead, lol. What made the storm (fail) so memorable was Boston had like 10 feet of snow already and we had basically nothing. Every damn storm missed and went north and every damn storm dumped a mountain. Then Vday weekend came along and cleared the table of that ish. The rest nobody forgets. Haha 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Man that winter hurricane is gonna be a hell of a storm for the Canadians up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS. Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS. Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo. It was looking good, but just did not go negative in time. NC does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS. Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo. It's a Carolina mauler on this run, but heights over the NE are higher. GFS still favoring a SE US strike. A crazy powerful s/w trough that drops out of Manitoba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Now that it shows the south getting a snowstorm, I’m much more interested and positive about our chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS. Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo. Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: It was looking good, but just did not go negative in time. NC does well Yeah, the changes on the ATL side were the first positive move in several runs. Still a ways to go for this to go negative and be our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What made the storm (fail) so memorable was Boston had like 10 feet of snow already and we had basically nothing. Every damn storm missed and went north and every damn storm dumped a mountain. Then Vday weekend came along and cleared the table of that ish. The rest nobody forgets. Haha What's funny is that I still distinctly remember the two very cold Februaries we had...2007 and 2015. Both were like -7 to -8 degree departures, and I think 2015 was overall colder. Both had a "key event" around V-Day. In 2007, we just missed a major MECS/HECS level event but still ended up with a big sleet and ice storm that turned into a glacier for the next couple of weeks. In 2015, we got the burst of snow along that Arctic front (Bob, I believe you said you were out in the garage grilling while that snow was falling?!). As I've said a few times before, if we had gotten hit with the V-Day storm in 2007, we would have considered that one of the better winters in memory. To me, it was still a fine season overall and I think that February with the cold is a big reason for it. But it gets overlooked because we didn't get a lot of snow. In 2015, it's as if we had a "re-do", we got the cold and snow that February (into early March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Now that it shows the south getting a snowstorm, I’m much more interested and positive about our chances. Traveling early this weekend - is this a this weekend thing still or past Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Baby steps on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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